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    June 13, 2022

    Turkey | Activity confirms an upward trend

    Industrial Production continued to surprise on the upside and grew 10.8% y/y in calendar adjusted terms in April. If no substantial negative shock occurs, given the current pace, it becomes more likely to achieve a full year growth rate close to 5%.

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    May 13, 2022

    Turkey | Activity proves resilience so far in 2Q

    Industrial Production surprised on the upside in March, growing 9.6% y/y in cal. adj. terms. The weaker performance observed in early April turns out to be a recovery in the recent weeks, which increases the upside risks on our current prudent 2022 GDP growth forecast of 2.5% assuming no substantial negative shocks.

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    February 11, 2022

    Turkey | Annual GDP set to grow 7% in February

    Industrial Production (IP) surprised on the upside by increasing 14.4% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (vs market expectation of 10.8% in December). We expect 2022 GDP growth to be 3.5%.

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    December 13, 2021

    Turkey | Still robust activity in 4Q

    Industrial Production (IP) increased by 8.5% yoy in calendar adjusted term(5.4% yoy in raw series), in line with the market expectation in October. 2021 GDP growth will likely reach 10.5-11%, beating our current 9.5% GDP growth forecast.

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    September 13, 2021

    Turkey | Negative surprise in July industrial production

    Industrial Production (IP) grew remarkably lower than expectations by 8.7% yoy in calendar adjusted terms (cons:15.2%) in July, whereas it contracted by 2.3% yoy in raw series. However given the strong momentum so far and still recovering global growth we maintain our 2021 GDP growth forecast at 9%.

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    August 12, 2021

    Turkey | Solid activity in Q2 despite deceleration

    Industrial Production (IP) grew by 24% yoy in both calendar adjusted and unadjusted terms in June, implying above 40% yoy growth in 2Q on the back of base effects. Given the strong activity so far in 1H and upward revisions on the global outlook we expect 2021 GDP growth to be 9%, with risks still on the upside.

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    July 13, 2021

    Turkey | May IP strengthened after the reopening

    Industrial Production grew by 41% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in May, implying 39% yoy growth in unadjusted series, boosted by base effects. Given strong momentum so far and upward revisions in global growth we revise our 2021 GDP growth forecast on the upside to 8% and downgrade our 2022 GDP growth forecast to 4%.

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    April 13, 2021

    Turkey | Still solid activity in 1Q21

    Industrial Production (IP) grew by 8.8% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in February, signaling still robust economic activity in 1Q21. Given some uncertainties, we maintain our 5% GDP growth forecast for 2021 by still acknowledging upside risks on our forecast.

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