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February 13, 2020

Turkey | December IP surprised on the upside

Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, surprising expectations on the upside in December (7% BBVA Research vs. 6.6% market median). Thus, IP growth accelerated to 5.8% yoy in 4Q19 after its yearly contraction of 0.5% in 3Q19. 2019 GDP growth will likely be materialized at above 0.5% yoy.

February 6, 2020

Turkey Economic Outlook. First quarter 2020

Recent policy impulses could support the acceleration in the economic activity further. We upgrade our GDP growth to 0.8% and 4% for 2019 & 2020 respectively with a higher support from Domestic Demand.

February 3, 2020

Turkey | CPI started the year at 12.15%

Consumer prices increased by 1.35% (1.0% market vs. 1.5% BBVA Research) in January, leading the annual figure to rise to 12.15% up from 11.84% in December. We expect consumer inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages.

January 14, 2020

Turkey | IP confirms the expected recovery in 4Q19

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, parallel to the market expectation of 5.5% in November. Thus, IP grew by 4.5% yoy in October-November period. We expect GDP growth in 4Q19 at around 5%, implying 0.8% growth in 2019. Our baseline forecast for 2020 GDP growth remains at 4%.

January 3, 2020

Turkey | Inflation ended 2019 at 11.8%

Consumer prices increased by 0.74% in December, beating the consensus estimate of 0.4%; led the annual CPI to end 2019 at 11.84%. In absence of shocks, Consumer inflation could stay between 11-12% in 1Q20 before experiencing levels close to 10.5% in 2Q20. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020.

December 12, 2019

Turkey | The CBRT delivered 200 bps rate cut

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) decreased the policy rate by 200 bps to 12% from 14%, slightly higher than market expectation of 150 bps. Global Central Banks Dovishness remain supportive but we think that complacency should be ruled out and the CBRT should be ready to act in any direction if the situation change.

December 4, 2019

Geo-World: Conflict & Protest November

The protests in Iraq, Lebanon and Iran against government policies triggered questions about the regional stability. Hong Kong pro-democracy candidates gained huge victory in local elections. Social unrest in Latin America intensified in some countries and they should be closely monitored.

December 3, 2019

Turkey | Inflation surprised on the downside

Consumer prices increased by 0.38% mom in November, way lower than market consensus and ours (0.75%, Bloomberg vs 0.77%, BBVA). Annual inflation increased to 10.56% from 8.55% in October due to the unfavorable base effect. We expect that annual inflation will increase close to 11.8% at the end of 2019 with downside risk.