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South America
Juan Manuel Ruiz
Chief Economist
The South America unit consolidates BBVA Research’s analyses of the region’s economies, stressing transversal, structural analysis. It is formed by the BBVA Research teams on Argentina, Colombia, Chile, Peru and Venezuela as well as the transversal analysis team in Madrid. It is led by Juan Ruiz.

Latest Publications

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China’s role in Latin America: Participation & Consequences

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This presentation touches various issues: evolution of bilateral trade and investment, LatAm’s export dependency on China, China’s OFDI and financial influence in LatAm and existing critiques on China’s role in LatAms and new opportunities.

Available in English

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Latam: recovery in progress

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El crecimiento en América Latina sigue recuperándose. Es una recuperación aún lenta, pero se va extendiendo a más países y se apoya en un mejor entorno externo y un mayor optimismo interno. Pero los riesgos, aunque se han moderado levemente, siguen siendo significativos.

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth recovers in Latin America, but will still be low in 2017-18. Growth is revised up 0.3pp in 2017 to 1.1% and remains unchanged at 1.6% in 2018. Growth in 2018 will be driven by the external sector and infrastructure investment in Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth recovers in Latin America, but will still be low in 2017-18. Growth is revised up 0.3pp in 2017 to 1.1% and remains unchanged at 1.6% in 2018. Growth in 2018 will be driven by the external sector and infrastructure investment in Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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Growth recovers in Latin America, but will still be low in 2017-18. Growth is revised up 0.3pp in 2017 to 1.1% and remains unchanged at 1.6% in 2018. Growth in 2018 will be driven by the external sector and infrastructure investment in Argentina, Colombia and Peru.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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We continue to expect the Brazilian economy to grow by 0.6% this year and by 1.5% in the next one. While recent data suggest that the recovery could be somewhat stronger than expected, the fiscal situation and political noise prevent further optimism about growth.

Available in Spanish, English

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Urbanisation, digitisation and growth in Latin America

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It is little known that Latin America is a region which is as urban as developed economies and much more so than other emerging regions. How can the region take advantage of the opportunities generated by its high level of urbanisation?

Available in Spanish, English

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Growth in Latin America: the glass half full

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Latin America will grow this year. This is good news for the region following two consecutive years of contraction, 2015 and 2016, which followed three of slowdown due to the fall in commodity prices. BBVA Research expects the region as a whole to grow by 0.8% this year and 1.7% in 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Watch: Urbanization

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Urbanization took place earlier and at faster pace than in other emerging markets in Latam and is now at advanced economies’ levels. However, in spite of displaying high urbanization rates, Latin America show relatively low levels of income, capital, labor and productivity. The region should try to leverage on their high urbanization levels to boost digitization.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Growth in Latin America will increase to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018. The recovery after the -1.2% contraction in 2016 will be helped by the coming out of the recession by two of the main regional economies (Brazil and Argentina), as in most other countries there will be a growth slowdown in 2017 compared to 2016, hobbled by external shocks and weak domestic demand.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Infographic Latin America Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Slow growth in Latin America. Growth will increase from -1.2% in 2016 to 0.8% in 2017 and 1.7% in 2018, a slow recovery from deceleration in the previous years. Recovery will be driven by Brazil and Argentina’s exit from recession. Other countries will decelerate in 2017 compared to 2016.

Geographies:Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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We revised down our GDP forecasts to 0.6% in 2017 and 1.5% in 2018, largely due to the upsurge of political tensions. Nevertheless, the economy will likely continue to recover, leaving behind the recession. Among other factors, the recovery will be driven by monetary policy, whose expansive tone will contrast with fiscal policy’s restrictive tone.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Brazil Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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Activity indicators suggest that the economy started to grow again in 1Q17 after having contracted for eight consecutive quarters. We expect GDP to grow by 0.9% in 2017 and by 1.8% in 2018. The approval of a social security reform would allow the government to adjust public expenditure and meet the new fiscal rule, and therefore to consolidate the prospects of recovery.

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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Perspectives for world growth have increased slightly in the last quarter. In Colombia, 2017 began slowly, with growth affected by the low level of consumer confidence and sluggish public and private investment. Inflation continues to decline and BanRep will slash its benchmark rate in the coming months.

Available in Spanish, English