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Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Chief Economist
The unit carries out comprehensive monitoring of the country’s economy and in-depth analyses of sectoral and regional aspects, with particular emphasis on the banking, real estate, automotive and infrastructure sectors and analysis of pensions, migration and financial regulation. It also takes care of monitoring, analyses and forecasts of macro aspects, both short-term and structural, of the Mexican economy, activity and demand variables, prices and financial magnitudes such as interest and exchange rates, paying particular attention to public policies and their assessment. It is under the leadership of Carlos Serrano.
Personal Assistant | Ericka Rodríguez

Latest Publications

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Mexico |Main source of credit growth to private sector continues to be credit to companies

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In August 2018, the nominal annual growth rate of the balance of the current credit portfolio granted by commercial banks to the private sector was 11.2% (6.0% real). This rate was lower than the previous month (11.4%) and the same month of 2017 (13.3%).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | USMCA: uncertainty reduced, but not removed

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We now know the content of the new North American free trade agreement, to be known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. The three countries’ negotiating teams announced details on Sunday, just minutes before the deadline for the Trump administration to submit it to Congress.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Remittances grow 9.1% in August completing 29 consecutive months of growth

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The dynamics of remittances are explained firstly by the number of transactions recorded, which increased by 5.0%, and secondly by the 3.8% increase in the average amount of remittances. In real terms, remittances grew by 9.9%, mainly due to the exchange rate effect.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | We think Banxico will remain on hold for the rest of the year

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Stable MXN, well-behaved core inflation and well-anchored mid and long-term inflation expectations mean no more preemptive hikes.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Dynamism of term deposits boosts growth in traditional bank deposits

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In July 2018, the nominal annual growth rate of traditional deposits (demand + term) of commercial banks was 10% (4.9% real). The growth rate in July was lower than in the previous month (11.8%) and was also lower than the growth rate in the same month of 2017 (10.5%).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Mexico | Trade agreement with the United States: investment framework to be maintained

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On 27 August, Mexico and the US announced that they had reached an understanding allowing them to sign a trade agreement to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Although we are still awaiting the final text in order to offer our full assessment, on the basis of the announcement made by the negotiating teams, we can give a preliminary analysis.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico-US Trade Agreement: Uncertainty diminishes

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At the end of August Mexico and the US announced a preliminary agreement intended to replace the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) signed in 1994. The most significant changes in the agreement announced are centred on the automotive sector. And this is hardly surprising, given that the sector accounts for the entire trade deficit that the US runs with Mexico.

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. September 2018

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Reduced absorption of financial resources by the public sector has contributed to relieving pressure on markets for funds available for lending in Mexico. The mortgage lending market in the next few years. Limited contagion from the Turkish crisis. CNBV publishes secondary regulations for the FinTech Law.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Credit to companies continues to boost bank financing to the private sector

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In July 2018, the balance of the current loan portfolio granted by commercial banks to the private sector registered a nominal annual growth rate of 11.4% (6.3% real). This growth was lower than the previous month (12.8%) and that of the same month of 2017 (12.6%).

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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New US - Mexico trade agreement significantly reduces uncertainty

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Not a bad deal considering the circumstances. With the information available, we think it is a less favourable agreement than NAFTA itself, but better than the alternative. Mexico will remain competitive in the production and export of vehicles. On the positive side, the energy sector is part of the agreement; this reduces the chances of a rejection of the energy reform.

Units:
Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Yearbook of migration and remittances 2018

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The yearbook aims on the one hand, to introduce readers to the most significant current issues around migration in Mexico and the world at large; and on the other hand, to act as a source for consulting reliable statistical information for more specialized analyses.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | New Banxico measurement pushes remittances up by 5% in 2017 & 2018,+10.3% in July

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In July 2,866.5 million dollars (md) of remittances entered Mexico, growing at an annual rate of +10.3%, an amount very close to that forecast by BBVA Research (2,876 md) and that of market consensus (2,900 md). With this figure, remittances have seen 28 consecutive months of growth since April 2016, during which average growth rates of 11.0% were reported.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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US-Mexico trade agreement: the best one that was possible under the current circumstances

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The presidents of Mexico and the US have announced a preliminary bilateral commercial agreement. If congresses in each country approve it, this accord will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that has been in place since 1994.

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Geographies:USA Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Demand deposits maintain the dynamism of traditional bank deposits

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In June 2018 the nominal annual growth rate of traditional bank deposits (demand + term) was 11.8% (6.9% real), higher than that observed in May (11.3%), and 1.7 percentage points above the nominal rate registered in March 2017.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish

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Might Turkey affect Mexico?

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In the past few weeks Turkey has been through bouts of significant financial turbulence. The Turkish lira has depreciated by 22% in August and by about 60% so far this year. An event of this nature in an emerging economy usually has effects on other emerging economies.

Units:
Geographies:Mexico Turkey

Available in Spanish, English