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In July, the current economic expansion will reach 121 months, becoming the longest in modern history. Barring any shocks, inflation-adjusted GDP will average more than $21T in 2019 and by the end of the year real GDP per capita will surpass $58K.
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The decision by the United States to increase the trade tariffs for China once again has brought the trade truce to a halt and fired up China’s tit-for-tat policy.
Weekly update with most relevant news on financial regulation:
Highlights: BCBS issues Basel III implementation progress report. EU Commission publishes recommendations for the EU’s next strategic agenda of 2019-2024 and a list of priorities for the next BRRD review under the new EU Commission. EMMI applies for authorization from FSMA on hybrid euribor methodology.
Highlights: NGFS issues first comprehensive report on climate change. EU Parliament approves legislative package for financial entities. BoE amends financial services legislation in the context of Brexit. PRA and FCA publish business plans for 2019/20. US Agencies consult on resolution planning and supplementing leverage ra…
New vehicle sales are projected to decelerate from 2018 levels. Robust economic growth has been the main driver of auto sales, but affordability is deteriorating while the impact of previous tax cuts is diluting. Going forward, higher interest rates and a higher supply of “off-leasing” vehicles will exert downward pressures…
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GDP growth 2.5% in 2019, and 2.0% in 2020. Model based recession probability above 50%. Probability of Fed rate hike in 2019 diminished; quantitative tightening end in September. Labor market stabilizes after whipsawing. Core inflation stable, headline below 2.0% in 2019. Short-lived technical yield curve inversion, but sig…
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Highlights: BCBS issues guidelines for the mapping process under SA. EU Council extends Art.50 process. Council of the EU adopts NPL reform. ECB presents 2018 SREP results. ESAs publish annual report. PRA consults on changes to the Branch Return Form. FRB consults on changes to the regulatory framework for foreign banks.