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January 13, 2022

Turkey | Strong activity indicators in November

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.

January 3, 2022

Turkey | CPI surprised on the upside with 36.1%

Consumer prices increased by 13.58% in December significantly above expectations resulting in an annual inflation of 36.1% up from 21.3% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to hover above 40% throughout the year before declining to near 30% at the end of the year, helped by the favorable base impact in December.

December 13, 2021

Turkey | Still robust activity in 4Q

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 8.5% yoy in calendar adjusted term(5.4% yoy in raw series), in line with the market expectation in October. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% GDP growth forecast.

December 3, 2021

Turkey | November CPI realized as 21.3%

Consumer prices increased by 3.51% in in November, resulting in an annual inflation of 21.31% up from 19.89% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to surprise on the upside in the coming months with levels likely getting close to 30% towards the end of 1Q22.

November 30, 2021

Turkey | GDP growth reached 11.7% year-to-date

Turkish economy grew by 7.4% yoy in 3Q21, resulting in a growth rate of 11.7% in the first three quarters of the year. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% forecast. Though, recent currency shock and accompanying tighter financial conditions will likely weigh on the downside for 2022 growth.

November 19, 2021

Turkey | Big Data presentation at the Bank of Canada, Federal Reserve and Bank of Italy

BBVA Research present at the Conference on Non-traditional Data, Machine Learning and Natural Language Processing in Macroeconomics. We show evidence that Big Data from financial transactions is very useful for Nowcasting models of consumption and investment and reinforces the power of our traditional models.

November 12, 2021

Turkey | Industrial Production remained strong in 3Q

Industrial Production (IP) grew parallel to expectations by 8.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (8.8% yoy in raw series) in September. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.5% with risks on the upside considering the expansionary bias of the economy policies.

November 3, 2021

Turkey | Core inflation came down to 16.8%

Consumer prices increased by 2.39% in October surprisingly lower than expectations, resulting in an annual inflation of 19.89% up from 19.58% the month before. We expect consumer inflation to be 19.5% at the end of the year, with risks clearly on the upside.