alert_serviceYour space user_add New user

Forgot your password?
Stay logged in to leave
Publication date
From
To
Global Macroeconomic Scenarios
Miguel Jiménez
Lead Economist
Monitoring and analysis of the short- and medium-term development of the global economy and coordination of the forecasts of the main macroeconomic variables of the other geographical areas of BBVA Research. In coordination with the other macroeconomic areas, analysis of the most important factors determining short- and medium-term trends in the global economy, such as movements in the commodities and financial markets and changes in the economic policies of the major world economies. Macroeconomic analysis and preparation of forecasts for countries and regions not forming part of the Bank’s footprint or not specifically monitored by the regional units, with particular emphasis on the euro zone and the United Kingdom. The unit’s responsible is Miguel Jiménez.

Latest Publications

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Robust growth in early 2017 and still low core inflation

By , , , ,

After growing at 0.4% in 4Q16, our MICA-BBVA model continues to estimate a quarterly GDP growth in the eurozone of 0.5% QoQ in 1Q17 and puts a slight upward bias to our projection of 1.6% for this year. Confidence indicators reflect this mood better than activity data. Finally, despite the 2.0% YoY headline inflation in February, core measures remain subdued at 0.9% YoY.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Global growth points to 0.9%-1% in early 2017

By , , , ,

Global GDP growth continues accelerating in Q1, though our BBVA-GAIN indicator of global growth is slightly lower than a month ago (Q4: 0.85%; Q1: 0.93%). Confidence indicators continue to be very strong and global trade gives signals of further expansion, but industrial production and especially retail sales are more moderate in early year.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

White Paper on the future of Europe

By , ,

The European Commission presented its White Paper on the future of Europe. It draws five different scenarios: business as usual, retreat to a pure single market, a variable geometry union, a more efficient union, and a deeper union. The paper clarifies the debate, draws clear pathways to choose, and introduces the debate on what exactly the EU27 should or should not do.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

The Greek epic

By

We all know that tragedies are Greek, sagas Scandinavian and comic operas originally Italian, and that we use these expressions to describe political or economic reality when it overtakes us, but in the case of Greece we may have to use another word of Greek origin. The twists and turns of its debt crisis are reminiscent of those of a Homeric epic.

Geographies:Europe
Topics:Opinion

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | A slight upward revision to our GDP growth projections

By , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to reach 0.5% QoQ in 1Q (2H16: 0.4%) as improving confidence at the start of 2017 suggest that the recovery could be gaining momentum in 1Q17. We have revised slightly upward our growth projections to 1.6% this year and next, though political risks persist.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | More growth, but with old and new risks across regions

By , , , ,

Global growth strengthened in 2H16 (+0.9% QoQ) and it could be gathering pace in 1Q17 (+1.0% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and improving global trade. New quarterly projections remain broadly unchanged, with differences across regions, while risks are tilted to the downside and are mostly of a political nature.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Sclerotic no more

By

Annualised growth of 2% last quarter, levels of confidence close to all-time highs, industrial production and exports on the rise, consumer indicators strong, unemployment rate falling for more than three years…

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Target2 imbalances are rising, should we worry?

By ,

Target2 imbalances are reaching 2012 levels, linked to the ECB APP and not to the stress in financial markets. However, this imbalance poses some questions on how the APP is working and on EZ fragmentation.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global Watch | Improving activity, but higher uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth has stepped up further in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-model suggests, driven mostly by industrial activity and stronger confidence along with improving global trade and higher new orders. Nonetheless, risks are tilted to the downside and are linked to politics and protectionism, but also derive from China’s imbalances.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Some changes for the better

By , , , , ,

We continue to see resilience to the various potentially disturbing political events in 2H16. So far, confidence data allow us to be slightly more optimistic. Still more, the recovery of exports and the strength of consumption at the end of 2016 show that positive underlying signs are taking root. Our model suggests GDP to have gained momentum to 0.5%/0.6% QoQ in 4Q16.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Forecasts in the post-truth era

By

The economic confidence indicators have clearly improved in the major regions in the last quarter of 2016, especially in the manufacturing sector, world trade seems to be recovering after its lacklustre start to the year, and consumption continues to be relatively strong.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Soft data point at growth acceleration in Q4, though downward risks prevail

By , , , , ,

Our MICA-BBVA model estimates growth to increase to 0.4/0.5% QoQ in 4Q (3Q: 0.3%). Improving confidence proved the EZ resilience after political events since the summer, while data so far suggest a slightly more optimistic outlook for coming months supported by export orders and the depreciation of the euro. However, risks (mostly political) remain tilted to the downside.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Global | Broadly unchanged global outlook after Trump´s victory, with uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth is expected to gain further momentum in 4Q16 (+0.9% QoQ), as our GAIN-BBVA model suggests, in a context of a better performance of developed countries than emerging economies. Nonetheless, short-term risks continued to be tilted to the downside and mostly political, but also derived from China’s imbalances.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

European Urbanization Trends

By , , ,

The urbanization process in Europe took place rapidly since 1950, but in the 90s it moderated its pace and it will likely be slower during the next ten years. European cities have become in important hubs for education, innovation and knowledge-based economies. Digitalization has been fundamental to increase competitiveness.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | Slight improvement amid high uncertainty

By , , , , ,

Global growth accelerated to 0.8% QoQ in 3Q driven by the rebound in the US and the resilience in both EZ and Asia, while the recession in Latam eased. Incoming data points to a strengthening recovery in emerging Asia, mainly supported by domestic demand but also by improving trade while the industrial recovery in developed markets gathers momentum.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Eurozone | Steady recovery, resilient to political uncertainty

By , , , , ,

The moderate pace of economic growth continued in the eurozone in 3Q16 (+0.3% QoQ), in a context of improved external demand and resilience after the uncertainty experienced by mid-year. We maintain our GDP growth projection for the eurozone at 1.6% and 1.5% in 2016 and 2017, respectively.

Available in Spanish, English

Catalog Icon

Flows & Assets Report: Flows to EM will continue to grow but at a lower pace. 3Q2016

By , , ,

Strong recovery of capital inflows to EM in 3Q for the second quarter in a row driven by the “search of yield” in global portfolios (reallocation process). Although monetary conditions will remain supportive, we expect a slowdown of inflows in next quarters as financial volatility is expected to rebound somewhat from very low levels

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | Very gradual improvement in activity

By , , , ,

Downward pressures on global growth seem to have diminished in Q3, but incoming data so far continue to be volatile. Domestic spending is the main driver of EM’s recovery while industrial production seems to gain momentum in DM. Significant improvement in exports in August across the board, but September figures for Asia increased concerns on trade recovery.

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | GDP growth stuck at 3.1% in Q2 amid hopeful confidence and lingering uncertainty

By ,

Minor changes in July-16 in terms of World GDP growth according to BBVA Research GAIN estimates, which remain anchored at 0.8% QoQ (3.1% SAAR) in 2Q16 . The lack of relevant revisions of World GDP data and the balance between slightly better confidence indicators vs. worsening financial volatility are the factors behind the slight changes in GDP growth forecasts for 2Q16

Available in English

Catalog Icon

Global | World GDP growth steady at 3.1% YoY amidst increasing uncertainty

By

Another month has gone by and yet the global economy is expected to remain trapped at trend-levels (2011-2015) at both Q2 and Q3 (0.78% QoQ and 0.76% QoQ respectively). Whereas these trend dynamics are far from being ominous, recent confidence data (still not exposed by Brexit outcome) prove unable to lift global growth forecasts beyond its trend levels.

Available in English