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Colombia
Juana Téllez
Chief Economist
BBVA Research Colombia, headed up by Juana Téllez, devotes itself to economic, financial, sector and regulatory analysis of the Colombian economy. With a broad view of the Colombian economy, it carries out a careful analysis of recent trends and short- and medium-term prospects. The Colombia unit seeks through its work to make a valuable contribution to the national debate on economic and regulatory issues and to assist businesses and households in their decision-making process.

Latest Publications

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil Price shock maintaining positive growth. Nonetheless the recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation should continue its descending path in 2018 reaching the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its reference interest rate.

Available in Spanish, English

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The Colombian road infrastructure: Where are we and where are we going in 4G?

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4G projects have demanded an overall significant effort. At the moment, 23 of the 32 4G projects have an ANI’s contractual financial closure and only 8 of them have a definitive one. Our scenario includes an execution which is slower than what the Government expects but that is still supporting GDP growth, especially in 2019. Challenges remain to be overcome.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil price shock maintaining growth in positive territory. The recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation will continue to descend in 2018 within the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its policy rate.

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Outlook. Second Quarter 2017

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Perspectives for world growth have increased slightly in the last quarter. In Colombia, 2017 began slowly, with growth affected by the low level of consumer confidence and sluggish public and private investment. Inflation continues to decline and BanRep will slash its benchmark rate in the coming months.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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World growth continues apace. The Colombian economy will grow slightly faster than it did in 2016. 2016 saw a healthy and significant adjustment to the current account. Inflation shakes off supply-side shocks and ratifies its sharp fall. The Banco de la República has embarked on a downward rate cycle.

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The global economy is gradually accelerating on the back of United States growth. Colombia GDP growth will rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 2.4% and 3.3% in 2017 and 2018. Investment will be decisive for reaching theses figures. The progressive reduction of inflation will allow BanRep to slash rates during 2017 and 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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The global economy is gradually accelerating on the back of United States growth. Colombia GDP growth will rise from 1.9% in 2016 to 2.4% and 3.3% in 2017 and 2018. Investment will be decisive for reaching theses figures. The progressive reduction of inflation will allow BanRep to slash rates during 2017 and 2018.

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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Global economy: slow recovery with the support of central banks. Colombia is nearing completion of its adjustment to lower oil prices and its growth will gradually accelerate from 2017 onwards. Current account deficit is rapidly decreasing. Rapid decline in inflation is making room for BanRep to be more aggressive in lowering intervention rates in 2017.

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Colombia Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016"

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Global economy: slow recovery with the support of central banks. Colombia is nearing completion of its adjustment to lower oil prices and its growth will gradually accelerate from 2017 onwards. Current account deficit is rapidly decreasing. Rapid decline in inflation is making room for the central bank to be more aggressive in lowering intervention rates in 2017

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia | The Colombian economy is adjusting in a challenging scenario

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Short presentation for the webinar Agro-industry perspectives in Colombia. Short and medium term GDP growth. inflation, exchange rate, leading economic sectors.

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Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish

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Colombia | A Better Future for Our Teenagers

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Recently the Minister of Health announced that for the first time in the last twenty years the number of teenage pregnancies in Colombia went down, changing the upward trend that this indicator registered since the nineties.

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Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish

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Colombia: Digital Context

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Colombia occupies an important position in terms of digital content among Latin American countries. The proportion of people using the Internet daily has increased considerably since 2014. Cost is considered the main constraint on Internet access, although this perception is weaker among young people.

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

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A gradual and well-ordered slowdown of the economy continues, reducing the macroeconomic imbalances. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities have diminished, though they have not disappeared. Market volatility in the wake of Brexit was offset by an expected more accommodating tone on the part of developed economies' central banks.

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Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia | Housing shortage persists

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Housing figures continue to show that, despite recent improvements, more than three million households still do not live in a place that meets adequate living conditions in terms of size or quality. A little over 25% of households nationwide are in this condition.

Available in Spanish

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Colombia | August inflation decelerated on lower food prices

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August inflation was -0,32% MoM (8,1%), below all market expectations (Bloomberg: 0.16% MoM, BBVAe: 0.25%). Food inflation (-1.5% MoM) was the main surprise, while core inflation grew 0.22% MoM, slightly below our forecast of 0.27%. We expect inflation to continue subsiding as favorable base effect will start to weigh on inflation in the coming months.

Units:
Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish