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IP contracted by 2.2% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in March (-4.4% Consensus & -4.6% BBVA Research). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly contraction of 1.7% in March (96% info) and 1.6% in April (47% info). A prudent policy mix remains key to maintain the recovery trend alive and avoid a “W” pattern.
Consumer prices increased by 1.69% in April, even lower than the minimum estimate shared in the consensus, leading the annual figure to fall to 19.5% from 19.7% in March. Despite the recent currency depreciation, thanks to the base effects consumer inflation will likely fall rapidly after June, but reverse in the last 2 mon…
The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) published last Tuesday its latest inflation report. We believe rather than opening the door to a tighter monetary policy, the CBRT is moving to Inflation Forecast Targeting (IFT) framework since the Governor stressed the change of words as a “structural approach” rather than a “short term s…
The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained the monetary policy rate unchanged (one-week repo, 24%) in line with expectations. We expect annual inflation will stay close to 20% until June and near 15.5% at the end of the year. Hence, we think that the CBRT should wait until October when the recovery in inflation will become more obv…
Industrial Production (IP) contracted by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in February (-6.2% Consensus& -6.7% BBVA Research). IP (sca) recovered by 0.7% in the first 2 months of 2019 compared to 4Q18. A prudent economic policy stance is key to maintain the recovery in the coming quarters as the new round of financial vol…
Consumer prices increased by 1.03% in March in line with expectations (1%, Consensus & BBVA Research), resulting in a steady annual inflation at 19.7%. Assuming no additional shock, we still expect consumer inflation to stay between 19-20% till June, when favorable base effects will start to weigh and end the year at 14.5%.
Turkish Industrial Production (IP) increased by 1% mom in seasonal and calendar adjustment terms in January after five months in a row of monthly negative contractions. Industrial Production contracted by 7.3% in year growth rates in line with our expectations but lower than consensus (-8% Consensus vs. -7.1% BBVA Research…
Turkish Economy contracted by 3.0% yoy in 4Q18, slightly worse than expectations (-2.5% median vs. -2.2% BBVA Research). The economy technically entered into a recession as the QoQ contraction became deeper with -2.4% after -1.6% in 3Q18. We maintain GDP growth forecast at 1% for 2019 as recent impulses and base effects in …