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Peru
Hugo Perea
Chief Economist
The Peru unit monitors and studies the Peruvian economy. At the macroeconomic level, these studies and projections of the various economic variables are published in the quarterly report Peru Economic Outlook. The unit also carries out analyses of the mining, construction and other sectors, which are also published on the BBVA Research website. The Peru unit is headed up by Hugo Perea.

Latest Publications

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

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Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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We project low growth this year with a rebound in 2018, driven by reconstruction and infrastructure spending.

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Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.

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Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2017

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We have revised our growth projection for this year by a percentage point to 2.5%. This adjustment reflects the fact that the three local risks we indicated in our February report have finally materialised: the weather problems continued, the delay in the major infrastructure construction projects continued and finally, business confidence dropped even further.

Units:
Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. First Quarter 2017

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We have revised our growth projection downwards, from 4.1% to 3.5%. The delay in infrastructure construction, one of the main risk factors considered in the report that we published last quarter, materialised in early 2017.

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Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Paraguay Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016″

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We expect GDP to grow by 2.9% next year. Growth will be supported by the start of infrastructure works and a gradual recovery in consumption

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Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2016

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We estimate that the Peruvian economy will grow by about 3.9% in 2016 and by 4.1% in 2017 when infrastructure projects will provide support.

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Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru | On-line purchasing intentions and household spending

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An indicator has been developed to anticipate household spending decisions in the short term using information from Internet searches related to shopping in supermarkets and department stores. We found evidence that this indicator anticipates and improves the ability to predict household spending in the short term

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Geographies:Peru Latin America

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

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We stand by our GDP growth forecasts for the Peruvian economy of 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in 2017. Higher mining production and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure works will shore up the growth in GDP over the next few quarters.

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Geographies:Latin America Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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Peru | Internet searches and sales projections of departments in Lima

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This report presents a purchasing interest index regarding the buying of apartments for the city of Lima (IICDG), which has been developed using information provided by Google Trends. There is evidence that the IICDG anticipates movements (by five quarters) and that this improves its ability to predict transactions in the real estate sector

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Geographies:Peru

Available in Spanish, English

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LatAm Daily | Inflation continues to lose steam in Peru

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Today’s is the last edition of our LatAm Daily Flash. For updated macroeconomic analysis of Latin America, please visit our webpage bbvaresearch.com. For daily comments on Latin American markets, please see our report Latin America Daily Update at bbvagmr.com.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The monetary policy rate in Colombia was increased by 25bps, as expected

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BanRep took the repo rate up to 7.75% and GDP for 2016 was revised down from 2.5% to 2.3%. June’s unemployment rose in Colombia (to 10.2%) and in Chile (to 6.9%). Also in Chile, activity data by sectors signals that activity growth will be under 1% YoY in June. In Brazil, the primary deficit worsened, reaching 1.1% of GDP in June, and we forecast 2.7% for the end of 2016.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Monetary policy rate in Colombia to increase by 25bps today

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We expect the BanRep to increase its MPR to 7.75%. Also, we expect the unemployment rate to have increased by 9.2%. In Mexico, we expect a more deteriorated preliminary GDP growth for 2Q16: 2.1% YoY / -0.1% QoQ. In Chile, the minutes of the last MP meeting will be released, as will unemployment figures (we expect an increase of 6.9%) and activity data by sector for June.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | Credit markets continue to slow down in Brazil

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Credit stock grew only 1.0% YoY, a negative rate in real terms as inflation in the period stood at 8.8% YoY. The further moderation of credit markets in the period supports our view that economic activity remains weak and that a further GDP contraction in 2Q16 is the most likely outcome.

Available in English

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LatAm Daily | The growth in economic activity in Mexico was higher than expected in May

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IGAE grew by 1.0% sa m/m, thanks to the services sector (1.2% m/m, sa). A small (even slightly negative) growth in economic activity is expected for Mexico in 2Q16. In Brazil, the minutes of last week’s MP meeting showed concerns about inflation, which still prevent a cut of the Selic rate. Also in Brazil, the CA deficit remained stable at around 1.7% of GDP in June.

Available in English