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Yellen steers the markets

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On Wednesday 14 June, the Federal Reserve stayed true to the script by raising interest rates to 1.25%, although there was more to the move than just the rate hike. There are at least three elements from the recent meeting on monetary policy which deserve special mention.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | The CBRT Keeps the Hawkish Tone

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The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the entire set of its interest rate corridor unchanged. The Bank also preserved the hawkish tone by over looking the expected disinflationary impacts of the fall in energy prices and partial correction in food prices. We expect the Bank to keep the average funding rate close to 12% until the next monetary policy meeting in July.

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Geographies:Turkey

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FOMC June 13-14 Meeting: Wonder Woman Brings Hope to Markets

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In a widely anticipated move, for a third consecutive quarter, the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 1.25%, as the labor market continued to tighten in the Committee’s eyes despite some slowing job gains over the past months

Geographies:USA

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ECB Watch: A first tweak in the forward guidance

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The ECB remove the easing bias on rates. Growth projections are more positive while the inflation outlook remains unchanged despite lower headline inflation projections. In September, we expect the ECB to open the door to tapering next year

Available in Spanish, English

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Geographies:Mexico

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Tracking chinese vulnerability in real time using Big Data

Document Number 17/13

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We develop an indicator to track vulnerability sentiment in China. In order to ensure robustness and depth, we use a combination of traditional macroeconomic and financial time series with textual analysis using Big Data techniques.The index is composed by the following dimensions: state owned enterprises; shadow banking; housing market bubble and exchange rate market.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment edging towards neutral

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) moderated in April after improving since July 2016. The CVSI is now edging to neutral, however the components of the index show divergence. The moderation can be related to a decline in housing and FX components. The shadow banking component remained positive on a tighter monetary policy stance and macroprudential measures.

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ECB closer to a neutral balance of risks

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There was neither a discussion on the exit strategy nor clear hints of an early shift in the policy stance but risks to growth are more balanced (though still downwards). We expect some changes in forward guidance in June

Available in Spanish, English

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The impact of European banking consolidation on credit prices

Document Number 17/09

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The crisis has made obvious the fragility of some aspects of EMU, like financial fragmentation and the need of banking consolidation. Banks have merged due to the vulnerability of some players or in order to improve the profitability/efficiency of the sector.

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Banks

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Mexico | The beginning of the end of the tightening cycle

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A 50 bp “dovish” hike aimed at minimizing the probabilities of second round effects and at setting the conditions for the end of the hiking cycle

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Geographies:Mexico

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