Turkey Economic Activity

Turkey Economic Activity latest publications

October 14, 2019

Turkey: Unexpected Signal from August IP

Industrial Production (IP) declined by 3.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in August, lower than median market expectation and ours (Consensus:-0.7%, BBVA: -0.5%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a growth rate of +1.5% yoy in September (47% of info). We maintained a prudent forecast of 0.3% growth for 2019.

June 18, 2019

Turkey | Some negative signals from April IP

IP(cal. adj. ) contracted by 4% yoy in April, worse than market expectation (-2.5%). The deceleration in the yearly contraction still continues but loses some steam. Though, supported by the current momentum and positive base effects of 2H19, in absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

May 31, 2019

Turkey | The recession is over but risks are alive

Turkish Economy contracted by 2.6% in annual terms in 1Q19. The economy is now technically out of the recession as the quarterly growth in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms turned into positive by 1.3% after the decline of three previous consecutive quarters. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

October 9, 2017

Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

July 27, 2017

The CBRT Strengthens its Credibility

The Central Bank kept its interest rate corridor unchanged. Bearing in mind the stickiness in inflation and the ongoing high momentum of the economic activity, we expect the Bank not to find enough room for monetary easing until the end of the year when the headline will fall towards 9% thanks to favorable base effects on f…

July 4, 2017

Turkey Monthly Economic Monitor | June

Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT m…