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img_publication Outlook

Turkey Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Turkish economy’s “V” shaped recovery is well alive and the pace of the recovery gained momentum with 5% GDP growth in 1Q. Our monthly GDP indicator suggests a similar growth in 2Q supported by fiscal and macroprudential stimuli provided by CGF. Inflation will remain elevated until the end of the year.

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1.Editorial

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The global economic activity, continued to perform positively during recent quarters. All this has calmed the financial markets down so far, reducing their overall volatility and also supporting the Turkish financial assets. Our monthly GDP indicator is also signaling a similar growth trend in 2Q with a growth level close to 5%.



2.Global outlook

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The world economy has been picking up in recent quarters with growth rates of 1% QoQ; although it has tended to stabilise. Global confidence is clearly positive, especially in the advanced economies, showing robust figures. World trade growth has recovered swiftly from the very low levels of the middle of last year and only seems to have slowed somewhat in April and May.



3.Turkey Economic Outlook

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Rapid credit growth thanks to the Government’s CGF and intensified fiscal stimulus were the main factors behind the still high momentum in 2Q. Food inflation and cost shocks, which are still alive and pushing up prices, stemming from the exchange rate pass-through continued being the prominent factors that keep inflation at high levels.



4.Balance of Risks

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The overall balance of risks is neutral. On the domestic front, the end of uncertainties after the April referendum should now lead the Government to focus on economic policies and reforms at least in the short term as the new election cycle is not so far away. New election cycle and complex geopolitical region are still key issues to be monitored.




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