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Pensions and private savings

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In the last few weeks, the debate on private savings as an instrument to supplement public pensions has again intensified. Although this has always been a topic for discussion and analysis, the recent cause was the royal decree that will enable the amount saved in pension plans to be redeemed after 10 years.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 16 February 2018

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Highlights: IOSCO issued a report on the protection of investors of OTC leveraged products. ESRB issued recommendations to address systemic risk for investments funds. ESAs issued a warning regarding virtual currencies. The CNMV presented its action plan for 2018. The PRA issued a consultation regarding algorithmic trading.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 9 February 2018

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Highlights: ESMA issued guidelines to manage conflict of interest in CCPs, a final ITS on the application of MAR, several work programmes and updated a set of Q&As. EBA updated a guide on risk indicators. BdE and CNMV issued a joint statement on cryptocurrencies and ICOs. Finally, the EC issued a call for feedback regarding public reporting obligations.

Available in Spanish, English

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Synthetic inflation indicator in the Eurozone, closing the gap in a sustained manner

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Unconventional measures taken by the ECB and the combination of several events on multiple fronts are contributing, in a very gradual way, to the pushing up of inflation, although it is a long way from getting back to the ECB’s target. Once the ECB is more confident on achieving the sustained adjustment on the path of inflation, it will adjust its forward guidance.

Available in Spanish, English

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All at sea with the euro?

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In a kind of déjà vu, the European Central Bank (ECB) is once again showing how ill at ease it is with exchange rate volatility. It did so when the euro appreciated to 1.20 against the dollar, and this was a factor in the downward revision of its inflation forecast and the subsequent announcement of the extension of its asset purchase programme for another nine months.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 2 February 2018

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Highlights: SRB published non-confidential documents on the resolution of Banco Popular. ESRB published a report on SBBS. EBA launched the 2018 stress test in cooperation with ECB. EC published sustainable finance report. EU Council adopted the Brexit negotiation directives for the transition period. Finally, ESMA published the results for CCPs stress test.

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal: expansion, with issues to resolve

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The prospects for the Portuguese economy are positive, although the country still has significant imbalances that could slow the pace of recovery if the reforming zeal shown in the past few years is not maintained.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB faces a major challenge in 2018

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Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, and in response to the subsequent European debt crisis, the European Central Bank (ECB) has adopted various measures to stabilise the economy and to aim at achieving its ultimate goal: price stability.

Available in Spanish, English

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What is being debated as regards the reform of the euro?

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Whether to share risks or reduce them. That is the leitmotiv behind the current battle over the reform of the euro, which is supposed to lead to a new initiative by June.

Available in Spanish, English

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Financial Regulation: Weekly Update. 26 January 2018

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Highlights: IOSCO issued a statement regarding ICOs. ESMA updated transparency calculation under MiFID II/MiFIR. The EC seeks comments on SBBs roadmap, published RTS regarding CVA, and issued draft amendments to LCR delegated regulation. EBA published stress test launch date. Finally, CNMV issued consultation on corporate governance and remuneration reports.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch | The ECB strikes a dovish tone

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The ECB left its forward guidance communication unchanged. Renewed concerns over exchange rate volatility. “Very few chances” of a rate hike this year.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates steady growth in 4Q17 (0.6/0.7% QoQ). We revised up our growth forecast to 2.2% in 2018 given strengthened domestic factors and better global outlook. Our inflation forecast increased to 1.5% due to higher oil prices but keeping a view of gradual pick-up in core prices. We still expect a gradual normalization of monetary policy during 2018-19.

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal consolidates its economic recovery

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According to the information available, 4Q17 Portuguese GDP grew at 0.4% QoQ, SWDA, a similar rate to that seen in 3Q17. This would be consistent with the latest BBVA Research scenario for Portugal (+2.6% in 2017 and +2.3% in 2018).

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English