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September 17, 2020

Global | Investment in Real Time and High Definition

The high uncertainty triggered by the Covid-19 crisis has stressed the need to monitor the evolution of the economy in “real time”. We developed a set of Big Data indicators to track Investment in Real Time and High Definition, extending the analysis to assess the business cycle and complementing our tracker of consumption.

September 3, 2020

Turkey | Headline CPI stays at 11.77% in August

Consumer prices increased by 0.86% mom in August, leading the annual inflation to stay almost stable at 11.77%. Annual core inflation rose to 11.03% from 10.25%, reflecting gradual exchange rate pass-thru and the impact of the demand pull factors. We expect the headline inflation to be 11% at the end of 2020.

August 31, 2020

Turkey | GDP slumped but beat market expectations

Turkish economy contracted by -9.9% in yearly terms in 2Q20. The growth rates in services and industry, sensitive to the Covid-19 shock, were the key factors behind. We revise our 2020 GDP growth forecast to -1% from the previous 0%, keeping the same forecast range from -3% to +1%.

August 14, 2020

Turkey | Strong activity confirms our Big Data signals

Industrial Production (cal. adj.) grew +0.1% yoy in June, impliying a faster recovery after the sharp drop of 25% during April-May. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly GDP growth rate of near -5.5% for 2Q, and +0.4% as of July. We maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0% with some risks on the downside

August 4, 2020

Turkey | Consumer inflation decelerates to 11.76%

Consumer prices increased by 0.58% in July, this time surprising on the downside (1% BBVA Research vs. 0.8% Consensus). Led by the positive base effects, annual inflation decelerated to 11.76% from 12.62% in June. We expect consumer inflation to stay at two-digits and to be realized at 10% at the end of the year

July 13, 2020

Turkey | Fast recovery in May industrial production

Industrial Production (IP) in May contracted by 20% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, which signals a gradual recovery after the sharp drop of 31% in April. The month-on-month recovery at 17% also proved to be the strongest monthly increase historically. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020.

July 3, 2020

Turkey | June CPI reinforces a worsening outlook

Consumer prices increased by 1.13% in June, remaining significantly above both the consensus and our expectation (0.6% vs. 0.45%). Thus, also led by the negative base effects, annual inflation accelerated to 12.62% from 11.39% in May.

June 12, 2020

Turkey | Contraction in production deepens in April

Industrial Production (IP) in April contracted by 31.4% yoy as the restrictions and the impact of the COVID on the activity intensified during the month. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020 and wait for June’s indicators to confirm the pace of recovery. Important down side risks remain.