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Published on Wednesday, August 21, 2019 | Updated on Tuesday, September 3, 2019

U.S. Economic Outlook. August 2019

Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks tilted to downside. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 75% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Downside risks to inflation moderating.

Key points

  • Key points:
  • Fed debating if further rate cuts are needed
  • Global weakness and policy uncertainty push term premium to record lows
  • Weaker demand pressuring oil prices, but geopolitical risks remain

Geographies

  • Geography Tags
  • USA

Topics

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