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img_publication Outlook

Argentina Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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The economy continued to grow in 1Q17 in line with our forecast of 2.8% Y/Y. Inflation is moving away from the BCRA target and will reach 19.5% (INDEC) Y/Y in December, driven by tariffs and core inflation that does not yield. The restrictive monetary and accommodative fiscal policy mix strengthens the peso, but we expect a greater pace of depreciation in 2H17

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1.Summary

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The data from the 2016 national accounts confirm that the economy had begun to grow rather tepidly in Q3 and increased the growth rate to 0.5% Q/Q in the last quarter of the year



2.Global environment: global growth consolidates but there are still risks

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GDP growth continued to increase worldwide, to rates of around 1% per quarter, exceeding the 0.8% average since 2011. This acceleration has been driven by a generalised improvement in confidence levels, coupled with advances in world trade, stimulated above all by monetary and fiscal stimulus measures in China















9.International outlook improves but domestic risks continue to lean towards the downside

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As regards the external environment, two factors stand out, one related to the resolution of the imbalances in China and the other linked to US economic policies and the Federal Reserve’s process of withdrawal of monetary stimulus measures




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