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Macroeconomic Analysis
Rafael Doménech
Head Economist
Led by Rafael Doménech, it comprehensively monitors and analyses the world economy’s economic activity, financial and raw material markets, capital flows, central banks and economic policies in the short and medium terms, coordinating the economic and financial forecasts with BBVA Research geographical units, to which it provides technical support. It also analyses the risks on the global economic scene, with particular attention to world trade, capital flows and interest rates, the digital economy, growth potential, productivity and demographics.
Personal Assistant | Ana Carregui

Latest Publications

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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

Available in English

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

Available in English

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Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

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Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

Available in English

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China | Solid recovery continues in July

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Despite a lull of moderation in April-May, China’s economic recovery has staged a comeback at mid-year. The official manufacturing PMI in July remained in the expansionary territory at 51.4 (consensus: 51.5), although slightly below the previous strong reading at 51.7. Meanwhile, Caixin China Manufacturing PMI significantly surged to 51.1 from 50.4 in the previous month。

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Notwithstanding the authorities’ stepped-up efforts to cool down the property market and curb shadow banking, Chinese economy continued its good performance in Q2 with GDP outturn at 6.9% YoY, flat with the Q1 reading and higher than the market consensus. We raise our 2017 growth forecast to tally with the official target of 6.5% from 6.3%.

Available in English

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China | Growth momentum is stronger than market expectations

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2017 Q2 GDP reached 6.9% y/y, flat with Q1 outturn and higher than the market concensus of 6.8% y/y, suggesting growth momentum is stronger than expected. The strong growth momentum is reflected in a batch of economic activity indicators released today. Both surging external demand and comparatively easing credit condition in June contributed to the good performance.

Available in English

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China: June PMIs indicate an stronger-than-expected growth momentum

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China’s official manufacturing PMI (released by NBS last Friday) picked up significantly to 51.7 in June from 51.2 in May, well above market expectations (Consensus: 51). Following the same trend, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI announced today, which includes a survey sample tilting toward SMEs and exporters, increased to 50.4 in June from 49.6 in the previous month.

Available in English

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Fiscal Policy in Europe: Lessons from the Crisis and Options for the Future

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We analyse fiscal policy in the Eurozone during the last crisis in order to obtain the main lessons for the current debate on how to strength the European Monetary Union. We show that the interaction between uncertainties on national policies of countries with macroeconomic imbalances and an incomplete monetary union.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: personal income, spending and consumer confidence

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 26, 2017

Geographies:USA

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Budgetary stability and reforms: lessons from the crisis and challenges pending

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All the signs are that in the next few days Congress will give its definitive approval to the General State Budget for 2017 following intense debate. The pace and make-up of fiscal consolidation and the fiscal policy options have again been subjected to multiple amendments.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Economic moderation continues

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in Q1, Chinese economy continued its moderation in May, reflected in a batch of important activity indicators reported today. Growth moderation is partly due to the authorities’ monetary prudence targeted at shadow banking and the overheating property market. We maintain our growth projection of 6.3% for 2017.

Available in English

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Budgetary stability and structural reforms in Spain

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Budget balances and public debt in Spain showed clear signs of unsustainability between 2009 and 2011. Despite the fiscal consolidation implemented since then, the increase in public debt has also considerable costs in terms of GDP, employment and private investment.

Available in Spanish, English

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The Future of Employment

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The technological and digital transformation under way, known as the fourth industrial revolution, has given rise to intense debate about its effects on employment. Opinions are divided.

Available in Spanish, English

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Reflection paper on the future of the Eurozone

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The European Commission has published a reflection paper on the future of the euro area, the proposals in two steps (up to 2019 and to 2025) on key issues such as banking and capital markets union, centralization of supervision in markets and insurances, safe bonds, regulation of sovereign debt on bank balances, fiscal stabilization and a European Treasury.

Available in English