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Spain & Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
Chief Economist
The Spain and Portugal unit studies recent and likely future developments in Spain’s economy and that of its autonomous regions, stressing reforms that might improve its operation. It also monitors the behaviour of the Portuguese economy. The unit’s responsible is Miguel Cardoso.

Latest Publications

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Business cycle phases in Spain

Document Number 17/20

By , ,

We characterize regional business cycles for Spain using monthly Social Security affiliations. Based on a set of Markov-switching models, we find substantial synchronization of regional business cycles, which has increased since the Great Recession. We do however evidence a regional leading and lagging performance that repeats itself across the different recessions.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English

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Portugal: growth slows in 2Q17

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The growth rate of the Portuguese economy in 2Q17 decelerated to reach 0.3% QoQ, in line with the BBVA Research estimate (0.4% QoQ) and below that seen in 1Q17 (1.0% QoQ). Based on data so far available, BBVA Research estimates that growth in 3Q17 will be around 0.5% QoQ.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Spain | The positive trend of real estate consolidated in 1H17

By ,

The performance of real estate in the first half of the year confirms the expectations for 2017. The sale of housing consolidates its growth, 15.5% year-on-year in 1H17, supported by the good economic performance and the low costs of financing. In addition, the non-residential segment rebounded in the first half of the year.

Available in Spanish

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The effects of wage flexibility on activity and employment in the Spanish economy

By , ,

Together with Greece, Spain was the European country with the highest unemployment increase during the Great Recession, despite a fall in GDP similar to that in other economies. Objective of this paper: to quantify the macroeconomic effects of the changes in the labour market since 2012.

Available in English

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Electric vehicles: has their time come?

By ,

Did you know that the electric vehicle (EV) was invented in the nineteenth century, around fifty years before the internal combustion equivalent? In the 1910s, a third of automobiles circulating in the US were electric.

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2017

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Tourism in the Balearic and Canary Islands, investment in Andalusia and Murcia and exports in CC. AA. as Asturias, together with consumption that slows down less than expected, justify the upward revision of Spain's GDP to 3.3% in 2017. Balears, Canarias, Madrid, Murcia and Andalusia continue to lead growth

Available in Spanish

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Economic recovery facilitates compliance with stability targets

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The deficit adjustment continues in April 2017, led by Central government. In this scenario, the stability objectives are achievable thanks to the economic recovery. Given the persistence of imbalances, such as high public debt levels, there is still much work to be done for the control of the public accounts.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Portugal: growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 raised

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Available data point to a stabilisation of GDP growth during 2Q17 at around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA1. This estimate is likely to be the result of the continued growth of private consumption and the positive contribution of both the construction sector and tourism.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy will grow 3.3% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, three and one tenth more than what was estimated three months ago, confirming the upward bias anticipated on the scenario. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could be reduced to 15.3% by 2018, which would mean a recovery of two-thirds of the employment lost during the crisis.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy will grow 3.3% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, three and one tenth more than what was estimated three months ago, confirming the upward bias anticipated on the scenario. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could be reduced to 15.3% by 2018, which would mean a recovery of two-thirds of the employment lost during the crisis.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Questions about the recovery

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Should wages be increased? If so, by how much? Can the export sector continue to drive growth in employment? Is a bubble being formed in the property market? These are some of the questions that will be asked now that the Spanish economy is entering a phase of prolonged growth.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Pais Vasco Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Basque Country grew 2.8% in 2016, will grow as much this year and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 22,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 9.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita has been recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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Murcia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Murcia region grew 3.1% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 41,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 16.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Catalonia Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The Catalan economy grew by 3.5% in 2016 and will remain dynamic in 2017 (+ 3.3%) and in 2018 (+ 2.8%). 230,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018 and the unemployment rate will drop to 9.3%. Although GDP per capita GDP will recover in 2017, creating more and better jobs remains the main challenge.

Available in Catalan

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Spain | 2Q17 indicators point to upward bias in growth

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The Spanish economy gained traction throughout the first half of the year. Quarterly GDP growth is estimated to accelerate up to 1.0% in 2Q17. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply an upward bias in growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (0.8% QoQ) for the current quarter and (3.0%) for the whole of 2017.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English