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October 7, 2022

Türkiye | Advances on GDP Nowcasting: Data, Frequency & Methodology

We aim to improve our existing Monthly GDP Nowcasting Model in order to draw a leading and more accurate picture of the economic activity in real time in Türkiye. In addition, we also generate a reliable in-house «Weekly GDP Tracker» to compute real-time responses to policy impulses in a period of rapidly changing shocks.

October 3, 2022

Türkiye | Uncertainty on inflation figures

Consumer prices rose by 3.08% in September, below both market consensus (3.15%) and our expectation (3.7%), which led to an annual inflation of 83.5%. We expect consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year as base effects would start a disinflation path.

September 5, 2022

Türkiye | August CPI surprised to the downside

Consumer prices rose by 1.46% in August, once again below both market consensus and our expectation (2%), which led to an annual inflation of 80.2%. We forecast consumer inflation to be 70% at the end of the year and 33% at the end of 2023, with risks remaining on the upside.

September 1, 2022

Türkiye | Food Security Outlook

Türkiye’s food security outlook has shown comparatively lower progress with risk factors pointing to multifaceted issues involving food inflation, agricultural imports, natural resources and policy choices. Our analysis assesses all of these risk factors, drawing policy suggestions for improving food security of Türkiye.

August 31, 2022

Türkiye | GDP grew by 7.5% in 1H22

Turkish economy grew by 7.6% y/y in 2Q22, resulted in 7.5% y/y GDP growth in the first half of 2022. We keep our 2022 GDP growth forecast of 5%, on the grounds of the recent high realization in the first half and authorities’ bias to maintain loose policies.

August 16, 2022

Türkiye | Activity decelerates fast in early 3Q

Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 8.5% y/y in cal. adj. terms in June. Monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a quarterly GDP contraction of near 1% as of early August, while we maintain our 2022 GDP growth forecast at 5%.

August 3, 2022

Türkiye | July CPI lower than expected

Consumer prices rose by 2.37% in July, once again below market consensus (2.6%) and our expectation (4%), which led to an annual inflation of 79.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months before slowing down to near 70% given positive base effects in the last two months of the year.

July 4, 2022

Turkey | Annual CPI got closer to 80%

Consumer prices increased by 4.95% in June, slightly lower than market consensus (5.7%) and our expectation (5.5%), which resulted in an annual figure of 78.6%. We expect consumer inflation to accelerate above 90% in the coming months led by loose economic policies and significantly deteriorating inflation expectations.