alert_servicealert_serviceENTER user_add user_add NEW USER

Forgot your password?


Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
x

Your space


Forgot your password?
x

Login to participate



Not registered yet? Register now
x
Make your search by entering the text:
Make your search for other criteria:
Macroeconomic Analysis
Rafael Doménech
Head Economist
Led by Rafael Doménech, it comprehensively monitors and analyses the world economy’s economic activity, financial and raw material markets, capital flows, central banks and economic policies in the short and medium terms, coordinating the economic and financial forecasts with BBVA Research geographical units, to which it provides technical support. It also analyses the risks on the global economic scene, with particular attention to world trade, capital flows and interest rates, the digital economy, growth potential, productivity and demographics.
Personal Assistant | Ana Carregui

Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks

By , , , ,

Confidence weakened in 1Q18 and hard data start to reflect this softer mood, although fundamentals remain robust. We keep our growth forecasts broadly unchanged, reaching 2.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. Inflation is expected to hover around 1.5% during 2018-19 but increasing gradually, driven by core components. Risks are tilted to increased protectionism.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | Robust growth in Q1 2018

By

Q1 GDP growth reached 6.8% y/y, in line with the previous reading and the market expectation, indicating that Q1 economic growth is robust. However, growth headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy initiatives and trade skirmishes with the US. The growth is most likely to moderate through the rest of the year.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | Growth remains firm but risks intensify

By , , , , ,

The strength of the world economy is being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. We maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for 2018-19 with some adjustments across regions. To complement our analysis we add a brief note.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

China Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

By ,

Q1 economic indicators are robust. The outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are better than expected. However, headwinds remain in place, mainly from domestic tightening policy and trade skirmishes with the US, which, in our baseline scenario, is unlikely to evolve into a full-blown trade war. Growth is most likely to moderate through the year.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

China | President Xi announced more opening-up policies in Boao forum

By

Today, Chinese President Xi Jinping has delivered his keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual summit that's been dubbed the "Asian Davos," in which he highlighted his support for opening up policies and regional economic integration. The speech came amid the escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

The education level of the population of Spain and its regions. Update to 2016

By ,

Using data from the Economically Active Population Survey (EPA), this study expands the annual series on the education level of the population of Spain and its regions up to 2016 that were created by de la Fuente and Doménech (2016) for the period between 1960 and 2011.

Available in Spanish

Catalog Icon

China | How resilient is the economy to housing price fall?

By ,

Real estate fluctuations have important implications for growth and business cycles in China. We investigate how vulnerable are four economic sectors including government, banking, enterprises and households to the prospective price slowdown in the housing market by analyzing the exposure of these sectors on the housing market and conduct a stress test on these sectors.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | Strong momentum continues in 1Q18 driven by trade, despite some weaker data in DM

By , , , , ,

Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | The moderation of confidence continues

By , , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, while the core figure remained steady at 1.2%.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Let's not put the future of pensions at risk

By

Pensions are again at the heart of an intense debate. Adjustment for inflation and the repeal of the 2011 and 2013 reforms are among the demands that are putting the sustainability of the system, and consequently the sufficiency of future pensions, at risk.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

China | Growth picked up at the beginning of 2018

By

January and February economic indicators were reported today, most of which exceeded market expectations and the previous readings. This indicates that growth has been in a steady trend during the NPC and CPPCC. However, the economy is expected to continue its moderation as the authorities’ stepped-up efforts of financial deleveraging and supply-side reforms.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Balearic Islands Economic Outlook 2018

By

The economy of the Balearic Islands is estimated to have grown at 4.1% in 2017. Looking ahead, regional GDP is expected to grow by 3.0% in 2018 and 2.6% in 2019. This would allow the creation of 36,000 new jobs and would reduce the unemployment rate to 7.1% at the end of 2019, very close to the historical low reached in 3Q16 (5.5%).

Available in Spanish

Catalog Icon

Measuring Retail Trade Using Card Transactional Data

Document Number 18/03

By , , , , , , , ,

In this paper we present a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain, using Big Data sources and techniques. The data are the footprints of BBVA clients from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale (PoS) terminals.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Turkey | Slightly higher than expected inflation

By , ,

Consumer prices increased by 0.73% (mom) in February, higher than both our and market expectation (0.6% and 0.5%, respectively). Along with base effects, the overall impact helped annual CPI to fall to only 10.26% from 10.35%. The headline may exercise between 9.5-10% till June and worsen further during summer before falling to around 9% on base effects at the end of 2018.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

The impact of technological change and the future of employment

By

In this presentation, held at the 4th Tax and Finance Law Meeting at the Tax Studies Institute, an overview and history are given of the effects of technological progress. The effects of Industrial Revolution 4.0 are analysed and public policies are addressed, as well as the management of technological and digital transformation.

Available in Spanish