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The Fed will likely convey that it continues to look for “more good data” before feeling enough confidence to begin cutting rates as the strength of economic activity has extended and shelter inflation has surprised to the upside.

Adaptation to accelerated climate change is imperative, which can be an opportunity for sustainable financing from the private sector if the conditions are in place. It remains to be seen.

GDP grew 1.4% y/y in January. He highlighted the growth of sectors that have remained in negative territory for a long time, such as the construction sector and non-primary manufacturing. On the contrary, the agricultural sector continues to be…

While the labor market is still on track to a better supply-demand balance and wage costs cool down, two consecutive 0.4% MoM core inflation readings will likely continue to push the Fed to convey it needs “more good data” to gain greater confi…

In January 2024, the balance of traditional bank deposits (sight + term) registered a real annual growth rate of 4.3%, while the balance of the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the non-financial private sector grew 4.9% a…

Economic activity will rebound this year as the negative shocks that affected it in 2023 revert and the environment for private sector spending improves. Output is expected to grow 2,7%, higher than our three-months-ago forecast (2,0%), as weather anomalies related to the coastal El Niño phenomenon have been less intense.

Javier Milei's government took office aiming to have a less regulated and more market friendly economy with the private sector as the main driver of economic growth. The core of his macroeconomic policy is to achieve fiscal equilibrium and eliminate monetary issuance to cover public spending as of 2024.

The Banking System maintains capital and liquidity levels much higher than regulatory minima. The dynamism of bank financing in 2023 was observed in all sectors (public and private), through various instruments (credit and securities) and was a…

GDP fell 0.7% y/y in December and 0.6% for the year as a whole. It was a year of negative shocks (political and social upheaval, weather anomalies) and in which the environment for private sector spending was challenging (high inflation and int…

Doors seem to have closed to the possibility of a rate cut in March. Fed’s need for “more good data” to achieve “greater confidence” of the ongoing disinflation process has been recently supported by recent strong job creation data and signals …

A key change in the forward guidance signals that Banxico is getting ready to start a rate cut cycle as “in the next monetary policy meetings, it will assess, depending on available information, the possibility of adjusting the reference rate.”

Banxico is set to hold the policy rate at 11.25% at this meeting amid core services inflation stickiness, but will likely continue to pave the way to cut it as soon as in the following meeting in March.