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Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
Lead Economist
Monitoring and analysis of the short- and medium-term development of the global economy and coordination of the forecasts of the main macroeconomic variables of the other geographical areas of BBVA Research. In coordination with the other macroeconomic areas, analysis of the most important factors determining short- and medium-term trends in the global economy, such as movements in the commodities and financial markets and changes in the economic policies of the major world economies. Macroeconomic analysis and preparation of forecasts for countries and regions not forming part of the Bank’s footprint or not specifically monitored by the regional units, with particular emphasis on the euro zone and the United Kingdom. The unit’s responsible is Miguel Jiménez.

Latest Publications

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Eurozone | More moderate growth with higher uncertainty

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Growth slowed in 1Q18 to 0.4% QoQ, more than expected. Hard data picked up somewhat in March, but sentiment data continues to be hesitant up to May. Our BBVA-MICA model projects growth to remain around 0.4% in 2Q18, and imply a downward bias on our 2.3% annual GDP growth projection.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth continues to be strong in 2Q18, with higher uncertainty

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Positive global momentum continued at the beginning of 2Q18, but in a context of greater uncertainty. Hard data indicators have been mixed with robust industrial production but more hesitant private consumption and global trade. Across large areas, US data has been positive while the EZ is stabilizing after a disappointing 1Q and China is decelerating very slowly

Available in Spanish, English

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Protectionism and global prospects

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Following a good 2017, the global economic outlook for this year and next remain positive, but there is also a long list of uncertainties, to which has recently, and forcefully, been added the threat of escalating protectionism.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Solid growth and broadly unchanged projections, with protectionist risks

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Confidence weakened in 1Q18 and hard data start to reflect this softer mood, although fundamentals remain robust. We keep our growth forecasts broadly unchanged, reaching 2.3% in 2018 and 1.8% in 2019. Inflation is expected to hover around 1.5% during 2018-19 but increasing gradually, driven by core components. Risks are tilted to increased protectionism.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Growth remains firm but risks intensify

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The strength of the world economy is being exposed to divergent forces that have intensified global risks. Fiscal stimulus approved in the US will likely spur growth in other areas, but protectionism poses a risk. We maintain our forecasts for global growth unchanged at 3.8% for 2018-19 with some adjustments across regions. To complement our analysis we add a brief note.

Available in Spanish, English

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Rainy days in Europe

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The debate on how to advance towards greater integration in Europe is intensifying with the approach of June, the self-imposed deadline for Europe’s leaders to come up with specific new reforms for the euro zone. The International Monetary Fund has recently joined the fray with a proposal for a stabilisation fund to cushion fluctuations in the economic cycle.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Strong momentum continues in 1Q18 driven by trade, despite some weaker data in DM

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Our BBVA-GAIN model projects the world GDP to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18, up from 0.9% in 4Q17. Global exports strengthened significantly in February, but industrial output and retail sales were modest in early 2018. Confidence remains at high level in 1Q18 so far, but showing some signs of moderation.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | The moderation of confidence continues

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a cruise speed growth in 1Q18 at 0.6/0.7% QoQ, supported by strong global trade and fixed investment. Despite solid fundamentals, we observed early signs of moderation as weak hard data in January adds to a cooled optimism in 1Q. Annual inflation eased again to 1.1% in February driven by food, while the core figure remained steady at 1.2%.

Available in Spanish, English

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Italy complicates the European panorama

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We already knew that the Italian elections would prolong the difficult 2017 European electoral cycle well into 2018. Last year’s results, for better or worse, meant a certain return to the political centre ground for all the countries involved, despite the fact that the most extreme political options have gained force.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Strong growth continues in 1Q18 but confidence seems to peak

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GDP growth moderated in 4Q17 but increased above potential for the third year in a row (+2.5% in 2017). Hard data improved by the end of last year but sentiment indicators moderated in February. Our MICA-BBVA model estimates an upturn in growth to around 0.6/0.7% QoQ for 1Q18. We continue to expect a gradual slowdown over the year to a still strong growth of 2.2% in 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Consumer confidence’s boom and bust in Latin America

Document Number 18/02

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We characterize consumer confidence cycle across LatAm using Markov-switching models. Our findings show that a core group of countries shares a statistical common ground for both confidence’s boom and bust cycle synchronisation. Notably, Argentina and Chile tend to lead consumer mood shifts, playing a leading role in propagating consumer confidence shocks throughout LatAm.

Available in English

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Global | Growth momentum continues, with some signs of exhaustion in confidence levels

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Global growth slows slightly in 4Q17, but remains robust. According to our GAIN-model, GDP is projected to grow 1% QoQ in 1Q18 after 0.9% in 4Q17. Strong momentum is shared by the three main areas, but confidence may have reached its peak in the Eurozone. Core inflation showed slight upward pressures in advanced economies.

Available in Spanish, English

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What is being debated as regards the reform of the euro?

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Whether to share risks or reduce them. That is the leitmotiv behind the current battle over the reform of the euro, which is supposed to lead to a new initiative by June.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates steady growth in 4Q17 (0.6/0.7% QoQ). We revised up our growth forecast to 2.2% in 2018 given strengthened domestic factors and better global outlook. Our inflation forecast increased to 1.5% due to higher oil prices but keeping a view of gradual pick-up in core prices. We still expect a gradual normalization of monetary policy during 2018-19.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Widespread upward revision of growth forecasts in 2018

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Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English