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Turkey growth

Turkey growth latest publications

June 13, 2022

Turkey | Activity confirms an upward trend

Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 10.8% y/y in calendar adjusted terms in April. If no substantial negative shock occurs, given the current pace, it becomes more likely to achieve a full year growth rate close to 5%.

May 31, 2022

Turkey | Growth slowing but keeping a solid pace

Turkish economy grew by 7.3% y/y in 1Q22 parallel to market expectation (7.2%). Given recent high momentum in activity and clear commitment of authorities to maintain loose policies, risks become tilted significantly to the upside on our prudent 2022 GDP growth forecast of 2.5%.

May 13, 2022

Turkey | Activity proves resilience so far in 2Q

Industrial Production surprised on the upside in March, growing 9.6% y/y in cal. adj. terms. The weaker performance observed in early April turns out to be a recovery in the recent weeks, which increases the upside risks on our current prudent 2022 GDP growth forecast of 2.5% assuming no substantial negative shocks.

April 12, 2022

Turkey | Activity in q/q contraction as of April

Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside, increasing 13.3% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs our expectation of 10% and consensus of 7.5%). We expect GDP growth to be 2.5% in 2022.

February 28, 2022

Turkey | GDP growth decelerating after strong performance in 2021

Turkish economy grew by 9.1% y/y in 4Q21, which resulted in a full year growth rate of 11% in 2021. Based on high frequency indicators and our big data information, GDP growth is already decelerating to almost 0% q/q growth rate in 1Q22, which corresponds to near 6% y/y. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 3.5% for now.

January 13, 2022

Turkey | Strong activity indicators in November

Industrial Production (IP) increased by 11.4% yoy in calendar adj. terms (14.7% yoy in raw series) in November higher than the market expectation of 8%. We expect 2022 GDP growth to be realized as 3.5%.

October 12, 2021

Turkey | Rebound in industrial production in August

Industrial Production (IP) grew higher than expectations by 13.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms and 19.9% yoy in raw series in August. Despite the fading positive base effects 3Q onwards, given the strong momentum so far and recovering global growth, we keep our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9% with risks on the upside.

September 13, 2021

Turkey | Negative surprise in July industrial production

Industrial Production (IP) grew remarkably lower than expectations by 8.7% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (cons:15.2%) in July, whereas it contracted by 2.3% yoy in raw series. However given the strong momentum so far and still recovering global growth we maintain our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9%.