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June 12, 2020

Turkey | Contraction in production deepens in April

Industrial Production (IP) in April contracted by 31.4% yoy as the restrictions and the impact of the COVID on the activity intensified during the month. We maintain our GDP growth estimate at 0% for 2020 and wait for June’s indicators to confirm the pace of recovery. Important down side risks remain.

June 3, 2020

Turkey | May CPI confirms upside risks on inflation

Consumer prices increased by 1.36% in May. Therefore, annual inflation accelerated to 11.39% from 10.94% in April. Depending on the food inflation and the level of exchange rate, headline inflation could stay close to 12% in June before converging to 9% towards the end of 3Q and ending the year at near 8.5%.

May 29, 2020

Turkey | 1Q GDP already shows the COVID impact

Turkish Economy grew by 4.5% yoy in 1Q20, lower than expectations (5.5% Our vs. 4.9% Bloomberg). Seasonally and cal. adj. quarterly growth also decelerated to 0.6% from the previous 1.9% in 4Q19. We still maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0% for 2020, assuming a partial gradual recovery pattern in the rest of the year.

May 15, 2020

Turkey | A sharp adjustment in March Production

Industrial Production (IP) in March contracted by 2% yoy in cal. adj terms as the restrictions to fight the COVID started to hit the economy. Given the assumption of a partial gradual recovery in the second half of the year, we maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0%.

May 4, 2020

Turkey | Annual CPI realized at 10.9% in April

Consumer prices increased by 0.85% in April, higher than both the consensus and our expectation (0.6%). Though, annual inflation continued to decelerate to 10.94% from 11.86% in March on top of favorable base effects led by energy prices. We expect consumer inflation to be 7.5% at the end of 2020.

April 3, 2020

Turkey | Annual CPI comes down to 11.9% in March

Consumer prices increased by 0.57% in March, higher than both the consensus 0.5% and BBVA Research 0.23%. Annual inflation declined to 11.86% from 12.37% in February, led by favorable base effects. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to experience one digit levels as early as May and end the year at near 7.5%.

March 13, 2020

Turkey | Strong industrial production…before CVirus

Industrial Production (IP) in January grew by 7.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, lower than both the consensus (8.5%). We maintain our GDP forecast at 4%, with obvious risks on the downside depending on both the magnitude and the duration of the Cvirus shock in the economy and particularly in financial markets.

March 3, 2020

Turkey | February CPI surprised on the downside

Consumer prices increased by 0.35% in February, lower than expectations (consensus, 0.69% vs ours, 0.85%). Annual figure still rose to 12.37% on base effects. We expect inflation to be 8.5% at the end of 2020 under the assumptions of a neutral real exchange rate and a food inflation at historically seasonal averages