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Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
Lead Economist
Monitoring and analysis of the short- and medium-term development of the global economy and coordination of the forecasts of the main macroeconomic variables of the other geographical areas of BBVA Research. In coordination with the other macroeconomic areas, analysis of the most important factors determining short- and medium-term trends in the global economy, such as movements in the commodities and financial markets and changes in the economic policies of the major world economies. Macroeconomic analysis and preparation of forecasts for countries and regions not forming part of the Bank’s footprint or not specifically monitored by the regional units, with particular emphasis on the euro zone and the United Kingdom. The unit’s responsible is Miguel Jiménez.

Latest Publications

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Eurozone | Upward revision of GDP with a broad-based recovery

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Our MICA-BBVA model suggests that GDP growth could have improved again in 2Q (0.7% QoQ) as strong confidence has been met by better hard data. We have revised upwards GDP forecast for 2017 (by 0.3pp to 2.0%), though we continue to expect some moderation for 2018 (1.7%). The ECB is expected to embark in a gradual normalization of monetary policy. Political risk has eased.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Positive outlook, with projections revised across areas

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Robust and steady global growth in 2Q (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) with some rebalancing among the major areas. Confidence and global trade growth seem to stabilize at high levels, supporting the ongoing recovery of the industrial sector. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in the Eurozone and China and downwards in US. Risks remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Growth momentum stabilizes in 2Q at high levels

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GDP growth was revised up to 0.6% QoQ (+0.1pp) in Q1, while improving industrial production along with very strong confidence suggest that the growth momentum will remain steady in Q2 (MICA-BBVA: 0.6%). Recently, foreign trade and retail sales have moderated slightly. Headline and core inflation declined in May, reversing the Easter calendar effect and remain subdued.

Available in Spanish, English

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What kind of Brexit can now be expected?

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A few weeks ago the majority of analysts were saying that Theresa May’s real motive in calling early elections in the UK was to strengthen her majority against the hardest wing of her party. This would have enabled her to accept “softer” conditions in a possible agreement on Brexit.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | The recovery shows signs of stabilisation

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Global GDP growth continues to improve in Q2 (BBVA-GAIN: 1% QoQ) but with signs of stabilization. Confidence data remain very strong, but are levelling off and the upward trend in exports and industrial output has moderated at the beginning of Q2. Moreover, the latest data suggest that positive signs are shifting from the US and China to Europe and other emerging economies

Available in Spanish, English

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G7, the weight of words

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The periodic meetings of the group of most developed nations took shape in the mid 1970s as a forum for discussing economic issues of global importance. At that time they dealt with major events such as the collapse of the exchange rate system based on the convertibility of gold and the dollar, or the Middle East oil embargo.

Available in Spanish, English

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Greece: three-way gridlock

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Grecia se encuentra en la segunda revisión de su tercer programa de rescate, que debería llevar al desembolso de un nuevo tramo de la ayuda financiera que servirá, fundamentalmente, para pagar vencimientos de deuda de algo más de 7.000 millones de euros en julio.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | The outlook remains positive as political risks ease

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GDP grew 0.5% QoQ in 1Q while soft data suggests higher momentum in 2Q (BBVAe: 0.6% QoQ) and foreign trade is strong. But industrial output and retail sales decelerated in 1Q. Inflation pressures are still distant as wages growth remains subdued. Despite the more upbeat outlook and the ease of political uncertainty, risks to short-term growth remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global growth is still gaining momentum in 2Q17, but there are some signs of stabilisation

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Global growth accelerated in 1Q to 0.9% QoQ and 2Q data so far suggest further global momentum (1% QoQ). Confidence data remain very positive, especially for developed economies, while hard data point to higher investment. Moreover, the exports recovery remains on track, partly explained by upward trend in investment in recent quarters.

Available in Spanish, English

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Macron: now comes the hard part

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With the French presidential elections over, at least one component of the uncertainty facing Europe has been eliminated, given the pronounced anti-EU bias of some of the candidates in contention. Many other unknowns are popping up - enough to make us think that for president Emmanuel Macron getting to where he is was the easiest part and that the real challenges lie ahead

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Positive dynamics lead to an upward revision in projections

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Global GDP growth maintains its positive trend in 1H17 as our BBVA-GAIN indicator suggests (close to 1% QoQ). Confidence and global trade continue to point a further expansion, but signals given by hard data are not yet clear. New projections for 2017-18 are revised upwards in China, more moderately in EZ, with no changes in the US.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | A more upbeat outlook, but still surrounded by (mostly political) risks

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Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth at 0.5% QoQ in 1Q as improving confidence continued at earlier 2017. Hard data begin to moderate, though foreign trade clearly recovers. Growth forecasts for 2017-18 are revised slightly upwards to 1.7% (+0.1pp) in both years, fostered by higher growth in global demand although risks, mostly political, remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

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Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

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After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Available in Spanish, English

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Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

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Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.

Available in Spanish, English

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White Paper on the future of Europe

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The European Commission presented its White Paper on the future of Europe. It draws five different scenarios: business as usual, retreat to a pure single market, a variable geometry union, a more efficient union, and a deeper union. The paper clarifies the debate, draws clear pathways to choose, and introduces the debate on what exactly the EU27 should or should not do.

Available in English