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Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Chief Economist
The unit carries out comprehensive monitoring of the country’s economy and in-depth analyses of sectoral and regional aspects, with particular emphasis on the banking, real estate, automotive and infrastructure sectors and analysis of pensions, migration and financial regulation. It also takes care of monitoring, analyses and forecasts of macro aspects, both short-term and structural, of the Mexican economy, activity and demand variables, prices and financial magnitudes such as interest and exchange rates, paying particular attention to public policies and their assessment. It is under the leadership of Carlos Serrano.
Personal Assistant | Ericka Rodríguez

Latest Publications

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Mexico | Inflation: 1st January CPI FoF forecast

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We anticipate that headline inflation will show a large drop in the first half of January, while core inflation is likely to resume its downward trend following the uptick seen over the last two months.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Demand deposits moderate traditional bank deposit growth

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In November 2017 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 11.6% (4.6% real), 1.6 percentage points lower than that observed the previous month and 3.2 percentage points below the nominal rate registered in November 2016.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | The collapse of NAFTA will increase the risks to world trade

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This week sees the start of the sixth round of renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement of NAFTA in Canada. According to members of the Mexican negotiating team, previous rounds have seen significant progress in a number of areas.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. January 2018

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Banxico has updated its report on housing loan indicators. Payroll credit slows despite improvement in its granting conditions. Alert from the authorities about participation in “Initial Coin Offerings” schemes (ICO). The Financial System Stability Council (CESF) updates its balance of risks.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Economic panorama 2018: resilience in the midst of uncertainty

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The Mexican economy in 2018 will traverse a context of major sources of uncertainty, among which the renegotiations of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the presidential elections stand out.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Credit to the private sector moderates its dynamism

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In November 2017 the balance of the total outstanding credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 10.6% (3.7% real), 1.9 percentage points below the rate observed the previous month (12.5%) and 6.4 percentage points below that registered in November 2016 (17.0%).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Remittances fall 4.7% in November, but will end the year at a record high

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2017 has been a year of ups and downs for remittances: from January to November there were 3 months with falls and 8 with increases. This is partly due to Mexican immigrants' fear of possible deportation or restrictions on remittances and changes in US trade (NAFTA) and tax policies since Trump’s election victory.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Bank deposits is supported by the dynamism of its two components

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In October 2017, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 13.2%, 2.0 percentage points higher than that observed the previous month and 0.6 percentage points higher than the rate recorded in October 2016.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. December 2017

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The total credit balance through cards slows its momentum during 2017. Car loans accelerated their momentum, offering better conditions as regards amounts and terms. The International Monetary Fund renews Mexico’s Flexible Credit Line. The Mexican financial system has the capacity to face adverse events. New technologies and financial inclusion in Latin America.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Credit to the private sector:slight recovery driven by the portfolio of companies

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In October 2017, the balance of the current credit granted by commercial banks to the private sector grew at a nominal annual rate of 12.5% (5.8% real), 0.3 percentage points higher than the rate observed the previous month (12.3%) but 2.9 percentage points below that registered in October 2016 (15.4%)

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico |A "hawkish hold" with risks ahead in an unusual context, the best strategy for now

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Monetary Policy should not react to temporary supply shocks. In a close call (70-30 odds) we expect Banxico to hold rates steady at next week’s policy meeting. A hawkish pause is enough for the time being

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The economy contracted in the third quarter of the year. The preliminary QoQ growth rate, annualised, was negative at 0.8%

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Remittances reach historic high of US$2,642.7 million

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Remittances in October 2017 mark a new all-time high, surpassing the previous record of $2,637.7 million established in October 2008. The depreciation of the peso against the dollar of more than 5% in October compared to September, due to the uncertainty generated by the NAFTA renegotiations, might explain this growth in remittances.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Inflation, on a downward course for 2018

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The most recent inflation figure, corresponding to the first half of November, surprised on the upside. After falling in September and October, headline inflation showed an upturn from 6.4% to 6.6%. This increases the likelihood that the Banco de México will increase its monetary policy rate as a preventive measure

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Lower production from local refineries contributed to widening the trade deficit

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The trade balance posted a USD 2.1 billion deficit in October, a much higher number than the consensus expectation of USD 0.9 billion. This trade deficit is mostly explained by the oil trade deficit, which amounted to USD 1.8 billion

Units:
Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English