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Rainy days in Europe

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The debate on how to advance towards greater integration in Europe is intensifying with the approach of June, the self-imposed deadline for Europe’s leaders to come up with specific new reforms for the euro zone. The International Monetary Fund has recently joined the fray with a proposal for a stabilisation fund to cushion fluctuations in the economic cycle.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Whites of Inflation’s Eyes in Powell’s Crosshairs

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Factors that pre-date the crisis such as globalization, innovation, demographics and productivity explain bulk of persistent undershooting of the inflation target. Although there is a more tenuous relationship between labor market slack and wages, some further tightening could help lift prices above the 2% target in the medium-run.

Available in Spanish, English

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Reaching the 2019 deficit target will require additional fiscal adjustments

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The recovery of activity and a strong control of spending anticipate the compliance with the stability target of 2017. With a broadly neutral fiscal stance for 2018 and 2019, Spain will exit the excessive deficit protocol, but it could fail to achieve its targets.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Economic growth will allow to reduce public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2018

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The recovery of activity and a strong control of spending are driving fiscal adjustment. In this context, the probability of fulfilling the 2017 objective is high. Spain will exit the excessive deficit protocol in 2018. However, imbalances - that require that the fiscal discipline continues - persist.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Economic recovery facilitates compliance with stability targets

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The deficit adjustment continues in April 2017, led by Central government. In this scenario, the stability objectives are achievable thanks to the economic recovery. Given the persistence of imbalances, such as high public debt levels, there is still much work to be done for the control of the public accounts.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Fiscal Policy in Europe: Lessons from the Crisis and Options for the Future

By ,

We analyse fiscal policy in the Eurozone during the last crisis in order to obtain the main lessons for the current debate on how to strength the European Monetary Union. We show that the interaction between uncertainties on national policies of countries with macroeconomic imbalances and an incomplete monetary union.

Available in English

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Budgetary stability and reforms: lessons from the crisis and challenges pending

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All the signs are that in the next few days Congress will give its definitive approval to the General State Budget for 2017 following intense debate. The pace and make-up of fiscal consolidation and the fiscal policy options have again been subjected to multiple amendments.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure spending, a need rather than a stimulus

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Discussion on infrastructure spending: the economic impact, current state of infrastructure, and funding options

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The beginning of 2017 shows a good performance of fiscal stance

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Spain reached the stability target in 2016, due to expenditure containment and fiscal measures adopted in the last quarter. In 2017, in a favourable economic environment, the recent performance of public accounts suggests that the deficit adjustment continues. 2017 and 2018 stability objectives are achievable, but will require a tight control of public expenditure.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

By , , , ,

We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

Available in English

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

By , , ,

Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

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Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

Document Number 17/11

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We analyse the fiscal policy lessons from the recent recession in the Spanish economy and the options for the future. Our results indicate that budget balance and public debt trends showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011, with few alternatives available other than reducing the fiscal deficit.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English

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Tracking Chinese Vulnerability in Real Time Using Big Data

By , , ,

We develop a new indicator to track Chinese vulnerability sentiment in real time, combining Big Data with key financial indicators and official statistics. Our Chinese Vulnerability and Sentiment Index (CVSI) shows improving risk narratives since 2H16, in line with a pick-up in economic activity and a change in the policy mix put in place by Chinese authorities.

Available in English

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Spain: towards a neutral fiscal policy in 2017 and 2018

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Recent performance of public accounts and the new fiscal measures adopted at the end of the year, anticipates the compliance with the stability target of 2016. The highest deficit adjustment of 2016 was recorded in autonomous communities. The improvement in activity would have been sufficient to bring the public imbalance into line with the targets set for 2017 and 2018.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Brazil | A more negative outlook

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Last week's downgrade to high-yield by S&P was one of the symptoms of the ongoing economic deterioration, which will likely continue ahead. After reviewing our prospects for Brazil, we now expect GDP to drop 2.5% in 2015 and 0.5% in 2016. A weaker exchange rate and a lighter fiscal adjustment should maintain inflation under pressure and prevent SELIC cuts until 2Q16.

Available in English

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