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Macroeconomic Analysis
Rafael Doménech
Head Economist
Led by Rafael Doménech, it comprehensively monitors and analyses the world economy’s economic activity, financial and raw material markets, capital flows, central banks and economic policies in the short and medium terms, coordinating the economic and financial forecasts with BBVA Research geographical units, to which it provides technical support. It also analyses the risks on the global economic scene, with particular attention to world trade, capital flows and interest rates, the digital economy, growth potential, productivity and demographics.
Personal Assistant | Ana Carregui

Latest Publications

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Eurozone | Steady growth supported by domestic demand, with signs of global headwinds

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After the deceleration in Q1, Eurozone GDP growth remains steady at +0.4% q/q thanks to resilient domestic demand. However, industrial output has weakened and leading indicators signal lower volume of export orders due to potential downside effects from increased protectionism. Inflation remains subdued. Risks are related to a cliff-edge Brexit and Italy's fiscal policy.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Solid global growth, but moderating amid heightened risks

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Global growth moderates, but remains in line with our GDP growth projections of 3.8% for 2018. Manufacturing activity has lost momentum and the impact from protectionism is starting to weigh on confidence, global trade and investment. Risks have also heightened over the summer due to political uncertainty and idiosyncratic vulnerabilities in emerging markets.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Recent easing measures helped to stabilize growth

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August economic indicators are announced today, suggesting the recent monetary and fiscal easing measures helped to stabilize economic growth. However, headwinds from domestic deleveraging and the escalating trade war will continue to weigh on growth. Monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth although the authorities remain vigilant on financial vulnerabilities.

Available in English

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Financial and fiscal shocks in the Great Recession and recovery of the Spanish economy

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We present a new Bayesian DSGE model with a banking sector for the Spanish economy, designed to evaluate structural reforms and to decompose the main macroeconomic aggregates into structural shocks. Our analysis highlights the fundamental role of financial conditions during the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery of the Spanish economy.

Available in English

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China | Growth slowdown continues

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July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.

Available in English

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Turkey Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Turkish financial assets remain under stress. The level and the duration of adjustment in the economy will depend on the policy reactions in the short term. Inflation reached alarming levels on last year´s loose policies, high inertia and second round effects. Both fiscal policy and monetary policy should complement each other to fight against inflation.

Available in English

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China | What is our expectation of Bilateral Investment Treaty with the EU?

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Our report analyzes the current situation of the China-EU bilateral investment and investigates the contents and difficulties of BIT negotiations. We expect that the BIT between China and the EU will be a game-changer weapon to help China to end its trade war with the US. Moreover, it will also catalyze structural reforms in China and boost its domestic growth.

Available in English

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Eurozone | A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks

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Confidence seem to level off pointing to a steady growth in 2H18. The 1Q18 slowdown in activity added to increasing uncertainty and higher commodity prices lead us to slash GDP growth forecasts to 2% and 1.7% in 2018-19. Higher oil prices and a weaker euro increase our headline inflation forecasts to 1.7% and 1.8% for this year and next. Trade war risks have intensified.

Available in Spanish, English

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China Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Q2 GDP moderated to 6.7% y/y amid the trade war and domestic deleveraging, down from the previous reading at 6.8% y/y and in line with the consensus. In particular, outturns of trade, industrial production and investment are below the market expectations and the previous readings. Headwinds are from domestic deleveraging initiatives and trade war with the US externally.

Available in English

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Global | Steady global growth, but risks intensify

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Global growth remains steady and our World GDP projections remain unchanged at 3.8% for both 2018-19, but with more divergence across areas. The US continues strong and China should decelerate as expected, but we have revised down growth for the Eurozone. Risks have increased and above all, protectionism could trim growth in the quarters ahead.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | What will be the country’s weapons in the trade war arsenal?

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After reviewing a number of methods which China could use in the escalating trade dispute with the US, we find that China’s policy options to counter the US tariff measures are actually limited. We expect that the authorities are unlikely to resort to methods of dumping US treasury bonds and guiding currency depreciation.

Available in English

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The current expansion of the Spanish Economy

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Since 2014, Spain has been growing at rates higher than those of most other European countries. During these years, Spain has recovered the competitiveness lost before the crisis. Inflation, unit labour costs and mark-ups have performed better than in the euro area as a whole, resulting in strong export growth. In 2017, exports were 35 per cent above the 2007 levels.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English

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Eurozone | Growth moderation has continued in Q2 and headline inflation has shot up

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The Eurozone could grow at about 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter after a similar figure in 1Q18, according to our BBVA-MICA model. This poses a downward bias to our 2.3% growth forecast for 2018. Inflation accelerated rapidly in May (1.9%) due to higher commodity prices and the euro depreciation, but the core component has progressed as expected to 1.3%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Deepening EMU to create opportunities and increase competitiveness and growth in the EU

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Despite the progress in improving the governance in the last years, the present architecture of EMU is not enough to deal properly with future crisis and face the challenges of the on-going digital revolution. A genuine monetary, fiscal, banking and economic union, with a non-constrained interaction between monetary and fiscal policies.

Available in English

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Global | Growth is still holding up despite increasing uncertainty

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Global growth remains on a strong footing at the beginning of 2Q18 despite the high levels of uncertainty, especially coming from trade news. Hard data and sentiment indicators remain solid but with growing differences across areas. Inflation surged in advanced economies on higher commodity prices while monetary policy normalization continues.

Available in Spanish, English