Turkey growth latest publications
Industrial Production (IP) in January grew by 7.9% yoy in calendar adjusted terms, lower than both the consensus (8.5%). We maintain our GDP forecast at 4%, with obvious risks on the downside depending on both the magnitude and the duration of the Cvirus shock in the economy and particularly in financial markets.
Industrial Production (IP) declined by 3.6% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in August, lower than median market expectation and ours (Consensus:-0.7%, BBVA: -0.5%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a growth rate of +1.5% yoy in September (47% of info). We maintained a prudent forecast of 0.3% growth for 2019.
IP(cal. adj. ) contracted by 4% yoy in April, worse than market expectation (-2.5%). The deceleration in the yearly contraction still continues but loses some steam. Though, supported by the current momentum and positive base effects of 2H19, in absence of new shocks, we maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.
Turkish Economy contracted by 2.6% in annual terms in 1Q19. The economy is now technically out of the recession as the quarterly growth in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms turned into positive by 1.3% after the decline of three previous consecutive quarters. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.
IP fell by 6.5% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in November, disappointing the expectations (BBVA: -5.8%, Consensus: -5.4%). Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a contraction of 1.6% yoy growth in December (with 32% info), which is still consistent with our 3% 2018 GDP growth estimate but with some downside risks. We maintain…
Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are o…
Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.
Recovery in IP continues with the support from both exporting and domestic demand oriented sectors. We expect the GDP growth in 2Q to accelerate even further, as early signals from May suggest a growth rate close to 6%. Turkish lira stabilized at 3.50-3.55 band as global and local factors balance each other and the CBRT m…