alert_servicealert_serviceENTER user_add user_add NEW USER

Forgot your password?


Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
x

Your space


Forgot your password?
x

Login to participate



Not registered yet? Register now
x
Make your search by entering the text:
Make your search for other criteria:
BBVA Research
Jorge Sicilia
Chief Economist
BBVA Research, led by Jorge Sicilia, is a global area within BBVA dedicated to providing economic and regulatory analysis on the geographical areas in which the Bank operates. Our first goal is the dissemination of this economic and regulatory analysis to increase awareness in society on these matters and encourage public debate.
Personal Assistant | María Pérez-Crespo

Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

China | Financial liberalization: time to restart

By ,

The process of China’s financial liberalization ground to a halt in 2015-2017 after experiencing a cluster of episodes of financial turmoil. After a few years of adjustment, the authorities now seem to be ready to press ahead with their agenda of financial liberalization again. Moreover, the authorities’ renewed interest in financial liberalization is broad-based.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Growth moderation amid trade war risk

By ,

April economic indicators announced today point to an expected moderation in growth. In particular, fixed asset investment and retail sales both dropped from the previous readings, although industrial production maintained its momentum. This suggests that growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Measuring Retail Trade using Card Transactional Data

By , , , , , , , ,

We construct a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain using data from BBVA clientS from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale terminals. Results indexes are robust when compared with the Spanish RTI, regional RTI, and RTI published by the INE.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Detecting China’s Financial Vulnerabilities

By , , ,

On the backdrop of a solid growth in Q1, the China Vulnerability Sentiment Index broadly remained stable driven by SOE and Shadow banking Vunerability index, despite the new emerging risk of Sino-US trade tensions. However, Housing Bubble and Exchange Rate Vulnerability index deteriorated as property prices remained resilient as well as RMB's recent appreciation.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

ECB Watch | Draghi calm on recent data but more vigilant on protectionism

By , , ,

The ECB left the main lines of its forward guidance unchanged. Draghi did not sound much worried about growth moderation but vigilant on protectionism. There was no discussion on the next steps of monetary policy.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

China | Not time to say goodbye to HKD peg

By ,

The HKD depreciated from the strong end of its narrow band of 7.75 to near its weak end of 7.85 against the USD in mid-April, touching its lowest level since 2005. Despite some rising voices of questioning the sustainability of the linked exchange rate in the market, we firmly believe that foregoing the USD peg is an unlikely scenario in the short term for Hong Kong.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Robust growth in Q1 2018

By

Q1 GDP growth reached 6.8% y/y, in line with the previous reading and the market expectation, indicating that Q1 economic growth is robust. However, growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US. The growth is most likely to moderate through the rest of the year.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By ,

Q1 economic indicators are robust. The outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are better than expected. However, headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy and trade skirmishes with the US, which, in our baseline scenario, is unlikely to evolve into a full-blown trade war. Growth is most likely to moderate through the year.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | President Xi announced more opening-up policies in Boao forum

By

Today, Chinese President Xi Jinping has delivered his keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual summit that's been dubbed the "Asian Davos," in which he highlighted his support for opening up policies and regional economic integration. The speech came amid the escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Central Bank Digital Currencies in LatAm

By , , , , ,

We identified the most relevant factors for the implementation of a CBDC in LatAm, under different designs. We concluded that the region could benefit more from the adoption of a CBDC than developed countries. However, the existence of costs associated with implementation casts uncertainty on where it will be adopted first.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | How resilient is the economy to housing price fall?

By ,

Real estate fluctuations have important implications for growth and business cycles in China. We investigate how vulnerable are four economic sectors including government, banking, enterprises and households to the prospective price slowdown in the housing market by analyzing the exposure of these sectors on the housing market and conduct a stress test on these sectors.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Growth picked up at the beginning of 2018

By

January and February economic indicators were reported today, most of which exceeded market expectations and the previous readings. This indicates that growth has been in a steady trend during the NPC and CPPCC. However, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts of financial deleveraging and supply-side reforms.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

ECB Watch | Another step towards monetary policy normalization, as expected

By , , ,

The ECB removed the easing bias on the Asset Purchase Programme. Macro projections remained mostly unchanged. Protectionism (re)emerges as a downside risk.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Country Risk Quarterly Report. First Quarter 2018

By

Following the recent turmoil in equity markets during February, we have observed a decoupling of different Global Risk Aversion (GRA) indicators. Markets seem to be giving much less value to the risk accounted for sovereign ratings. The tightening of sovereign spreads (CDS) is outstanding.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

China | A preview of the NPC and CPPC sessions

By ,

On March 5th, Chinese lawmakers will convene at Beijing for the National People’s Congress. The Premier will announce key economic targets for 2018, including growth, CPI, M2 and fiscal budget etc. Although there will be personnel change for the PBoC governor, the PBoC will maintain prudent monetary policy stance. Tax cut and property tax are expected to be discussed.

Available in English