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Macroeconomic Analysis
Rafael Doménech
Head Economist
Led by Rafael Doménech, it comprehensively monitors and analyses the world economy’s economic activity, financial and raw material markets, capital flows, central banks and economic policies in the short and medium terms, coordinating the economic and financial forecasts with BBVA Research geographical units, to which it provides technical support. It also analyses the risks on the global economic scene, with particular attention to world trade, capital flows and interest rates, the digital economy, growth potential, productivity and demographics.
Personal Assistant | Ana Carregui

Latest Publications

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Turkey: The CBRT tightens but lower than expected

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The CBRT hiked the recent de-facto policy rate (late liquidity window, LLW) by only 50bps to 12.75%, disappointing the market call between 75-100bps and our call of 125bps in the average funding rate. The incoming inflation data will be the key input to know whether the CBRT opted today for a gradualist approach or just a wait-and-see attitude.

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International experiences of De-dollarization: What could be done in the Turkish case?

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Financial dollarization exposes countries to shocks which can trigger severe financial and economic problems. This note describes a few successful country experiences of de-dollarization. A key lesson is that macroeconomic stability and particularly price stability and low inflation is a pre-condition for starting a successful de-dollarization process.

Available in English

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China | Growth moderation continues

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November economic indicators reported today were generally below the previous readings. Meanwhile, the credit figures kept at a relatively high level as the authorities want to maintain market liquidity toward end-year. As anticipated, the economy continued its moderation in Q4 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives.

Available in English

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Turkey: Domestic demand boosts GDP

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The GDP growth rate of 3Q17 surprised on the upside at 11.1% (8.5% both BBVA-GB and consensus), which was supported by the Government’s counter-cyclical measures, favorable base year impact and working day adjustments. This strong figure and an already promising 4Q17 nowcast will lead us to significantly upgrade our already high GDP forecast (6%) to near 7% for 2017.

Available in English

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Europe is picking up on several fronts

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Nobody will have failed to notice that Europe’s economy is responding better than many had thought a little over a year ago, when there was not much faith in the sustainability of growth. Moreover, the outcome of the Brexit referendum and the problematical election schedule had increased the risks looking ahead into 2017.

Available in Spanish, English

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Crossroads, trends and challenges in an uncertain world

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Long-term drivers in a troublesome world: geopolitics are extremely troubling, populism is rising and is here to stay, long term economic facts, protectionism is a still a (high) risk, digitalization and robotics are all around and macro policy framework is changing.

Available in English

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The impact of technological change and the future of employment

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This presentation provides a panoramic and historical perspective on the the effects of technical progress; it analyses the effects of the fourth industrial revolution; and talks about the different policies to regulate the changes of this technological and digital transformation.

Available in Spanish

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Digital transformation and employment

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The effects of automation, artificial intelligence, big data and the internet of things on future employment and social wellbeing are full of uncertainty.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

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The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

Available in English

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China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

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October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

Available in English

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China | China opens financial sector to more foreign ownership

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China has taken a major step toward the long-awaited opening of its financial market. On last Friday, unveiled at a government briefing, Vice Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said China will remove foreign ownership limits on banks while allowing overseas firms to take majority stakes in local securities ventures, fund managers and life insurance companies.

Available in English

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A little more, a little less said at the IMF meetings this autumn

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Two weeks have gone by since the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund, where the organisation once again increased its forecast for global growth. Today I want to go over the three macroeconomic subjects on which there was consensus and to highlight the two items that drew my attention the most.

Available in Spanish, English

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Inflation: Further Worsening over Core Prices

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Consumer prices increased by 2.08% (mom) in October, higher than the consensus (1.7%) and our forecast (1.9%). Annual consumer inflation jumped up to 11.9% from 11.2% on still worsening core inflation and renewed pick-up in energy prices.

Available in English

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Big Data & Big Models at BBVA Research

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1. Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research; 2. Geopolitics, Trade and Spill overs; 3. Economic & Risk indicators in Real Time; 4. Text Mining and Sentiment analysis

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

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China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

Available in English