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BBVA Research
Jorge Sicilia
Chief Economist
BBVA Research, led by Jorge Sicilia, is a global area within BBVA dedicated to providing economic and regulatory analysis on the geographical areas in which the Bank operates. Our first goal is the dissemination of this economic and regulatory analysis to increase awareness in society on these matters and encourage public debate.
Personal Assistant | María Pérez-Crespo

Latest Publications

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China Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2018

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The Q4 GDP growth came at 6.8% y/y, marginally surprised the market to the upside. China’s GDP grew by 6.9% in 2017, higher than the 2016 reading of 6.7%. That being said, China has successful staged a growth recovery last year, synchronized with the rest of the world, despite headwinds from prudential monetary policy, financial tightening as well as supply-side reforms.

Available in English

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Brazil Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2018

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The economy has recovered faster than expected in 2017. Taking this and the improvements in the global environment into account, we revised our growth forecasts upwards. We expect that, after growing 1.0% in 2017, GDP will grow 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. However, the materialization of political and fiscal risks could bring the recovery process to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | A soft-landing in 2017

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December indicators reported today, together with Q4 GDP outturns, marginally exceeded market expectations. For 2017, China’s economy achieved a soft-landing synchronized with the rest of the world. Looking ahead, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to rein in shadow banking activities are set to weigh on growth.

Available in English

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China | The changing role of RRR in new monetary policy framework

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The recent two unconventional RRR cuts suggest the authorities set out to dethrone RRR from a monetary loosening or tightening tool. Instead, the PBoC now uses RRR cuts for liquidity management purpose. As monetary policy framework is migrating to a “corridor system”, the traditional quantitative tools adjustments have to give their way to new price tools.

Available in English

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China | From great miracle to great moderation: potential GDP estimation of China

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In the recently concluded 19th Party’s National Congress, the authorities have come up with a two-stage development plan. Using traditional Cobb-Douglas production function to gauge China’s potential GDP, we found China’s per capita GDP can increase to USD 21,000 (constant price of today) by 2035, in line with the authorities’ target of achieving “social modernization”.

Available in English

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Eurozone | GDP projected at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q puts an upward bias to our forecasts

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a GDP growth at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q, signaling a steady pace or mild acceleration. Confidence increased further in December to record levels. Hard data were somewhat disappointing in October, but these not seem to affect the underlying trend. Inflation increased slightly to 1.5% but the core measure remained stable and subdued at 1.1% in November.

Available in Spanish, English

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ECB Watch: ECB on a wait and see stance

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There was no discussion on any change in the QE recalibration. The ECB seems more confident on the economic expansion. Significant upward revision of staff’s growth forecasts.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Growth moderation continues

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November economic indicators reported today were generally below the previous readings. Meanwhile, the credit figures kept at a relatively high level as the authorities want to maintain market liquidity toward end-year. As anticipated, the economy continued its moderation in Q4 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives.

Available in English

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Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2017

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Global risk aversion stabilizes at historically low levels. Despite recent geopolitical tensions, all indicators remain virtually unchanged. Continued decline in sovereign CDS over the past year has led many countries to reach new historical lows

Available in Spanish, English

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Outgoing central bankers

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A couple of weeks ago, the conference organised in Frankfurt by the European Central Bank (ECB), to discuss the challenges of communicating monetary policy, offered up the opportunity for a photo of the chairs of the four main central banks,

Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Crossroads, trends and challenges in an uncertain world

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Long-term drivers in a troublesome world: geopolitics are extremely troubling, populism is rising and is here to stay, long term economic facts, protectionism is a still a (high) risk, digitalization and robotics are all around and macro policy framework is changing.

Available in English

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China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

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October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

Available in English

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China | China opens financial sector to more foreign ownership

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China has taken a major step toward the long-awaited opening of its financial market. On last Friday, unveiled at a government briefing, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said China will remove foreign ownership limits on banks while allowing overseas firms to take majority stakes in local securities ventures, fund managers and life insurance companies.

Available in English

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ECB Watch: The ECB delivers a "down size" of the APP

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The ECB has opted for an alternative way to taper QE, downsizing monthly purchases to 30 bn euros. The Asset Purchase Programme remains open-ended, extended until September 2018 or beyond. The size of the ECB’s balance sheet and forward guidance will replace net purchases as the main tool for monetary policy

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

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China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

Available in English