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Banking Outlook. March 2017

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In this issue we review: Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector. Spanish banks’ ROE, COE and P/BV ratio. Evolution of the financial burden of families in Europe. Management of non-performing assets in Europe. Peru: deposits in soles and exchange rate expectations.

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

By , , ,

We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: 100th episode and GDP

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 27, 2017. Special topic: 100th episode!

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Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

By , , , ,

After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Available in Spanish, English

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Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Balearic Islands grew 3.2% in 2016, and will still grow 2.6% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, creating some 32,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Recovering pre-crisis per capita income, and creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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U.S. | Big data analysis: Trump effect on trade narratives

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Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: auto and housing industries

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 20, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. auto industry

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Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

By , , , ,

Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain | The recovery continues in 2017

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The recovery of the Spanish economy continues. Quarterly GDP growth is expected to stand around 0.8% in 1Q17, compared to the 0.7% recorded at 2H16. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply a slight upward bias on the 2017 growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (2.7 %). However, expectations of a slowdown relative to 2016 remain.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico is not out of the woods yet, but things could go well

By , ,

The outlook has improved notably in the last two months. There are still two possible outcomes, but things are now more likely to go well

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Turkey: Central Bank strengthened tightening

By , ,

Slightly below market and our expectations, the Central Bank (CBRT) increased late liquidity window (LLW) rate to 11.75% from 11% and kept the rest of the interest rates constant. After already breaching double digits, expectations of further significant increase in inflation is noted as the main driver of today’s decision.

Available in English

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Galicia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Galicia grew 3.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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China | Strong start to 2017 but headwinds abound

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Last year’s recovery continued into 2017. The latest data releases point towards another month of strong growth. In particular, Fixed asset investments and industrial production strengthened in February, while trade figures improved in line with a pickup in global trade. We expect growth to edge down towards 6.0-6.5% by year-end as headwinds continue.

Available in English

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Portugal: GDP growth forecasts for 2018 reviewed upwards to 1.7%

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Growth of the Portuguese economy in 4Q16 reached 0.6% QoQ1, once again causing positive surprise (BBVA Research forecast 0.3% QoQ), albeit lower than that seen in the previous quarter (0.9% QoQ). As a result Portugal ended 2016 with GDP growth of 1.4% YoY, less than the 1.6% YoY posted in 2015, but slightly more than the BBVA Research forecast of mid-2016 (1.2%).

Geographies:Portugal
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U.S. | Weekly podcast: trade deficit, interest rates and inflation

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 13, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. trade deficit

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Mexico | What is the US trade deficit with Mexico really saying?

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State trade data for the US revealed that Michigan and California accounted for 87.4% of the US trade deficit with Mexico of USD 58.4 billion in 2015. Both states have large- and medium-sized cars as their top two import products, which contain a significant share of US inputs. Thus, such trade deficits do not reflect the true nature of the US-Mexico trade relationship

Units:
Geographies:Mexico USA

Available in Spanish, English

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Slight change in ECB wording

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The ECB is more optimistic regarding the growth outlook. Inflation is revised significantly up this year to 1.7% YoY on increasing energy prices, but the ECB barely changes its broad view on core inflation. They still maintain a dovish bias, but they introduce a small tweak that could be the prelude of additional changes in the coming months

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | The trade deficit: Don’t fear the beast

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Public perception towards the trade deficit has shifted from being fact-based to sentiment-based. Economic pattern of the deficit strongly correlates with the structural shift in the U.S. economy. U.S. has a higher per capita deficit with Ireland and Germany than it does with China or Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - February 2017 Update

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While ISIS lost ground in Syria and Iraq, Al-Qaeda resumed its offensive operations. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and Ukraine stabilized after last month’s sharp conflict escalation. Geopolitical tensions in China could intensify as uncertainties regarding the US policy stance in the region remained and North Korea remains testing.

Available in English

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Turkey: Ongoing Economic Activity Recovery

By , , ,

Our monthly GDP indicator shows economic activity continued to recover gradually in January (of 96% information). According to the soft data survey indicators the economic activity is gaining momentum in February (33% of info and still to be checked by hard data). Improving external demand supports exporting sectors, while domestic demand follows only a gradual pick-up.

Available in English

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