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BBVA Research
Jorge Sicilia
Chief Economist
BBVA Research, led by Jorge Sicilia, is a global area within BBVA dedicated to providing economic and regulatory analysis on the geographical areas in which the Bank operates. Our first goal is the dissemination of this economic and regulatory analysis to increase awareness in society on these matters and encourage public debate.
Personal Assistant | María Pérez-Crespo Personal Assistant | MaríadelCarmen Santiago López

Latest Publications

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Global | More moderate and heterogeneous growth, with increasing risks

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We have revised downwards our forecasts for global growth to 3.7% in 2018 and 3.6% in 2019 due to the recent slowdown in emerging markets, in a context of monetary policy normalization and intensification of risks related to protectionism and political uncertainty. The US is expected to grow at 2.8% in 2018 and 2019, while the Eurozone and China will decelerate next year.

Available in English

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China | Growth slowdown in Q3 calls for more easing measures

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Sep economic indicators, together with Q3 GDP, were reported today. Q3 GDP growth slowed down to 6.5% y/y, compared with 6.7% y/y in the previous quarter and 6.6% of the market consensus. This suggests the economy further moderated amid the escalation of trade war and domestic deleveraging. We expect monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth in the rest of year.

Available in English

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Eurozone | Steady growth supported by domestic demand, with signs of global headwinds

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After the deceleration in Q1, Eurozone GDP growth remains steady at +0.4% q/q thanks to resilient domestic demand. However, industrial output has weakened and leading indicators signal lower volume of export orders due to potential downside effects from increased protectionism. Inflation remains subdued. Risks are related to a cliff-edge Brexit and Italy's fiscal policy.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Solid global growth, but moderating amid heightened risks

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Global growth moderates, but remains in line with our GDP growth projections of 3.8% for 2018. Manufacturing activity has lost momentum and the impact from protectionism is starting to weigh on confidence, global trade and investment. Risks have also heightened over the summer due to political uncertainty and idiosyncratic vulnerabilities in emerging markets.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Recent easing measures helped to stabilize growth

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August economic indicators are announced today, suggesting the recent monetary and fiscal easing measures helped to stabilize economic growth. However, headwinds from domestic deleveraging and the escalating trade war will continue to weigh on growth. Monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth although the authorities remain vigilant on financial vulnerabilities.

Available in English

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Country Risk Quarterly Report. Third Quarter 2018

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The increased synchronization and depreciation of Emerging Market's currencies due to both Fed normalization process and, in some cases, idiosyncratic vulnerabilities uprise, have not become a full sell-off across geographies and assets. Beyond markets ups and downs, the resumed leverage trend is a concern for some countries (China)

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Growth slowdown continues

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July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.

Available in English

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The ECB reaffirmed its way out

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As widely expected, at today’s monetary policy meeting there were no changes in the ECB’s monetary policy stance, as the central bank left key interest rates unchanged and reiterated that it expects the key ECB interest rates to remain “at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019".

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks

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Confidence seem to level off pointing to a steady growth in 2H18. The 1Q18 slowdown in activity added to increasing uncertainty and higher commodity prices lead us to slash GDP growth forecasts to 2% and 1.7% in 2018-19. Higher oil prices and a weaker euro increase our headline inflation forecasts to 1.7% and 1.8% for this year and next. Trade war risks have intensified.

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Q2 GDP moderated to 6.7% y/y amid the trade war and domestic deleveraging, down from the previous reading at 6.8% y/y and in line with the consensus. In particular, outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are below the market expectations and the previous readings. Headwinds are from domestic deleveraging initiatives and trade war with the US externally.

Available in English

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Global | Steady global growth, but risks intensify

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Global growth remains steady and our World GDP projections remain unchanged at 3.8% for both 2018-19, but with more divergence across areas. The US continues strong and China should decelerate as expected, but we have revised down growth for the Eurozone. Risks have increased and above all, protectionism could trim growth in the quarters ahead.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | What will be the country’s weapons in the trade war arsenal?

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After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.

Available in English

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Eurozone | Growth moderation has continued in Q2 and headline inflation has shot up

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The Eurozone could grow at about 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter after a similar figure in 1Q18, according to our BBVA-MICA model. This poses a downward bias to our 2.3% growth forecast for 2018. Inflation accelerated rapidly in May (1.9%) due to higher commodity prices and the euro depreciation, but the core component has progressed as expected to 1.3%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth is still holding up despite increasing uncertainty

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Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.

Available in Spanish, English

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The ECB delivers on QE exit and gives strong guidance on rates

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The Asset Purchase Programme will end in December 2018. However, interest rates will remain on hold at least until the summer 2019, later than expected. Macro projections were revised in line with expectations: GDP down in 2018 to 2.1% and inflation up in 2018 and 2019 to 1.7%.

Available in Spanish, English