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South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
Chief Economist
The South America unit consolidates BBVA Research’s analyses of the region’s economies, stressing transversal, structural analysis. It is formed by the BBVA Research teams on Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Venezuela as well as the transversal analysis team in Madrid. It is led by Juan Ruiz.

Latest Publications

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Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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Growth prospects deteriorate due to the financial volatility, the negative effects of exchange rate depreciation, doubts about whether the next government will face fiscal problems and the consequences of the recent truckers’ strike, among other factors. Thus the recovery process will be more gradual than expected

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks centre on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks center on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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Latin America maintains its recovery amidst external turbulence. Growth will increase from 1.2% in 2017, to 1.4% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019. The main external risks center on protectionism and on China. On the domestic front, political noise and the possible delay in public and private investment is an upside risk in a number of countries.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Are cryptocurrencies an option for Latin America’s central banks?

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The issue of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ether, among many others, has been increasing in recent years. Their use has been driven by the wish to use a decentralised currency that is not controlled by a central bank. Paradoxically, the technological development that made it popular is also within reach of the authorities.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP grew 1.0% in 2017 and should accelerate gradually going forward. We maintain our GDP growth forecasts of 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. Political and fiscal developments will shape the future economic performance; the sustainability of the economic recovery requires the adoption of structural measures to bring the fiscal deterioration to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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Assessing Corruption with Big Data

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We build a real-time, high-frequency Corruption Perception Index based on Google Trends data. It shows that the worldwide perception of corruption has been increasing since 2009, with significant heterogeneity across countries. Focusing in the case of Brazil, we show that a higher perception of corruption reduces both government approval ratings and confidence indexes.

Available in Spanish, English

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The new normal in Latam

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Latin America is consolidating the renewal of a growth cycle that began 2017. In the past few months activity figures have been pleasantly surprising in most countries. At the same time, prices of key export commodities have risen substantially.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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Latin America will grow 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, after growing 1.1% in 2017. The strong inflationary pressures are kept relativily bounced, except in Argentina and Mexico. The risks around the forecast of growth are biased to downside, but stabalize with respect three months ago.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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Latin America growths 1.7% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019, after growing 1.1% in 2017. The strong inflationary pressures are still relative bounded, except in Argentina and Mexico. The risks around the forecast of growth are biased to the low, but they become stable with respect three months ago.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Brazil Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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The economy has recovered faster than expected in 2017. Taking this and the improvements in the global environment into account, we revised our growth forecasts upwards. We expect that, after growing 1.0% in 2017, GDP will grow 2.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. However, the materialization of political and fiscal risks could bring the recovery process to an end.

Available in Spanish, English

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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

Available in English

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Latam: recovery in progress

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El crecimiento en América Latina sigue recuperándose. Es una recuperación aún lenta, pero se va extendiendo a más países y se apoya en un mejor entorno externo y un mayor optimismo interno. Pero los riesgos, aunque se han moderado levemente, siguen siendo significativos.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth recovers in Latin America, but will still be low in 2017-18. Growth is revised up 0.3pp in 2017 to 1.1% and remains unchanged at 1.6% in 2018. Growth in 2018 will be driven by the external sector and infrastructure investment in Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English