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Mexico | Banxico set to take a pause

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The next monetary policy meeting will be held on Thursday August 10th. We expect Banxico to hold the reference rate at 7.0% inaugurating a period of monetary pause

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

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Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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The CBRT Strengthens its Credibility

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The Central Bank kept its interest rate corridor unchanged. Bearing in mind the stickiness in inflation and the ongoing high momentum of the economic activity, we expect the Bank not to find enough room for monetary easing until the end of the year when the headline will fall towards 9% thanks to favorable base effects on food and tax hikes of last year.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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U.S | FOMC Meeting July 25th-26th

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July meeting opportunity for Fed to keep markets aligned with a gradual tightening path

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: Further steps in the autumn

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As widely expected, the ECB remained on hold, in a unanimous decision. The discussion on tapering of QE to take place in the Autumn, most likely in September. The ECB is paying “attention” to the appreciation of the euro

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey Monthly Economic Monitor | June

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Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT maintains its hawkish tone

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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Interest margins and efficiency. The impact of the crisis across EU countries

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On the wake of the financial crisis, European banks undertook an important restructuring effort. This process was steered by the reaction of investors and public authorities, which adopted new regulation and implemented accommodative monetary policy. Despite the European harmonisation, idiosyncratic country factors led to a very different outcome across countries.

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Banks

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Banco de México: End of the cycle of rate hikes

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Banco de México last Thursday increased its monetary policy rate by 0.25% to 7%

Available in Spanish, English

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Yellen steers the markets

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On Wednesday 14 June, the Federal Reserve stayed true to the script by raising interest rates to 1.25%, although there was more to the move than just the rate hike. There are at least three elements from the recent meeting on monetary policy which deserve special mention.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | The CBRT Keeps the Hawkish Tone

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The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the entire set of its interest rate corridor unchanged. The Bank also preserved the hawkish tone by over looking the expected disinflationary impacts of the fall in energy prices and partial correction in food prices. We expect the Bank to keep the average funding rate close to 12% until the next monetary policy meeting in July.

Units:
Geographies:Turkey

Available in English

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