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Crystal clear

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Amid the growing uncertainty of the global economic scenario, stemming from the potential escalation of tariff increases initiated by the US, the main central banks have launched a crystal-clear message this week: monetary policies are entering a new phase.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 15 June 2018

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EBA issues consultation and opinion regarding SCA and CSC under PSD2. SRB receives final Valuation 3 report on resolution of Banco Popular. BdE adopts a series of guidelines issued by EBA. BoE publishes several policy statements on resolution and MREL. Finally, FRB publishes final rule on limits to concentration risks.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB delivers on QE exit and gives strong guidance on rates

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The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 8 June 2018

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FSB consults on TLAC implementation and publishes review of bank resolution planning. ECB signs MoU with SRB to share information. ESMA publishes risk dashboard. BdE keeps its countercyclical capital buffer unchanged. BoE receives assessment on resolution arrangements. US Agencies issue joint consultation on Volcker Rule.

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SBBS: Low risk without mutualisation?

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Last week the European Commission presented a proposal for developing a new class of low-risk assets denominated in euros. SBBS, or sovereign bond-backed securities, are securitisations backed by a set of sovereign bonds of euro zone countries. Each SBBS would thus incorporate an exposure to a small part of sovereign bonds of each euro zone Member State.

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Italy and the euro

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The trigger leading to the sharp market reaction was on the one hand the manifesto of the coalition between the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League, which included disproportionate fiscal expansion. All Italian parties had made extravagant fiscal promises, but had not envisaged sticking to them when forming a government.

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 1 June 2018

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EBA and ESMA issue a joint communication on financial instruments used for resolution held by retail investors. EBA issues ITS on supervisory disclosure. ESMA issues guide regarding anti-procyclicality margin measures for CCPs. CNMV adopts guidelines to assess suitability of management body members. Finally, FRB issues proposal to amend the Volcker Rule.

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Europe | Funding before and in resolution

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Funding before and in resolution. A proposal for a funding in resolution mechanism

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Data Protection: new rights and more responsibilities

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The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which comes into force today, aims to harmonise and reinforce the legal framework of personal data protection in Europe. It is an update of the previous Directive of 1995, which had become clearly obsolete as a result of the rapid development of the new technologies.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update 25 May 2018

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Council agrees general position on the banking package. EC issues a proposal for regulation on SBBS and concrete actions on sustainable finance. EBA consults on technical standards and guidelines to quantify downturns for LGD, and updates OSIIs list. Spanish Economy Ministry consults on sandbox proposal. U.S. Congress passes a financial regulation relief Bill.

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Eurozone | More moderate growth with higher uncertainty

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Growth slowed in 1Q18 to 0.4% QoQ, more than expected. Hard data picked up somewhat in March, but sentiment data continues to be hesitant up to May. Our BBVA-MICA model projects growth to remain around 0.4% in 2Q18, and imply a downward bias on our 2.3% annual GDP growth projection.

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The power of the ECB’s words and tone

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The way the European Central Bank modulates its tone with each announcement has recently become an important tool for keeping track of monetary policy. This has come about since central banks have added specific commitments and credible and transparent communication to their toolbox.

Geographies:Europe

Available in Spanish, English