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Colombia
Juana Téllez
Chief Economist
BBVA Research Colombia, headed up by Juana Téllez, devotes itself to economic, financial, sector and regulatory analysis of the Colombian economy. With a broad view of the Colombian economy, it carries out a careful analysis of recent trends and short- and medium-term prospects. The Colombia unit seeks through its work to make a valuable contribution to the national debate on economic and regulatory issues and to assist businesses and households in their decision-making process.

Latest Publications

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Colombia | GDP growth second quarter 2018

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In the second quarter the economy grew by 2.5% (adjusted for seasonality and business days), close to the 2.6% posted for the first quarter. Activity was stimulated by the hiring of professional and scientific services (7.6% annually), the public sector (4.8%) and agro (4.7%). Industry figures foreshadow stronger private consumption.

Available in Spanish

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2018

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We expect and acceleration of GDP growth from 1.8% in 2017 to 2.6% in 2018 and 3.3% in 2019, driven mainly by private consumption. Low expected inflation, the adjustment in external accounts made by Colombia and the stability in the exchange rate will allow the Central Bank to maintain its reference rate in an accommodative stance for a prolonged time.

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Available in Spanish, English

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The economic challenges faced by the new Colombian president

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The new government must solidify its ongoing economic recovery by laying the foundations for better economic performance in the medium term. Growth will no longer depend merely on capital investments and population growth. 48% of the people now working under the table will need to be brought into the formal economy and productivity will have to be increased.

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Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2018

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GDP growth will accelerate, reaching a rate of 2.0% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, driven by private spending. Inflation will converge to the 3.0% target and will allow the Central Bank to reduce its rate to 4.0% in the second quarter of this year. The exchange rate will depreciate in the second half of 2018.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia | Building the recovery

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The housing sector has been one of the main drivers of economic activity. It will continue to be very important in the future. There is still ample margin for growth due to a housing deficit in the country, rising household incomes, and a recent improvement in financing conditions.

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Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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Economic recovery in Colombia will consolidate in 2018, especially in the second semester. Inflation will continue to decelerate in 2018 closing at 3,1%. The Central Bank will be able to reduce interest rates in the first half of 2018 to 4,0%. Structural imbalances continue to adjust, though in the fiscal front there are some challenges in 2019.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. First quarter 2018

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Higher oil prices and a more robust world growth contribute to the recovery cycle of the Colombian economy in 2018 and 2019. Inflation will continue decelerating, allowing the Central Bank to reduce their policy rate in 2018. Structural imbalances continue to adjust, even though the fiscal balance will face some challenges in 2019.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia | Financing housing: challenges in formalisation and banking

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The construction sector will be decisive in the new growth recovery cycle. The housing deficit, low rates of home ownership, the rise of the middle class and demographic conditions will help consolidate the housing sector.

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Geographies:Colombia

Available in Spanish

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Presentation Colombia Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2017

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The economic slowdown seems to have ended in the second quarter. In the third quarter, there are signs of recovery to be seen in several sectoral indicators, although growth will remain low for the full year.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy shows a better behavior from the third quarter leaving the deceleration cycle behind. For 2018 most sectors will contribute to the acceleration of the economy thanks to a stronger internal demand and a recovery in external demand.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil Price shock maintaining positive growth. Nonetheless the recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation should continue its descending path in 2018 reaching the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its reference interest rate.

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Available in Spanish, English

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The Colombian road infrastructure: Where are we and where are we going in 4G?

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4G projects have demanded an overall significant effort. At the moment, 23 of the 32 4G projects have an ANI’s contractual financial closure and only 8 of them have a definitive one. Our scenario includes an execution which is slower than what the Government expects but that is still supporting GDP growth, especially in 2019. Challenges remain to be overcome.

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Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Colombia Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Colombian economy responded positively to the oil price shock maintaining growth in positive territory. The recovery will be slow given the limited sources of growth. Inflation will continue to descend in 2018 within the target range and there will be space for the Central Bank to continue reducing its policy rate.

Units:

Available in Spanish, English