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Banxico: playing it safe

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Banxico raised its policy rate by another 25bp to 7.5%, as widely anticipated, and in line with our and consensus call, given recent communication hawkishness and hints from Banxico's governor ahead of the decision. The policy rate is now at a nine year high.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Banxico will deliver the signaled 25bp hike

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The inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We expect wording changes to signal a possible pause in coming meetings.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Turkey | Inflation fell on base effects as expected

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Consumer prices increased by 1.02% (mom) in January, higher than our forecast (0.75%) but lower than the market call (1.3%). Annual consumer inflation fell to 10.35% from 11.92% thanks to favorable base effects mostly on food. We expect the headline to ease slightly below 10% by end 1Q but then show some volatility before falling to around 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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For 2018 we foresee GDP growing by around 3.5% (and 3.8% in 2019). The increase of just over a percentage point in growth will come about in a context in which the international panorama continues to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. On the domestic front, as well as the return to normal of weather conditions, there will be a fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

By , , , , ,

For 2018 we foresee GDP growing by around 3.5% (and 3.8% in 2019). The increase of just over a percentage point in growth will come about in a context in which the international panorama continues to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. On the domestic front, as well as the return to normal of weather conditions, there will be a fiscal stimulus.

Units:
Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch | The ECB strikes a dovish tone

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The ECB left its forward guidance communication unchanged. Renewed concerns over exchange rate volatility. “Very few chances” of a rate hike this year.

Available in Spanish, English

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Brazil Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The economy has recovered faster than expected in 2017. Taking this and the improvements in the global environment into account, we revised our growth forecasts upwards. We expect that, after growing 1.0% in 2017, GDP will grow 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. However, the materialization of political and fiscal risks could bring the recovery process to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | The CBRT strengthens the stance

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The Central Bank (CBRT) maintained policy rates unchanged, including the late liquidity window (LLW) at 12.75%, in line with expectations. The Bank reinforced the tight sentiment by adding some “verbal tightening” as observed in our Big-Data sentiment of the statement.

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China | Vulnerability sentiment ends 2017 on a high note

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) ended 2017 on a high note, extending previous gains, underpinned by the shift in policy focus towards quality of growth, PBOC’s prudent monetary policy stance, a stable yuan and ongoing efforts to curb risks to financial stability emanating from housing, SOE and the shadow banking sector.

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ECB Watch: ECB on a wait and see stance

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There was no discussion on any change in the QE recalibration. The ECB seems more confident on the economic expansion. Significant upward revision of staff’s growth forecasts.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: The CBRT tightens but lower than expected

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The CBRT hiked the recent de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by only 50bps to 12.75%, disappointing the market call between 75-100bps and our call of 125bps in the average funding rate. The incoming inflation data will be the key input to know whether the CBRT opted today for a gradualist approach or just a wait-and-see attitude.

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FOMC Meeting December 12th-13th

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FOMC: Passing the Baton for Final Phase of Normalization

Geographies:USA

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Mexico |A "hawkish hold" with risks ahead in an unusual context, the best strategy for now

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Monetary Policy should not react to temporary supply shocks. In a close call (70-30 odds) we expect Banxico to hold rates steady at next week’s policy meeting. A hawkish pause is enough for the time being

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Geographies:Mexico

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How do the EM Central Bank talk? A Big Data approach to the Central Bank of Turkey

Document Number 17/24

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We apply the natural language processing or computational linguistics (NLP) to the analysis of the communication policy (i.e statements and minutes) of the Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT). While previous literature has focused on Developed countries, we extend the NLP analysis to the Central Banks of the Emerging Markets using the Dynamic Topic Modelling approach.

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Mexico | Inflation, on a downward course for 2018

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The most recent inflation figure, corresponding to the first half of November, surprised on the upside. After falling in September and October, headline inflation showed an upturn from 6.4% to 6.6%. This increases the likelihood that the Banco de México will increase its monetary policy rate as a preventive measure

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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