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Financial Regulation Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Future trends in European banking regulation. Global regulatory framework. CRD V: state of play. Banking Union: barriers and other issues. European initiatives on NPLs. Resolution: lessons learned. CCPs in the post-Brexit era. Fintech keeps climbing up the political agenda.

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1.Future trends in European banking regulation

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Reflections on possible scenarios in the EU regulation roadmap. There are wide-ranging questions in Europe over the course and pace that regulators will choose in the next 5-10 years, and banks must weigh up potential trends to anticipate future changes. This analysis seeks to stimulate discussion on potential trends.



2.Global regulatory framework

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Retrenchment or recalibration? Since the beginning of the financial crisis, the resilience of the financial system has improved. However, there have been concerns over the impact of regulation on economic growth and market liquidity. It seems a good time to evaluate what has been achieved and to make the necessary adjustments.



3.CRD V: state of play

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Resuming negotiations after the summer break. Last November, the European Commission presented a package to amend banks’ prudential and resolution frameworks. Negotiations are underway but might take longer than expected. Efforts have been made to approve the issues that need fast-tracking (transitional arrangements for IFRS 9, large exposures and creditor hierarchy.



4.Banking Union: barriers and other issues

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Halfway there. The Banking Union is one of the tools most relevant to achieving financial integration in the Eurozone and to breaking the doom-loop between sovereigns and banks. Given its importance we need to improve it, as there are barriers to overcome. Furthermore, the project is only half-completed, since some key elements are still missing.



5.European initiatives on NPLs

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There are several ongoing European initiatives, like the Council conclusions on an action plan to tackle NPLs, that identifies future work streams. Policy options are focused on three areas: enhanced supervision, reform of insolvency frameworks and, development of secondary markets. A single regulatory framework would be crucial to eliminate regulatory uncertainty.



6.Resolution: lessons learned

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The framework needs improvements. The handling of the recent cases shows that, despite having common legal (BRRD) and institutional (Banking Union) frameworks at EU level, bank failures are still not treated in a homogeneous way across Europe. Furthermore, the resolution framework requires improvements as its practical implementation has given rise to new challenges.



7.CCPs in the post-Brexit era

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The future of market infrastructures after Brexit. CCPs have become more important since the financial crisis. In the EU, a substantial volume of trades are cleared in the UK. Brexit will have an impact to the status-quo. In this regard, the Commission presented a proposal to grant ESMA and Central Banks additional powers on the supervision and authorization of CCPs.



8.Fintech keeps climbing up the political agenda

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Financial regulators rekindle the debate. During 2017 financial regulators and supervisors at international and EU level have released a number of public consultations, discussion papers and reports analysing the impact of financial technology (fintech) on the financial sector, as well as the implications for regulatory and supervisory frameworks.




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