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China | ODI from the Middle Kingdom: What’s next after the big turnaround?

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China’s ODI saw a big turnaround as its strong growth momentum in 2016 came to a halt last year due to the authorities’ restrictive measures to curb capital outflows. We use a deal-based database by CGTI to detect where China’s ODI goes. Despite uncertain global political and economic environment, outbound investment by Chinese firms is likely to rise over the long term.

Available in English

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Spain Regional Watch. First quarter 2018

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The progressive deceleration of domestic demand and foreign tourism, together with an improvement in the export sector of goods and the effects of Catalan political tension, bias the growth towards the peninsular center. The unemployment rate will approach minimums at the end of 2019 in some Autonomous Communities.

Available in Spanish

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China Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The Q4 GDP growth came at 6.8% y/y, marginally surprised the market to the upside. China’s GDP grew by 6.9% in 2017, higher than the 2016 reading of 6.7%. That being said, China has successful staged a growth recovery last year, synchronized with the rest of the world, despite headwinds from prudential monetary policy, financial tightening as well as supply-side reforms.

Available in English

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China | A soft-landing in 2017

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December indicators reported today, together with Q4 GDP outturns, marginally exceeded market expectations. For 2017, China’s economy achieved a soft-landing synchronized with the rest of the world. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to rein in shadow banking activities are set to weigh on growth.

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China | The changing role of RRR in new monetary policy framework

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The recent two unconventional RRR cuts suggest the authorities set out to dethrone RRR from a monetary loosening or tightening tool. Instead, the PBoC now uses RRR cuts for liquidity management purpose. As monetary policy framework is migrating to a “corridor system”, the traditional quantitative tools adjustments have to give their way to new price tools.

Available in English

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China | From great miracle to great moderation: potential GDP estimation of China

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In the recently concluded 19th Party’s National Congress, the authorities have come up with a two-stage development plan. Using traditional Cobb-Douglas production function to gauge China’s potential GDP, we found China’s per capita GDP can increase to USD 21,000 (constant price of today) by 2035, in line with the authorities’ target of achieving “social modernization”.

Available in English

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Navarre Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Navarre grew by 2.9% in 2016. It will grow by 3.0% in 2017 and by 2.8% in 2018. This will add some 8,000 new jobs between 3Q17 and the end of 2018; unemployment shall drop to 8.8% by then. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered this year, creating more and better jobs remains a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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Spain Regional Watch. Fourth Quarter 2017

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In 2017, revisions are explained by exports that are lower than expected, or by the exhaustion of tourism. In 2018, positive inertia and the external environment are favorable, but several factors, such as the economic effects of terrorist attacks and the uncertainty related to the political environment in Catalonia, point to a slowdown.

Available in Spanish

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Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

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The economy of Madrid grew by 3.7% in 2016. It will also keep growing by 3.4% in 2017 and by 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 175,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.5%. Although GDP and GDP per capita have already recovered pre-crisis levels, creating more and better jobs remain important challenges better jobs remain important challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Asturias Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Asturias grew by 1.9% in 2016. It will grow by 2.4% in 2017 and by 2.3% in 2018. This will add around 12,300 new jobs in the period. Unemployment shall drop to 11.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be almost recovered, creating more and better jobs remains a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

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October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

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Andalusia Economic Outlook. Second semester 2017

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Andalusia’s economy will grow by 3.2% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018. The unemployment rate will remain high (23.2%) but 206,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018. Pre-crisis GDP will be reached but the labor market will be characterized by major challenges.

Available in Spanish

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China | China opens financial sector to more foreign ownership

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China has taken a major step toward the long-awaited opening of its financial market. On last Friday, unveiled at a government briefing, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said China will remove foreign ownership limits on banks while allowing overseas firms to take majority stakes in local securities ventures, fund managers and life insurance companies.

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Mexico Regional Sectorial Outlook. Second Half 2017

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We present the performance of the economies at state level, as well as their short-term perspective. The distinction is made between activities in order to understand their performance. Thus it was found that the vast majority of states have tertiary activities as the major source of economic momentum

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

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China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

Available in English

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