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Lower net investment in real estate and high depreciation rates of intangibles account for most of the slowdown in net business investment over the last 30 years.
Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks to downside growing. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 60% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Inflation outlook in question with core PCE persistently below target. Fed preparing markets for rate cuts in 3Q19.
OPEC+ will most likely extend the output deal through the rest of the year. Weaker economic growth to lead to slower demand for oil. Escalation of tensions between U.S. and Iran, as well as trade negotiations between China and the U.S. are the main sources of uncertainty.