Turkey latest publications

June 13, 2022

Turkey | Activity confirms an upward trend

Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 10.8% y/y in calendar adjusted terms in April. If no substantial negative shock occurs, given the current pace, it becomes more likely to achieve a full year growth rate close to 5%.

June 3, 2022

Turkey | CPI surprised on the downside but maintained an increasing trend

Consumer prices increased by 2.98% in May, much lower than market consensus (4%), which resulted in an annual figure of 73.5%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 80% in the coming months before slowing down to near 60% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.

May 31, 2022

Turkey | Growth slowing but keeping a solid pace

Turkish economy grew by 7.3% y/y in 1Q22 parallel to market expectation (7.2%). Given recent high momentum in activity and clear commitment of authorities to maintain loose policies, risks become tilted significantly to the upside on our prudent 2022 GDP growth forecast of 2.5%.

May 13, 2022

Turkey | Activity proves resilience so far in 2Q

Industrial Production surprised on the upside in March, growing 9.6% y/y in cal. adj. terms. The weaker performance observed in early April turns out to be a recovery in the recent weeks, which increases the upside risks on our current prudent 2022 GDP growth forecast of 2.5% assuming no substantial negative shocks.

May 5, 2022

Turkey | CPI touched 70% in April

Consumer inflation increased by 7.25% mom in April, leading annual inflation to reach 70%. High commodity prices, deteriorated inflation expectations and ongoing global supply-side problems are the upside risks on our expectation anticipating inflation to hover above 70% till November before fall to 50% at the end of 2022.

April 12, 2022

Turkey | Activity in q/q contraction as of April

Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside, increasing 13.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs our expectation of 10% and consensus of 7.5%). We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in 2022.

April 4, 2022

Turkey | CPI reached above 61% in March

Consumer prices increased by 5.5% in March, parallel to expectations and resulted in an annual inflation of 61.1% up from 54.4% the month before. Looking ahead, we expect consumer inflation to hover near 70% in 2Q and 3Q and decline to 50% at the end of the year, led by the favorable base effects.

March 3, 2022

Turkey | CPI above 54% and still climbing

Consumer prices increased by 4.8% in February and resulted in an annual inflation of 54.4%, (prev: 48.7%). Given the deepening cost push factors, uncertainty on commodity prices and inertia, CPI would surpass 60% in 2Q and 3Q, before falling down to a level at least above 40% on positive base effects in December.