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Big Data at BBVA Research

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Big Data Workshop on economics and finance. Bank of Spain: 1. Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research; 2. Big Data & Big Models: Applying Big Data at BBVA Research (BBVA Data, News Data (GDELT), Policy Documents).

Available in English

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Banking Outlook. February 2018

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While the deleveraging of the banking system appears to be nearing its end, the number of employees and branches in the sector continues to fall. Solvency and asset quality have further improved. Income remains somewhat weak affected by current interest rates and spending is controlled, but the sector is feeling the impact of the Banco Popular resolution.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Reaching the 2019 deficit target will require additional fiscal adjustments

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The recovery of activity and a strong control of spending anticipate the compliance with the stability target of 2017. With a broadly neutral fiscal stance for 2018 and 2019, Spain will exit the excessive deficit protocol, but it could fail to achieve its targets.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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China | ODI from the Middle Kingdom: What’s next after the big turnaround?

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China’s ODI saw a big turnaround as its strong growth momentum in 2016 came to a halt last year due to the authorities’ restrictive measures to curb capital outflows. We use a deal-based database by CGTI to detect where China’s ODI goes. Despite uncertain global political and economic environment, outbound investment by Chinese firms is likely to rise over the long term.

Available in English

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Argentina Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The economy will grow 3.3% in each of the next 2 years driven by investment and increased external demand, particularly from Brazil and China. Inflation will continue to fall slowly but convergence to the goals will remain a challenge for the Central Bank. It is key to monitor the evolution of the twin deficits (fiscal and external).

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Higher oil prices in 2017 helped to improve the fiscal and external balances

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Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from the manufacturing export sector.

Available in Spanish, English

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Synthetic inflation indicator in the Eurozone, closing the gap in a sustained manner

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Unconventional measures taken by the ECB and the combination of several events on multiple fronts are contributing, in a very gradual way, to the pushing up of inflation, although it is a long way from getting back to the ECB’s target. Once the ECB is more confident on achieving the sustained adjustment on the path of inflation, it will adjust its forward guidance.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Fall in inflation the start of a downwards trend

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As widely expected, annual inflation declines sharply in January.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Turkey | Activity beats expectations in 4Q17

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Industrial production (IP) grew by 8.7% yoy (cal. adj.) in December 2017 above the market call of near 7%. Hence, the moderation in IP proved to be limited with 7.8% annual growth in 4Q after 10.2% growth in 3Q. We maintain our 2017 GDP growth estimate at 7% with risks on the upside while the economy may moderate towards near 4.5% in 2018.

Available in English

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China | A sharp drop of trade surplus and continuously increasing foreign reserve

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The authorities have released trade data today and foreign reverses data yesterday, pointing to a mixing picture of the country’s external balance amid global uncertainties. On the trade front, imports significantly rocketed to 36.9% in terms of USD, narrowing trade balance significantly. On the other hand, foreign reserve has increased in 12 consecutive months.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest - January 2018

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President Trump gave his first State of the Union speech in the Congress to highlight his administration’s policies. Rivalry between Washington and Russia/China and the intention to contain Iran and North Korea have been revealed once again in his remarks. Europe remained calm, while some hot spots were observed in Latin America and Asia.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Inflation fell on base effects as expected

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Consumer prices increased by 1.02% (mom) in January, higher than our forecast (0.75%) but lower than the market call (1.3%). Annual consumer inflation fell to 10.35% from 11.92% thanks to favorable base effects mostly on food. We expect the headline to ease slightly below 10% by end 1Q but then show some volatility before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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Spain Regional Watch. First quarter 2018

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The progressive deceleration of domestic demand and foreign tourism, together with an improvement in the export sector of goods and the effects of Catalan political tension, bias the growth towards the peninsular center. The unemployment rate will approach minimums at the end of 2019 in some Autonomous Communities.

Available in Spanish

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United States Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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In an environment of persistently low inflation and real equilibrium interest rates, the Fed will not be able to raise rates much further, limiting the space to cut interest rates during the next downturn. On average, the Fed has cut interest rates by 500 basis points during recessions.

Available in English

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Mexico | Inflation: January CPI forecast

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Following the positive surprise in 1H January, our forecast for the January headline inflation print is 0.40% MoM, translating into a 5.40% YoY number (1.4pp lower than in December).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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