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Global Modelling & Long Term Analysis
Julián Cubero
Lead Economist
Global Modelling and Long Term Analysis, in collaboration with the other Macroeconomic Analysis units and the national geographical units, under the leadership of Julián Cubero, is dedicated to: analysis of opportunities and risks on the global economic scene from a medium- and long-term perspective, with particular attention to world trade, capital flows and interest rates, the digital economy, potential growth, productivity and demographics; maintaining and improving quantitative analysis tools, especially those with a global, transversal reach to different geographical areas where BBVA operates and to whose units it provides technical support.

Latest Publications

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The IMF Summit and not losing at cards

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Next week we will know the International Monetary Fund's diagnosis of the state of the economy at its weekly meeting with the World Bank, which also brings together governors from central banks, finance ministers and representatives from the financial sector and wider civil society from around the world.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Third Quarter 2017

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Financial markets’ risk-on mood tightens sovereign spreads beyond fundamentals, while financial disequilibria turn on some warning signals in some Advanced Economies

Available in Spanish, English

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The enemies of trade

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Globalisation, which is simply a process which favours greater exchange by overcoming geographical distances and administrative and cultural obstacles, is being called into question.

Available in Spanish, English

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G7, the weight of words

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The periodic meetings of the group of most developed nations took shape in the mid 1970s as a forum for discussing economic issues of global importance. At that time they dealt with major events such as the collapse of the exchange rate system based on the convertibility of gold and the dollar, or the Middle East oil embargo.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2017

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Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and sovereign markets spreads have been decreasing for over a year, reaching lows not seen since the spring of 2014 or 2007. Most of the large sovereign spread’s increases seen during the turmoil in 2015 and 2016 in EMs has vanished

Available in English

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Trade is global, not a country-by-country balancing act

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The abandonment of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and statements by both the president and the new US trade authorities seem to indicate that the US is turning towards bilateralism and is likely to consider the balance of trade as the variable on which to base its policies.

Available in Spanish, English

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Central Bank Digital Currencies: assessing implementation possibilities and impacts

Document Number 17/04

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Following advances in the distributed ledger technology, central banks are assessing the issuance of digital currency. There's a range of possible schemes to adopt depending on which features of cash to hold: universality, anonymity and non-yield bearing. We analyze opportunities and challenges of 4 key schemes, that support a strategy of gradual testing and implementation

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. First Quarter 2017

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Yet another quarter in which Financial Tensions, Global Risk Aversion (GRA) and Sovereign CDS have all been easing significantly across the board. The overall decrease in CDS spreads reduced downgrade pressures and increased upgrade ones for most countries. The decline in downgrade pressure was specially noticeable in LatAm , but it was also felt in the rest of EMs.

Available in Spanish, English

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Stranger Things

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2016 has been a year of surprises. First came the surprise result of the UK referendum in favour of leaving the EU, to be followed a few months later by the US presidential elections. Both events mark the end of the status quo.

Available in Spanish, English

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Country Risk Report. Fourth Quarter 2016

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Turkey was downgraded by S&P and Moody’s. Hungary and Korea were upgraded by S&P. Financial tensions, Global Risk Aversion and sovereign CDS have all been trending downwards since the turmoil at the beginning of the year. China still faces the largest downgrade pressure from the markets, that has significantly risen for Portugal.

Available in Spanish, English