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Macroeconomic Analysis
Rafael Doménech
Head Economist
Led by Rafael Doménech, it comprehensively monitors and analyses the world economy’s economic activity, financial and raw material markets, capital flows, central banks and economic policies in the short and medium terms, coordinating the economic and financial forecasts with BBVA Research geographical units, to which it provides technical support. It also analyses the risks on the global economic scene, with particular attention to world trade, capital flows and interest rates, the digital economy, growth potential, productivity and demographics.
Personal Assistant | Ana Carregui

Latest Publications

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Turkey: Credit Shock & the Economy

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Since the implementation of the Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) last March, it has provided some extra GDP growth through both the increase in supply and demand of credit, but it will also have side effects. In this watch, we use a Sign Restrictions SVAR model to disentangle the effects of the KGF on the economy from both supply and demand of credit.

Available in English

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Turkey: Robust Activity in 3Q

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In August, industrial production (IP) growth came in at 5.2% yoy (cal.adj.) and retail sales index’ growth rate accelerated further. As August data signals further acceleration in the economic activity, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 8.2% growth for 3Q (26% information for September).

Available in English

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Pensions, economic growth and welfare in advanced economies

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In this presentation we analyse the effects of pension systems on growth and welfare, seeking an efficient balance between contributiveness, distortions, incentives, and equality and insurance against risks. PAYG systems should remain a fundamental part of the welfare state, using notional accounts and minimum pensions to reduce inequality and the risk of social exclusion.

Available in English

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Inflation: Another surprise from core inflation

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CPI increased by 0.65% (mom) in September. Annual consumer inflation, hence, rose to 11.2% from August’s 10.7%. Core inflation was the negative surprise, reaching 11%. Negative food inflation in contrast to its seasonal average avoided the headline to climb up further. We expect the headline to increase further before it reaches 10% at the end of 2017 with base effects.

Available in English

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The Spanish Labor Market: Reform Achievements and Challenges

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We analyse the main characteristics of the Spanish labour market, its performance during the crisis, the macroeconomic effects of the reforms since 2012, and its challenges during the current recovery. High levels of unemployment, temporary employment and inequality call for further measures to achieve a more efficient, equitable and inclusive labour market.

Available in English

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Taxes, growth and social welfare

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As Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. stated in 1904, and as appears inscribed on the façade of the US Internal Revenue Service Building, “taxes are what we pay for a civilized society”. However, it is difficult to answer the question of whether we pay too much or too little without taking into account what we receive in return.

Available in Spanish, English

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Monthly Economic Monitor Turkey

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Our monthly GDP indicator signals 6% growth in July with available preliminary indicators (32% info) and acceleration will gain pace resulting in at least 7% growth in 3Q even if GDP would not grow at all on quarterly basis. High trend in inflation (around 11% until December) will force the CBRT to stay tight a little longer despite the recent retreatment in USD/TL.

Available in English

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Inflation: Outlook worsens on core dynamics

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In August, consumer prices rose by 0.52%, higher than the consensus (0.1%) and even our estimate (0.3%). FX pass-through mostly on the recent appreciation of Euro, second round price effects and spill-overs from the narrowing output gap continued to be the factors behind. We expect the headline to stay close to 11% before it would fall to 9-9.5% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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China | Upbeat August PMIs point to a diminished tail risk for China’s economy

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Despite that July activity indicators slightly disappointed the market, China’s economy seemingly resumed its momentum in August. The official manufacturing PMI picked up to 51.7 from 51.4 of the previous month. Meanwhile, the Caixin China Manufacturing PMI surged to 51.6 from 51.1 in the previous month, beating the market consensus at 51.0.

Available in English

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The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in the Spanish economy

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Together with Greece, Spain was the European country with the highest unemployment increase during the Great Recession, despite a fall in GDP similar to that in other economies. Objective of this paper: to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the changes in the labour market since 2012.

Available in English

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China | Taming China’s shadow banking sector

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China’s shadow banking sector evolved rapidly over the past few years as regulators and financial institutions played a “Whack-A-Mole” game. It occurs in the context of China’s ongoing financial liberalization. Our empirical analysis indicates that the current financial deleveraging and regulation tightening will drag on growth but the impact should be limited.

Available in English

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China | Growth started to feel the pain of regulatory tightening

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After registering a stronger-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, Chinese economy started to show more signs of moderation in July, in line with our expectation. In particular, the authorities’ prudent monetary stance and stepped-up regulatory efforts to tackle a number of financial vulnerabilities seemingly have transmitted to the real economy.

Available in English

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China | Will the current RMB appreciation sustainable?

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The strong performance of the RMB exchange rate in recent months has surprised the market, behind which are a confluence of factors: (i) a steep deprecation of US dollar against other major currencies; (ii) the stronger-than-expected growth momentum in China; (iii) the effective implementation of a series of measures aiming to “promote capital inflows and limit outflows”.

Available in English

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Inflation: Core inflation implies risks on the upside

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Consumer prices rose by 0.15% in July, incrementally lower than the market consensus and our call (0.2%). Annual headline fell to 9.8% thanks to food and favorable base impact on tobacco. Looking ahead, we expect the headline inflation to breach 10% in August and stay at 10-11% levels till December before it would sizably fall towards 9% at the end of the year.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment boosted by solid economic recovery &clarified policy stance

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) improved remarkably in July, in particular led by both SOE and Shadow Banking components. Meanwhile, the components of the Exchange Rate and Housing Vulnerability Index also rebounded from the previous low levels, now staying within the neighbourhood of natural level.

Available in English