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South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
Chief Economist
The South America unit consolidates BBVA Research’s analyses of the region’s economies, stressing transversal, structural analysis. It is formed by the BBVA Research teams on Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Venezuela as well as the transversal analysis team in Madrid. It is led by Juan Ruiz.

Latest Publications

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Urbanisation, digitisation and growth in Latin America

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It is little known that Latin America is a region which is as urban as developed economies and much more so than other emerging regions. How can the region take advantage of the opportunities generated by its high level of urbanisation?

Available in Spanish, English

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Growth in Latin America: the glass half full

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Latin America will grow this year. This is good news for the region following two consecutive years of contraction, 2015 and 2016, which followed three of slowdown due to the fall in commodity prices. BBVA Research expects the region as a whole to grow by 0.8% this year and 1.7% in 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Watch: Urbanization

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Urbanization took place earlier and at faster pace than in other emerging markets in Latam and is now at advanced economies’ levels. However, in spite of displaying high urbanization rates, Latin America show relatively low levels of income, capital, labor and productivity. The region should try to leverage on their high urbanization levels to boost digitization.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Growth in Latin America will increase to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. The recovery after the -1.2% contraction in 2016 will be helped by the coming out of the recession by two of the main regional economies (Brazil and Argentina), as in most other countries there will be a growth slowdown in 2017 compared to 2016, hobbled by external shocks and weak domestic demand.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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We revised down our GDP forecasts to 0.6% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018, largely due to the upsurge of political tensions. Nevertheless, the economy will likely continue to recover, leaving behind the recession. Among other factors, the recovery will be driven by monetary policy, whose expansive tone will contrast with fiscal policy’s restrictive tone.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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Activity indicators suggest that the economy started to grow again in 1Q17 after having contracted for eight consecutive quarters. We expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and by 1.8% in 2018. The approval of a social security reform would allow the government to adjust public expenditure and meet the new fiscal rule, and therefore to consolidate the prospects of recovery.

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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Perspectives for world growth have increased slightly in the last quarter. In Colombia, 2017 began slowly, with growth affected by the low level of consumer confidence and sluggish public and private investment. Inflation continues to decline and BanRep will slash its benchmark rate in the coming months.

Available in Spanish, English

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Economic Outlook Latin America. Second quarter 2017

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Growth in Latin America will recover to 1.1% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. This will bring an end to four years of slowdown and a return to growth, following the contraction of 1.4% in 2016, although growth will still be slow. The recovery in Argentina is firming up, while Brazil seems to be coming out of its period of adjustment

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America: an uneven recovery

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Financial markets in Latin American have continued to enjoy significant gains over the last few months, largely due to the reduced level of concern over US economic policies and a perception that any increase in interest rates by the Fed will be implemented gradually.

Available in Spanish, English

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Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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The downturn in Latin America ends. Growth is expected to increase from -1.4% in 2016 to 1.1% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. The recovery in Argentina is taking hold and Brazil leaves the recession behind.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin American Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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The downturn in Latin America ends. Growth is expected to increase from -1.4% in 2016 to 1.1% in 2017 and 1.8% in 2018. The recovery in Argentina is taking hold and Brazil leaves the recession behind.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America and the US shock

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There is still much uncertainty about the new economic policies that will eventually be implemented in the US, with three dimensions particularly relevant for Latin America: changes in policies on trade, immigration and remittances.

Available in Spanish, English

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Central Bank Digital Currencies: assessing implementation possibilities and impacts

Document Number 17/04

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Following advances in the distributed ledger technology, central banks are assessing the issuance of digital currency. There's a range of possible schemes to adopt depending on which features of cash to hold: universality, anonymity and non-yield bearing. We analyze opportunities and challenges of 4 key schemes, that support a strategy of gradual testing and implementation

Available in Spanish, English