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BBVA Research
Jorge Sicilia
Chief Economist
BBVA Research, led by Jorge Sicilia, is a global area within BBVA dedicated to providing economic and regulatory analysis on the geographical areas in which the Bank operates. Our first goal is the dissemination of this economic and regulatory analysis to increase awareness in society on these matters and encourage public debate.
Personal Assistant | Maria del Carmen Gonzalez Personal Assistant | María Pérez-Crespo

Latest Publications

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China | Growth slowdown continues

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July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.

Available in English

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The ECB reaffirmed its way out

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As widely expected, at today’s monetary policy meeting there were no changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance, as the central bank left key interest rates unchanged and reiterated that it expects the key ECB interest rates to remain “at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019".

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks

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Confidence seem to level off pointing to a steady growth in 2H18. The 1Q18 slowdown in activity added to increasing uncertainty and higher commodity prices lead us to slash GDP growth forecasts to 2% and 1.7% in 2018-19. Higher oil prices and a weaker euro increase our headline inflation forecasts to 1.7% and 1.8% for this year and next. Trade war risks have intensified.

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Q2 GDP moderated to 6.7% y/y amid the trade war and domestic deleveraging, down from the previous reading at 6.8% y/y and in line with the consensus. In particular, outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are below the market expectations and the previous readings. Headwinds are from domestic deleveraging initiatives and trade war with the US externally.

Available in English

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Global | Steady global growth, but risks intensify

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Global growth remains steady and our World GDP projections remain unchanged at 3.8% for both 2018-19, but with more divergence across areas. The US continues strong and China should decelerate as expected, but we have revised down growth for the Eurozone. Risks have increased and above all, protectionism could trim growth in the quarters ahead.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | What will be the country’s weapons in the trade war arsenal?

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After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.

Available in English

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Eurozone | Growth moderation has continued in Q2 and headline inflation has shot up

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The Eurozone could grow at about 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter after a similar figure in 1Q18, according to our BBVA-MICA model. This poses a downward bias to our 2.3% growth forecast for 2018. Inflation accelerated rapidly in May (1.9%) due to higher commodity prices and the euro depreciation, but the core component has progressed as expected to 1.3%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth is still holding up despite increasing uncertainty

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Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB delivers on QE exit and gives strong guidance on rates

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The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Growth moderation amid trade risk and domestic deleveraging

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May economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, all indicators dropped from the previous readings and the market expectations. This suggests that headwinds are weighing on growth, mainly from domestic tightening policy and the unsettled trade skirmishes.

Available in English

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China | What do China’s renewed opening efforts imply for foreign banks?

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China announced a plan of furthering its long-delayed financial opening to remove restrictions on foreign shareholdings and expand market access. A new round of capital account liberalization also brings more opportunities for two-way capital flows. This watch examines how these new measures can help foreign financial institutions to grow in China and their implications.

Available in English

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Country Risk Quarterly Report. Second quarter 2018

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During May we have seen the first overall increase in CDS spreads since Nov-2016. However, the recent turmoil in EMs has merely impacted on Global Risk Aversion (GRA). Our newly developed indicator of EM FX synchronization indicates that the recent depreciation in EM FX rates has had a relatively low level of synchronization among EMs currencies

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Reignited China-US trade war and its implication on global value chain

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We attempt to evaluate the impact of the newly announced 25% tariff on Chinese imports of USD 50 billion from the perspective of global value chain. The result shows that the newly proposed punitive measure from the US side can have limited impact on China’s growth and exports, even to a much less extent on other countries on the same global value chain.

Available in English

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China | Financial liberalization: time to restart

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The process of China’s financial liberalization ground to a halt in 2015-2017 after experiencing a cluster of episodes of financial turmoil. After a few years of adjustment, the authorities now seem to be ready to press ahead with their agenda of financial liberalization again. Moreover, the authorities’ renewed interest in financial liberalization is broad-based.

Available in English

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China | Growth moderation amid trade war risk

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April economic indicators announced today point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, fixed asset investment and retail sales both dropped from the previous readings, although industrial production maintained its momentum. This suggests that growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US.

Available in English