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Spain & Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
Chief Economist
The Spain and Portugal unit studies recent and likely future developments in Spain’s economy and that of its autonomous regions, stressing reforms that might improve its operation. It also monitors the behaviour of the Portuguese economy. The unit’s responsible is Miguel Cardoso.

Latest Publications

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Spain Regional Watch. Third quarter 2017

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Tourism in the Balearic and Canary Islands, investment in Andalusia and Murcia and exports in CC. AA. as Asturias, together with consumption that slows down less than expected, justify the upward revision of Spain's GDP to 3.3% in 2017. Balears, Canarias, Madrid, Murcia and Andalusia continue to lead growth

Available in Spanish

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Economic recovery facilitates compliance with stability targets

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The deficit adjustment continues in April 2017, led by Central government. In this scenario, the stability objectives are achievable thanks to the economic recovery. Given the persistence of imbalances, such as high public debt levels, there is still much work to be done for the control of the public accounts.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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Portugal: growth forecast for 2017 and 2018 raised

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Available data point to a stabilisation of GDP growth during 2Q17 at around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA1. This estimate is likely to be the result of the continued growth of private consumption and the positive contribution of both the construction sector and tourism.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Presentation Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy will grow 3.3% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, three and one tenth more than what was estimated three months ago, confirming the upward bias anticipated on the scenario. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could be reduced to 15.3% by 2018, which would mean a recovery of two-thirds of the employment lost during the crisis.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy will grow 3.3% in 2017 and 2.8% in 2018, three and one tenth more than what was estimated three months ago, confirming the upward bias anticipated on the scenario. If these forecasts are met, the unemployment rate could be reduced to 15.3% by 2018, which would mean a recovery of two-thirds of the employment lost during the crisis.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Questions about the recovery

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Should wages be increased? If so, by how much? Can the export sector continue to drive growth in employment? Is a bubble being formed in the property market? These are some of the questions that will be asked now that the Spanish economy is entering a phase of prolonged growth.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Pais Vasco Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of the Basque Country grew 2.8% in 2016, will grow as much this year and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 22,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 9.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita has been recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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Murcia Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Murcia region grew 3.1% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 41,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 16.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Catalonia Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The Catalan economy grew by 3.5% in 2016 and will remain dynamic in 2017 (+ 3.3%) and in 2018 (+ 2.8%). 230,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018 and the unemployment rate will drop to 9.3%. Although GDP per capita GDP will recover in 2017, creating more and better jobs remains the main challenge.

Available in Catalan

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Spain | 2Q17 indicators point to upward bias in growth

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The Spanish economy gained traction throughout the first half of the year. Quarterly GDP growth is estimated to accelerate up to 1.0% in 2Q17. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply an upward bias in growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (0.8% QoQ) for the current quarter and (3.0%) for the whole of 2017.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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La Rioja Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of La Rioja grew 1.5% in 2016, and will accelerate to grow 2.9% in 2017 and 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 5,000 new jobs in the period and unemployment shall drop to 10.9%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered, creating more and better jobs remains as a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2017

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The economy of Madrid grew 3.7% in 2016, and will still grow 3.4% in 2017 and 2.9% in 2018. This will add around 135,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.4%. Although pre-crisis GDP and GDP per head level have already been recovered, creating more and better jobs remain as challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Adoption of online banking, a reality in Spain

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Do you access your bank online? If so, you are among the fifteen million users of online banking in Spain, six million more than in 2010.

Available in Spanish, English

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Portugal: growth once again surprise positively in 1Q17

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The growth rate of the Portuguese economy in 1Q17 accelerated to 1.0% QoQ, surpassing the BBVA Research estimate (0.2% QoQ). The quarterly growth was due to the positive contribution of external demand (0.8pp), given the strength exports have once again shown in a context of import slowdown.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Spain | Economic recovery gains traction during 2Q17

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The recovery of the Spanish economy strengthens during 2Q17. Quarterly GDP growth is estimated to accelerate up to 1.0 or 1.1%. If this forecast is confirmed, it would imply a slight upward bias on the 2017 growth considered in BBVA’s scenario (3.0%).

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English