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Industrial Production (IP) grew remarkably lower than expectations by 8.7% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (cons:15.2%) in July, whereas it contracted by 2.3% yoy in raw series. However given the strong momentum so far and still recovering global growth we maintain our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9%.
September 8, 2021
Global | The COVID-19 impact on Consumption in Real Time and High Definition: Sept 8th
Consumption growth rates showed a rebound in August in most countries, especially in services and tourism related sectors. In most countries card spending has gained more pull against cash.
Consumer prices increased by 1.12% monthly and 19.25% annually once again above expectations on the back of a higher than expected food inflation. We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 19% till November and end the year at close to 17%, with the help of positive base effects.
Turkish economy grew by 21.7% yearly in 2Q21, resulting in a 14.3% growth in the 1H21. The high carry-over impact is over 3Q onwards but the reopening, recovering tourism and exports revenues are still boosting the overall growth rate. We maintain our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9%, with risks still on the upside.
The Central Bank of Turkey maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. We expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle very gradually in 4Q (depending on the potential market volatility and upside risks on the inflation) and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.
Industrial Production (IP) grew by 24% yoy in both calendar adjusted and unadjusted terms in June, implying above 40% yoy growth in 2Q on the back of base effects. Given the strong activity so far in 1H and upward revisions on the global outlook we expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9%, with risks still on the upside.
August 6, 2021
Global | The COVID-19 impact on Consumption in Real Time and High Definition: August 6
Consumption growth rates remained high in July, although most of the base effect on year over year terms has been corrected in most countries.
Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in July, higher than expectations on the back of upside surprise in food prices resulting in an annual inflation of 18.95% (up from 17.53% the month before). We expect consumer inflation to stay close to 18.5-19% till November and end the year at 16% with the help of positive base effects.