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La Rioja Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of La Rioja grew 1.5% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 2.9% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 5,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 10.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

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Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The economy of Madrid grew 3.7% in 2016, and will still grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 135,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.4%. Although pre-crisis GDP and GDP per head level have already been recovered, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

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Castile and Leon Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Castille and Leon grew 3.3% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% both in 2017 and 2018. This will add around 40,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 11%. Although pre-crisis GDP per cápita level has already been recovered, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

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Financial deleveraging: two steps forward; one step back

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After months of persistent regulatory tightening in domestic financial markets, China’s authorities unexpectedly fine-tuned their stance of monetary prudence by injecting liquidity into the banking sector. We interpret the authorities’ strategy as “two steps forward one step back”. After the market stabilizes and absorbs their messages, they are set to leap forward again.

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Canary Islands Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Canary Islands grew 3.5% in 2016, and will still grow to 3.5% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, creating around 60,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution may slow down. Although pre-crisis GDP level will be reached in 2018, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

By , , , ,

We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

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Spain | Regional watch. Second quarter 2017

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The revision of Spain's GDP increase in 2017 from 2.7% to 3.0% is supported by the evolution of exports and the greater activity in residential construction. The biggest upward revisions are in the Balearics, the Canaries and Madrid, which will continue to be the most dynamic regions. In 2018 GDP will increase by 2.7%, with a lower growth heterogeneity.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

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China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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Q1 GDP edged up to 6.9% YoY, we expect 2017 annual growth rate would not deviate much from the newly set official target of around 6.5%. Prudent monetary policy and tight regulations start to effect .RMB exchange rate and foreign reserves has stabilised. Downside risks: housing bubbles ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking.

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Andalusia Economic Outlook. First semester 2017

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The economy of Andalusia grew by 2.8% in 2016 and will accelerate to 3.1% in 2017 to stay at 2.7% in 2018. 200,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018, despite the unemployment rate will be 23.5%. Although pre-crisis GDP will be reached, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

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Extremadura Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Extremadura grew 2.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.3% in 2017 and 2.4% in 2018, creating some 13,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Although pre-crisis per capita income will be reached, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

By , , ,

We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

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Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Balearic Islands grew 3.2% in 2016, and will still grow 2.6% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, creating some 32,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Recovering pre-crisis per capita income, and creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

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Galicia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Galicia grew 3.0% in 2016, and will still grow 2.8% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years, although some external factors’ contribution shall slow down. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

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Valencian Community Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The economy of the Region of Valencia grew by 3.5% in 2016 and will continue to do so to 2.7% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018. 120,000 jobs will be created throughout the biennium in the region, and the precrisis level of GDP per capita will be recovered. The slowdown in domestic demand will only be partially offset by the recovery of the foreign sector.

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Aragon Economic Outlook. First semester 2017

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The economy of Aragón grew 3.3% in 2016, and will slow down to 2.9% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, creating some 20,000 new jobs in those two years. External factors slow down internal demand. Having almost recovered pre-crisis per capita income, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

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China Economic Outlook: First Quarter of 2017

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Economic activities continued to gain traction through Q4, enabling the authorities to meet their full-year target in 2016. The authorities recently fine-tuned their policy stance and put more emphasis on the stability of exchange rate. Downside risks: uncertainties from Trump’s policies ; currency depreciation; indebtedness of the corporate sector and shadow banking .

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