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Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Chief Economist
The unit carries out comprehensive monitoring of the country’s economy and in-depth analyses of sectoral and regional aspects, with particular emphasis on the banking, real estate, automotive and infrastructure sectors and analysis of pensions, migration and financial regulation. It also takes care of monitoring, analyses and forecasts of macro aspects, both short-term and structural, of the Mexican economy, activity and demand variables, prices and financial magnitudes such as interest and exchange rates, paying particular attention to public policies and their assessment. It is under the leadership of Carlos Serrano.
Personal Assistant | Ericka Rodríguez

Latest Publications

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. October 2017

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Update of the risk assessment by the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction companies’ activity fell 2.7% in July 2017. Losses for Emerging Market assets on investor expectations factoring in an additional hike by the Fed towards year end

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Both before and afterwards, NAFTA is advantageous for all three economies

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In the past few days the protectionist rhetoric wielded by several members of the US government, starting with president Donald Trump himself, has begun to be ratcheted up again. Once again the spurious argument has been peddled that NAFTA has been detrimental to the US economy and that this is borne out by the fact that the US is running a trade deficit with Mexico

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Bank deposits: slight recovery driven by demand deposits

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In July 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank funding (demand + term) was 11.0%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous month, but 1.4 percentage points lower than the rate registered in July 2016

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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NAFTA: beneficial for all three countries

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A few days ago, we saw the conclusion of the third round – out of the seven initially agreed - of the renegotiation process of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), a positive agreement for Mexico, the United States and Canada that, since it was signed in 1994, has led to trade between these countries almost quadrupling.

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Geographies:Global

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Remittances rise 8.8% in August, in line with expectations

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In August 2017, Mexico received US$2,469.3 million in family remittances. This is the highest figure ever in the receipt of remittances for a month of August. Due to the appreciation of the peso observed this year compared to 2016, in real terms remittances contracted by 1.7%. Thus, remittances have declined in real terms for three consecutive months

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | The credit to the private sector raises driven by corporate credit

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In August 2017, the balance of current credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 13.2% (6.2% real), 0.6 percentage points higher than the rate observed in the previous month (12.6%), but 2.8 percentage points below that registered in August 2016 (16.1%)

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Earthquakes in Mexico: we are not changing our 2017 growth forecast

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Besides the economic losses caused by this natural disaster, the palpable effects are limited and only relevant to very specific regions and do not represent a major change in the economic growth rates at a national level. The earthquakes did not damage the productive capacity of the economy, as productive infrastructure was largely unaffected

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Fiscal Budget 2018: Responsible and based on realistic assumptions

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On September 8th, the SHCP submitted the fiscal budget for 2018 to Congress. There are three points worth highlighting: i) it is positive that it continues along the path towards fiscal consolidation; (ii) it is designed around realistic economic assumptions; and (iii) if approved, it will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue its downward trajectory in 2018

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Mexican Financial System. September 2017

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Housing prices rise 6.88% in the second half of 2017. The Bank of Mexico announces a slow-down in the economy’s financing sources and uses. The rate of growth of the personal loan portfolio continues to slow. Credit card financing consolidated its recovery in 2016

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | 2018 Fiscal Program: proposal of fiscal consolidation effort of 0.5% of GDP

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The program is based on realistic economic assumptions. The continuation of fiscal consolidation is positive. The budget will mean that debt as a percentage of GDP will continue to decline in 2018

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Is it the end of DACA for 800,000 Dreamers? 630,000 are Mexicans

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The DHS will not be accepting new DACA applications and after 5 October there will be no further renewals. The underway initial and renewal requests will continue to be processed and will not be affected, and the current DACA benefits and work permits will be maintained until their expiration, which could be in up to 24 months

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Bank deposits: less dynamism due to lower growth in its term segment

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In June 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 10.8%, 0.8 percentage points lower than the previous month and 3.6 percentage points lower than the same month of the previous year

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Income in Mexico and evolution of poverty: Notes on the new ENIGH 2016

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Appropriate the development of the Statistical Model to ensure historical comparability. The new ENIGH shows a decline in both poverty and extreme poverty compared to the year 2014; however, Mexico still faces important challenges in this area, since 43.6% and 7.6% of the population are in poverty and extreme poverty respectively.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Remittances increase by 9.4% in July, but decrease in real terms

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We estimate that for the second half of 2017, the receipt of remittances will continue to grow in dollars albeit at a more moderate pace than in the first half-year, but the actual amounts in pesos to reach households in Mexico will be lower in comparison to the previous year due mainly to the appreciation of the peso

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English