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Mexico Real Estate Outlook. First half 2018

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The trend in construction continues to show lower growth than that of the economy in general. In the third quarter, the fall of the accumulated GDP of the sector is -1.2% as an annual rate, largely due to civil works, which have fallen by 11%. Building will close with a growth of 0.5%. Civil works will not rebound due to the adjustments in public expenditure.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Higher oil prices in 2017 helped to improve the fiscal and external balances

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Although we predict that crude oil prices will continue to recover this year and beyond, a substantial improvement in these balances will only be achievable in the medium term if the following factors remain: i) strong performance of tax revenues; ii) strict discipline over public spending; and iii) the impulse derived from the manufacturing export sector.

Available in Spanish, English

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Banxico: playing it safe

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Banxico raised its policy rate by another 25bp to 7.5%, as widely anticipated, and in line with our and consensus call, given recent communication hawkishness and hints from Banxico's governor ahead of the decision. The policy rate is now at a nine year high.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Fall in inflation the start of a downwards trend

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As widely expected, annual inflation declines sharply in January.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Banxico will deliver the signaled 25bp hike

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The inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We expect wording changes to signal a possible pause in coming meetings.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Remittances grew 6.6% in 2017,reaching a new historical peak at US$28.771 billion

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The annualised growth of March (15%), July (10.8%), October (19%) and December (11.2%) of 2017 contributed greatly to reaching this record figure, mitigating the falls that occurred in some months of the year.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | INFONAVIT: its role in the mortgage market should be reviewed

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For many years, INFONAVIT had a clear raison d'être: for decades, Mexico had no long-term mortgage options in the private sector. This was principally due to the fact that the country did not have a yield curve with any depth.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Inflation: January CPI forecast

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Following the positive surprise in 1H January, our forecast for the January headline inflation print is 0.40% MoM, translating into a 5.40% YoY number (1.4pp lower than in December).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English