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Turkey’s Economy

Turkey’s Economy latest publications

May 31, 2019

Turkey | The recession is over but risks are alive

Turkish Economy contracted by 2.6% in annual terms in 1Q19. The economy is now technically out of the recession as the quarterly growth in seasonally and calendar adjusted terms turned into positive by 1.3% after the decline of three previous consecutive quarters. We maintain our GDP growth forecast at 0.3% for 2019.

April 16, 2019

Turkey | IP consolidates the "bottoming-out" signals

Industrial Production (IP) contracted by 5.1% yoy in calendar adjusted terms in February (-6.2% Consensus& -6.7% BBVA Research). IP (sca) recovered by 0.7% in the first 2 months of 2019 compared to 4Q18. A prudent economic policy stance is key to maintain the recovery in the coming quarters as the new round of financial vol…

January 3, 2019

Turkey | Inflation declines again in December

Consumer prices fell by -0.4% in December, leading the annual figure to further ease to 20.3% from 21.6% in November. Considering the recent price regulations, risks are balanced on our year-end inflation expectation of 16%. Though, the path for output gap, oil prices and currency volatility will be the determinant factors …

June 4, 2018

Turkey | Inflation outlook deteriorated further in May

Consumer prices increased 1.62% (mom) in May, slightly higher than BBVA Research & Consensus estimate of 1.45%. Annual consumer inflation jumped to 12.15% from 10.85% on a broad-based worsening. We expect a limited hike (around 50bps) in the next CBRT meeting on June, 7 to strengthen its recent policy decisions and enhance …

September 8, 2017

Turkey: Activity accelerates further

Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expe…

September 5, 2017

Inflation: Outlook worsens on core dynamics

In August, consumer prices rose by 0.52%, higher than the consensus (0.1%) and even our estimate (0.3%). FX pass-through mostly on the recent appreciation of Euro, second round price effects and spill-overs from the narrowing output gap continued to be the factors behind. We expect the headline to stay close to 11% before i…

August 8, 2017

Turkey: Strong … and accelerating activity

Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are o…

August 1, 2017

Turkey | Monthly Economic Monitor - July 2017

Robust stance in the economic activity continued in 2Q, according to our nowcast. Inflation will ease further in summer on top of favorable base effects before climbing up again in 3Q. The CBRT strengthened its hawkish stance by keeping its interest rates intact and having the average funding rate hover above 11.9%.