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Turkey Economic Activity

Turkey Economic Activity latest publications

May 13, 2022

Turkey | Activity proves resilience so far in 2Q

Industrial Production surprised on the upside in March, growing 9.6% y/y in cal. adj. terms. The weaker performance observed in early April turns out to be a recovery in the recent weeks, which increases the upside risks on our current prudent 2022 GDP growth forecast of 2.5% assuming no substantial negative shocks.

February 28, 2022

Turkey | GDP growth decelerating after strong performance in 2021

Turkish economy grew by 9.1% y/y in 4Q21, which resulted in a full year growth rate of 11% in 2021. Based on high frequency indicators and our big data information, GDP growth is already decelerating to almost 0% q/q growth rate in 1Q22, which corresponds to near 6% y/y. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3.5% for now.

November 30, 2021

Turkey | GDP growth reached 11.7% year-to-date

Turkish economy grew by 7.4% yoy in 3Q21, resulting in a growth rate of 11.7% in the first three quarters of the year. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% forecast. Though, recent currency shock and accompanying tighter financial conditions will likely weigh on the downside for 2022 growth.

November 12, 2021

Turkey | Industrial Production remained strong in 3Q

Industrial Production (IP) grew parallel to expectations by 8.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (8.8% yoy in raw series) in September. We expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9.5% with risks on the upside considering the expansionary bias of the economy policies.

September 1, 2021

Turkey | The economy grew by 21.7% in 2Q21

Turkish economy grew by 21.7% yearly in 2Q21, resulting in a 14.3% growth in the 1H21. The high carry-over impact is over 3Q onwards but the reopening, recovering tourism and exports revenues are still boosting the overall growth rate. We maintain our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9%, with risks still on the upside.

August 12, 2021

Turkey | Solid activity in Q2 despite deceleration

Industrial Production (IP) grew by 24% yoy in both calendar adjusted and unadjusted terms in June, implying above 40% yoy growth in 2Q on the back of base effects. Given the strong activity so far in 1H and upward revisions on the global outlook we expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9%, with risks still on the upside.

July 13, 2021

Turkey | May IP strengthened after the reopening

Industrial Production grew by 41% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, implying 39% yoy growth in unadjusted series, boosted by base effects. Given strong momentum so far and upward revisions in global growth we revise our 2021 GDP growth forecast on the upside to 8% and downgrade our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4%.

June 11, 2021

Turkey | Still not a clear deceleration in activity

Industrial Production grew by 66% YoY in cal. adj. terms in April, boosted by base effects. Despite the 0.9% MoM contraction, the slow down isn't clear, given strong momentum so far and upward revisions in global growth reinforce upside risks for our prudent 2021 GDP growth forecast of 5%.