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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

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International Comparative of resolution frameworks

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Overview of different resolution frameworks: comparison between Europe, US, Latam and Japan.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

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Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2017

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Tourism in the Balearic and Canary Islands, investment in Andalusia and Murcia and exports in CC. AA. as Asturias, together with consumption that slows down less than expected, justify the upward revision of Spain's GDP to 3.3% in 2017. Balears, Canarias, Madrid, Murcia and Andalusia continue to lead growth

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

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China | Growth momentum is stronger than market expectations

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2017 Q2 GDP reached 6.9% y/y, flat with Q1 outturn and higher than the market concensus of 6.8% y/y, suggesting growth momentum is stronger than expected. The strong growth momentum is reflected in a batch of economic activity indicators released today. Both surging external demand and comparatively easing credit condition in June contributed to the good performance.

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U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. July 2017

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Regional recovery still on track in spite of pullback in expectations nationally

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Pais Vasco Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Basque Country grew 2.8% in 2016, will grow as much this year and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 22,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 9.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita has been recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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Murcia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Murcia region grew 3.1% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 41,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 16.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

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Catalonia Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The Catalan economy grew by 3.5% in 2016 and will remain dynamic in 2017 (+ 3.3%) and in 2018 (+ 2.8%). 230,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018 and the unemployment rate will drop to 9.3%. Although GDP per capita GDP will recover in 2017, creating more and better jobs remains the main challenge.

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La Rioja Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of La Rioja grew 1.5% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 2.9% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 5,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 10.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

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Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The economy of Madrid grew 3.7% in 2016, and will still grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 135,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.4%. Although pre-crisis GDP and GDP per head level have already been recovered, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

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China: Vulnerability sentiment improved notably in May

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved notably in May, led by Housing, SOE and Shadow Banking components, which offset a deterioration in Exchange Rate Vulnerability Index. The improvement in CVSI reflects underlying investor confidence that macro-financial headwinds facing China still remain manageable amid policy efforts to anchor financial stability.

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