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Mexico
Carlos Serrano
Chief Economist
The unit carries out comprehensive monitoring of the country’s economy and in-depth analyses of sectoral and regional aspects, with particular emphasis on the banking, real estate, automotive and infrastructure sectors and analysis of pensions, migration and financial regulation. It also takes care of monitoring, analyses and forecasts of macro aspects, both short-term and structural, of the Mexican economy, activity and demand variables, prices and financial magnitudes such as interest and exchange rates, paying particular attention to public policies and their assessment. It is under the leadership of Carlos Serrano.
Personal Assistant | Ericka Rodríguez

Latest Publications

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Mexico | The fiscal challenges facing the new administration

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The next government will be faced with major challenges on the fiscal front. First it has to be said that the fact that the future prime minister and his chosen finance minister made it clear in their first messages that they are going to propose fiscal years resulting in primary fiscal surpluses.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly remittances exceed US$3 billion for the first time ever

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May saw US$3,097.7 million in remittances, representing a YoY increase of 19.8%, the biggest increase seen in the past 18 months. The Mother’s Day effect, the favourable economic conditions in the US (unemployment at 3.8%) and the appreciation of the dollar against the peso seen in May are the three factors explaining this all-time record figure for remittances.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. June 2018

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Domestic sources of financing supported the non-financial private sector. Housing prices rose by 8.7% in the first quarter of 2018. The prospect of a long drawn-out renegotiation of NAFTA leads to negative differentiation of domestic assets. Incorporation of new rating agencies. Banco de México: consultation on subordinated bonds.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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We expect Banxico to hike the policy rate

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A deterioration of inflation risks tips the balance towards a hike.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | New all-time record for remittances in April: US$2,716.9 million

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Remittances grew by 17.9% YoY, reaching a new all-time high of US$2,716.9 million, the biggest monthly amount ever received in Mexico.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico faced with global financial volatility

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The global economy is going through a spell of rising interest rates in the USA, with the dollar strengthening and international oil prices rising. In the past, this combination of events has led to periods of financial turbulence and capital outflows from emerging markets, which Mexico has not been able to avoid.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico is going to need fiscal legislation that is actually complied with

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The country has made great advances in the last twenty or so years in designing an institutional framework that contributes towards having well-ordered public finances. In 2006 the Federal Budget and Fiscal Responsibility Act was passed.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. May 2018

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The World Bank updated the “Global Financial Inclusion” (Global Findex) database. Housing construction projects could recover in the first half of 2018. Domestic assets in step with NAFTA negotiations. Adjustments regarding external auditing.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Banco de México moves towards greater transparency

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The central bank recently announced a number of changes in its communication policy which in my opinion constitute a very significant step forward in terms of transparency.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Remittances up 4% in March, making four months in a row of growth

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The low level of unemployment and the growth outlook in the US allowed remittances to continue to increase. In real terms, remittances continue to decline due to the combined effect of the CPI and the relative stability of the exchange rate. Colima (21.8%) and Baja California Sur (17.3%) were the states with the biggest increases in remittances.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Migration

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monetary Aggregates and Domestic Financial Assets

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Banco de México (Mexico’s central bank, Banxico), published its Monetary Aggregates (MAs) based on the 2018 methodology. These new indicators replace those that the central bank published on a monthly basis until December 2017, based on the 199 methodology.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. April 2018

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Annual report of the Financial System Stability Council (CESF). The value of construction company activity fell by 3.5% in 2017. The markets steadied after the temporary upturn in volatility. Adjustments to the methodology for determining the degree of systemic importance of multiple purpose banking institutions.

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Geographies:Mexico
Topics:Banks

Available in Spanish, English

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Mexico | Exchange rate and uncertainty

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There are two major sources of uncertainty regarding the Mexican economy: the outcome of the NAFTA negotiations, and the doubts that always surround presidential elections. How are these factors affecting the peso?

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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Banxico will most likely keep rates unchanged and should strike a more dovish tone

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We expect Banxico to hold rates steady (at 7.50%) next Thursday. As we expected, disinflation pressures are taking hold and inflation is set to fall further; the inflation outlook improvement warrants a more dovish tone. We think Banxico is likely to signal a pause in the near-term. We expect Banxico to begin an easing cycle in October.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English

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Mexico | Disinflation pressures are taking hold

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Inflation fell sharply in the first three months of the year as we expected. Inflation set to fall further; Banxico will most likely keep rates unchanged on Thursday.

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Geographies:Mexico

Available in English