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Budgetary stability and reforms: lessons from the crisis and challenges pending

By ,

All the signs are that in the next few days Congress will give its definitive approval to the General State Budget for 2017 following intense debate. The pace and make-up of fiscal consolidation and the fiscal policy options have again been subjected to multiple amendments.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure spending, a need rather than a stimulus

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Discussion on infrastructure spending: the economic impact, current state of infrastructure, and funding options

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The beginning of 2017 shows a good performance of fiscal stance

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Spain reached the stability target in 2016, due to expenditure containment and fiscal measures adopted in the last quarter. In 2017, in a favourable economic environment, the recent performance of public accounts suggests that the deficit adjustment continues. 2017 and 2018 stability objectives are achievable, but will require a tight control of public expenditure.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

By , , , ,

We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

By , , ,

Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

Available in English

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Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

Document Number 17/11

By ,

We analyse the fiscal policy lessons from the recent recession in the Spanish economy and the options for the future. Our results indicate that budget balance and public debt trends showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011, with few alternatives available other than reducing the fiscal deficit.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

By , , ,

We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

Available in English

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Spain: towards a neutral fiscal policy in 2017 and 2018

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Recent performance of public accounts and the new fiscal measures adopted at the end of the year, anticipates the compliance with the stability target of 2016. The highest deficit adjustment of 2016 was recorded in autonomous communities. The improvement in activity would have been sufficient to bring the public imbalance into line with the targets set for 2017 and 2018.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Brazil | A more negative outlook

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Last week's downgrade to high-yield by S&P was one of the symptoms of the ongoing economic deterioration, which will likely continue ahead. After reviewing our prospects for Brazil, we now expect GDP to drop 2.5% in 2015 and 0.5% in 2016. A weaker exchange rate and a lighter fiscal adjustment should maintain inflation under pressure and prevent SELIC cuts until 2Q16.

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Fiscal accounts deteriorated sharply in 2014

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The combination of weak revenues and robust expenditure generated a significant worsening of fiscal accounts last year: the primary result was negative for the first time ever (-0.6% of GDP), the total deficit reached more than 6.0% of GDP and the gross public debt increased more than 6 p.p. to 63.4% of GDP. The 2014 fiscal deterioration makes the ongoing adjustment in public accounts more indispensable and also more painful in terms of its short-term impact on economic activity. In spite of the worst-than-expected starting point, we expect the recently announced fiscal goals (1.2% of GDP primary surplus in 2015 and 2.0% in 2016 and 2017) to be fulfilled, preventing a further deterioration of public accounts ahead.

Geographies:Brazil

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