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U.S. | Weekly podcast: personal income, spending and consumer confidence

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 26, 2017

Geographies:USA

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U.S. | When Robots Do It All and Leisure is Mandatory: Not for another 100 years

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Advancements in machine learning, mobile robotics, and computing power have led to machines that are increasingly capable of performing non-routine tasks and navigating in real time. Artificial intelligence is gaining traction as an attractive investment within the tech industry

Available in English

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Eurozone | Growth momentum stabilizes in 2Q at high levels

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GDP growth was revised up to 0.6% QoQ (+0.1pp) in Q1, while improving industrial production along with very strong confidence suggest that the growth momentum will remain steady in Q2 (MICA-BBVA: 0.6%). Recently, foreign trade and retail sales have moderated slightly. Headline and core inflation declined in May, reversing the Easter calendar effect and remain subdued.

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain | 2Q17 indicators point to upward bias in growth

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The Spanish economy gained traction throughout the first half of the year. Quarterly GDP growth is estimated to accelerate up to 1.0% in 2Q17. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply an upward bias in growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (0.8% QoQ) for the current quarter and (3.0%) for the whole of 2017.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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La Rioja Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of La Rioja grew 1.5% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 2.9% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 5,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 10.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: new and existing home sales

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 19, 2017. Special topic: review of the most recent economic developments

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Global | The recovery shows signs of stabilisation

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Global GDP growth continues to improve in Q2 (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) but with signs of stabilization. Confidence data remain very strong, but are levelling off and the upward trend in exports and industrial output has moderated at the beginning of Q2. Moreover, the latest data suggest that positive signs are shifting from the US and China to Europe and other emerging economies

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | The CBRT Keeps the Hawkish Tone

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The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the entire set of its interest rate corridor unchanged. The Bank also preserved the hawkish tone by over looking the expected disinflationary impacts of the fall in energy prices and partial correction in food prices. We expect the Bank to keep the average funding rate close to 12% until the next monetary policy meeting in July.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Available in English

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

Available in English

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Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

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Budget balances and public debt in Spain showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011. Despite the fiscal consolidation implemented since then, the increase in public debt has also considerable costs in terms of GDP, employment and private investment.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: Another Positive Growth Surprise

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1Q17 GDP surprised positively by growing 5% YoY compared to the market (3.4%) and our expectations (3.2%). Net exports and public spending were the main drivers of growth while the positive surprise factor was the solid private consumption growth. The risks on our 3% whole year growth forecast are clearly on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: inflation, retail sales and the upcoming FOMC meeting

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 12, 2017. Special topic: upcoming FOMC meeting

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Turkey | Monthly Banking Monitor. May 2017

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High momentum in commercial credits of Turkish banking sector supported by Credit Guarantee Fund continued in May, carrying credit Growth (YoY) to 17.3% level. On consumer credits side, housing and general purpose loans (GPL) remained strong. Continuing rise in deposit interest rates indicates the increased demand for deposits in this high credit growth environment.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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ECB Watch: A first tweak in the forward guidance

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The ECB remove the easing bias on rates. Growth projections are more positive while the inflation outlook remains unchanged despite lower headline inflation projections. In September, we expect the ECB to open the door to tapering next year

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: IP signals private demand recovery

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April industrial production (IP) data signals that the economic activity is gaining momentum in 2Q17. Our monthly GDP indicator confirms this with a growth rate close to 4% YoY by April, marginally higher than our 1Q17 growth expectation of 3.2%. All in all, we maintain our 2017 growth estimate at 3% with risks on the upside.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The economy of Madrid grew 3.7% in 2016, and will still grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 135,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.4%. Although pre-crisis GDP and GDP per head level have already been recovered, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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U.S. | From bricks to clicks: e-commerce of today

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E-commerce has enjoyed rapid growth both in quantity and in variety. Still, both online only and traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are important players for total retail sales. In the future, brick-and-mortar stores should make better use of human resources and focus on high value-added services

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey Inflation: Worst is over but it’s early for complacency

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Annual consumer inflation marginally fell for the first time after 6 months to 11.7% from 11.9% in April. Core inflation remained stable at 9.4% despite the ongoing exchange rate pass-through. We expect the headline to fall towards 11-11.5% band in June and remain at double digits before falling to 9% at the year-end.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Portugal: growth once again surprise positively in 1Q17

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The growth rate of the Portuguese economy in 1Q17 accelerated to 1.0% QoQ, surpassing the BBVA Research estimate (0.2% QoQ). The quarterly growth was due to the positive contribution of external demand (0.8pp), given the strength exports have once again shown in a context of import slowdown.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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