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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: yield curve, retail sales and housing starts

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 14, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. yield curve

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

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Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

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Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure, inflation and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 7, 2017. Special topic: Economic effects of infrastructure policy

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Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

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Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - July 2017 Update

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North Korea increased security threats after its two long-range missile tests this month, increasing tensions with US. US approved new sanctions against Russia. As a response, Russia ordered to cut 755 US diplomatic staff and it plans to seize two US diplomatic properties. The Qatar diplomatic rift has been eased off.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

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Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

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Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. July 2017

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The FOMC voted unanimously to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, between 1% and 1.25%, signaling a “relatively soon” taper of maturing Treasuries and mortgage securities reinvestments, in their July meeting

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP, personal income, spending and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of July 31, 2017. Special topic: 2Q GDP

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United States Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Most people would agree that the current expansion cycle has been anemic. Since 2010, average real GDP growth has been 2.1%, significantly lower than 3.2% between 1992 and 2007. Over time, the cumulative difference between the two paths could be quite dramatic

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Latin America Economic Watch: Urbanization

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Urbanization took place earlier and at faster pace than in other emerging markets in Latam and is now at advanced economies’ levels. However, in spite of displaying high urbanization rates, Latin America show relatively low levels of income, capital, labor and productivity. The region should try to leverage on their high urbanization levels to boost digitization.

Geographies:Latin America

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The CBRT Strengthens its Credibility

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The Central Bank kept its interest rate corridor unchanged. Bearing in mind the stickiness in inflation and the ongoing high momentum of the economic activity, we expect the Bank not to find enough room for monetary easing until the end of the year when the headline will fall towards 9% thanks to favorable base effects on food and tax hikes of last year.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil Price shock maintaining positive growth. Nonetheless the recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation should continue its descending path in 2018 reaching the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its reference interest rate.

Available in Spanish, English

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