Turkey | Strong activity confirms our Big Data signals

Industrial Production (cal. adj.) grew +0.1% yoy in June, impliying a faster recovery after the sharp drop of 25% during April-May. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a yearly GDP growth rate of near -5.5% for 2Q, and +0.4% as of July. We maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0% with some risks on the downside

Key points

• Key points:
• The month-on-month rise in IP (sa & cal adj) remained strong at 17.6%, supported by all main sub-sectors.
• Retail sales also accelerated by increasing 16.5% mom, which corresponds to a yearly contraction of only -0.8% after the sizable decline of -19% on average in the previous two months.
• The necessary tightening in financial conditions and monetary policy to moderate excess credit and limit exchange rate volatility should lead to some moderation in August.
• We maintain our 2020 GDP growth forecast at 0% with some but limited downside risks.

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