alert_servicealert_serviceENTER user_add user_add NEW USER

Forgot your password?


Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
x

Your space


Forgot your password?
x

Login to participate



Not registered yet? Register now
x
Make your search by entering the text:
Make your search for other criteria:
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
Lead Economist
Monitoring and analysis of the short- and medium-term development of the global economy and coordination of the forecasts of the main macroeconomic variables of the other geographical areas of BBVA Research. In coordination with the other macroeconomic areas, analysis of the most important factors determining short- and medium-term trends in the global economy, such as movements in the commodities and financial markets and changes in the economic policies of the major world economies. Macroeconomic analysis and preparation of forecasts for countries and regions not forming part of the Bank’s footprint or not specifically monitored by the regional units, with particular emphasis on the euro zone and the United Kingdom. The unit’s responsible is Miguel Jiménez.

Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

What is being debated as regards the reform of the euro?

By

Whether to share risks or reduce them. That is the leitmotiv behind the current battle over the reform of the euro, which is supposed to lead to a new initiative by June.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Higher growth forecasts for 2018-19

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates steady growth in 4Q17 (0.6/0.7% QoQ). We revised up our growth forecast to 2.2% in 2018 given strengthened domestic factors and better global outlook. Our inflation forecast increased to 1.5% due to higher oil prices but keeping a view of gradual pick-up in core prices. We still expect a gradual normalization of monetary policy during 2018-19.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Widespread upward revision of growth forecasts in 2018

By , , , ,

Growth stabilized at high levels and recent data suggest an uptick in activity at 4Q17. We revised upwards our growth forecasts for 2018 to 3.8% (+0.3pp), driven by an improved outlook and boost from tax reform in the US, a more gradual slowdown in China and the strengthening of domestic demand in the EZ. Central banks continue with a gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

A good year, with lots of doubts

By

The year 2017 started with plenty of uncertainty for the global economy. President Trump had just been elected, the emerging economies were not doing particularly well and Europe was facing a difficult electoral cycle, with the memory of the Brexit referendum still fresh.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | The sustainability of the global growth is more evident

By , , , ,

Official GDP figures have been revised up in 3Q to 1.02% QoQ, which implies a higher projection for 4Q17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1.04%). Further gains in confidence are not fully reflected in hard data. Global trade recovery continues, but at a slower pace. Global headline inflation accelerated in November driven by volatile components, but core pressures remained subdued.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | GDP projected at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q puts an upward bias to our forecasts

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates a GDP growth at 0.6%-0.7% in 4Q, signaling a steady pace or mild acceleration. Confidence increased further in December to record levels. Hard data were somewhat disappointing in October, but these not seem to affect the underlying trend. Inflation increased slightly to 1.5% but the core measure remained stable and subdued at 1.1% in November.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Improved outlook, still subdued inflation

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth pace in 4Q (0.6%/0.7% QoQ), so far supported by very strong confidence, with more mixed signals from hard data. Positive incoming data, mostly from Germany, pose an upward bias to our growth outlook. Both headline and core inflation eased and remain subdued in October, while our forecasts continue at 1.5% and 1.2% for 2017-18.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Global growth continues on a strong footing

By , , , ,

Global GDP growth slowed slightly in 3Q to 0.9% QoQ, but our BBVA-GAIN model suggests the solid global recovery continues in 4Q (1% QoQ). Confidence indicators improved further while industrial output and retail sales moderated in 3Q and global trade provided further signals of stabilization. Global inflation remained stable in October, accelerating in EM but slowing in DM

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Higher growth and more subdued inflation in 2017-18

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a steady growth in 3Q17 (0.6% QoQ). We revised upwards growth forecast to 2.2% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018 driven by strong data and domestic factors, although political uncertainty is high. Headline inflation forecasts are revised slightly down to 1.5% in 2017 and 1.2% in 2018. The ECB is likely to embark in a gradual normalization in early 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | A more synchronized recovery

By , , , ,

Recent data point to a broadly unchanged global scenario (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ in 2H17). Our new projections are unchanged for the US despite hurricanes and political uncertainty and indicate more positive outlooks for China and the Eurozone this year. Central banks continue their very gradual normalization process.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

May, Merkel, Macron

By

The last few days have been filled with important events for the future of Europe, with positive and negative news at the same time, and an outcome that will depend a lot on the negotiations in the coming months.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Growth expected to stabilize in 3Q on strong confidence

By , , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests a quarterly GDP growth figure of 0.6% in 3Q, but we cannot rule out a slight moderation given weaker hard data. Both industrial output and retails sales softened in July, while exports have also moderate during 3Q. In contrast, overall confidence data remain optimistic. Annual inflation accelerated in August to 1.5% with stable core measures.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

The global economy stabilizes and reaches a robust and synchronized growth pace

By , , , , ,

Global GDP accelerated slightly in 2Q17 (1% QoQ) while recent data suggest that it could maintain its dynamism in 2H17 (BBVA-GAIN: 1%). Both industrial output and exports have disappointed at the beginning of 3Q, but forward-looking indicators suggest a still positive outlook. All in all, the global economy shows improved synchronization across major blocks.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Upward revision of GDP with a broad-based recovery

By , , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Positive outlook, with projections revised across areas

By , , , , ,

Robust and steady global growth in 2Q (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) with some rebalancing among the major areas. Confidence and global trade growth seem to stabilize at high levels, supporting the ongoing recovery of the industrial sector. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in the Eurozone and China and downwards in US. Risks remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English