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BBVA Research
Jorge Sicilia
Chief Economist
BBVA Research, led by Jorge Sicilia, is a global area within BBVA dedicated to providing economic and regulatory analysis on the geographical areas in which the Bank operates. Our first goal is the dissemination of this economic and regulatory analysis to increase awareness in society on these matters and encourage public debate.
Personal Assistant | María Pérez-Crespo

Latest Publications

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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

Available in English

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

Available in English

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China | Solid recovery continues in July

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Despite a lull of moderation in April-May, China’s economic recovery has staged a comeback at mid-year. The official manufacturing PMI in July remained in the expansionary territory at 51.4 (consensus: 51.5), although slightly below the previous strong reading at 51.7. Meanwhile, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI significantly surged to 51.1 from 50.4 in the previous month。

Available in English

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ECB Watch: Further steps in the autumn

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As widely expected, the ECB remained on hold, in a unanimous decision. The discussion on tapering of QE to take place in the Autumn, most likely in September. The ECB is paying “attention” to the appreciation of the euro

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

Available in English

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China | Growth momentum is stronger than market expectations

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2017 Q2 GDP reached 6.9% y/y, flat with Q1 outturn and higher than the market concensus of 6.8% y/y, suggesting growth momentum is stronger than expected. The strong growth momentum is reflected in a batch of economic activity indicators released today. Both surging external demand and comparatively easing credit condition in June contributed to the good performance.

Available in English

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Is globalization at risk? Some conventional views…

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The backslash to globalization following the financial crisis brought about lower trade and higher trade barriers, but more recently there has been some reaction to potential threats of protectionism. In particular, big data shows better sentiment on NAFTA.

Geographies:Global

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The threat to globalization and technological change: impacts

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After widespread benefits, especially and unquestionably for EM’s, support for globalization is retreating. Digital technologies and robots are seen as a threat to employment, though probably this is not the case. The backslash has been manifested in advanced economies through populism, which has complex roots.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: renewables, the answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The outlook for global wind energy is positive. Although government support will continue to play an important role in the development of the wind energy projects, ongoing productivity gains are expected to make subsidies and tax breaks less relevant over time.

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China: June PMIs indicate an stronger-than-expected growth momentum

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China’s official manufacturing PMI (released by NBS last Friday) picked up significantly to 51.7 in June from 51.2 in May, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51). Following the same trend, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI announced today, which includes a survey sample tilting toward SMEs and exporters, increased to 50.4 in June from 49.6 in the previous month.

Available in English

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Renewables: The answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The prevalence of fossil fuels in the production of electricity is being challenged by the rapid expansion of renewable sources such as wind and solar. Around the world, wind energy capacity has increased fivefold since 2007, reaching 487GW in 2016

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

Available in English

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ECB Watch: A first tweak in the forward guidance

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The ECB remove the easing bias on rates. Growth projections are more positive while the inflation outlook remains unchanged despite lower headline inflation projections. In September, we expect the ECB to open the door to tapering next year

Available in Spanish, English