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Spain & Portugal
Miguel Cardoso
Chief Economist
The Spain and Portugal unit studies recent and likely future developments in Spain’s economy and that of its autonomous regions, stressing reforms that might improve its operation. It also monitors the behaviour of the Portuguese economy. The unit’s responsible is Miguel Cardoso.

Latest Publications

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Navarre Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Navarre grew by 2.9% in 2016. It will grow by 3.0% in 2017 and by 2.8% in 2018. This will add some 8,000 new jobs between 3Q17 and the end of 2018; unemployment shall drop to 8.8% by then. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be recovered this year, creating more and better jobs remains a challenge.

Available in Basque, Spanish

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Causes of change in inequality of consumption

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Inequality in Spanish household income has increased during the crisis. However, in terms of consumption, inequality decreased. Accordingly, while wealthier families reduced spending by 17.2% between 2007 and 2015, those economically disadvantaged reduced it only by 7.6%.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Economic growth will allow to reduce public deficit below 3% of GDP in 2018

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The recovery of activity and a strong control of spending are driving fiscal adjustment. In this context, the probability of fulfilling the 2017 objective is high. Spain will exit the excessive deficit protocol in 2018. However, imbalances - that require that the fiscal discipline continues - persist.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish

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The impact of technological change and the future of employment

By , , ,

This presentation provides a panoramic and historical perspective on the the effects of technical progress; it analyses the effects of the fourth industrial revolution; and talks about the different policies to regulate the changes of this technological and digital transformation.

Available in Spanish

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Spain Regional Watch. Fourth Quarter 2017

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In 2017, revisions are explained by exports that are lower than expected, or by the exhaustion of tourism. In 2018, positive inertia and the external environment are favorable, but several factors, such as the economic effects of terrorist attacks and the uncertainty related to the political environment in Catalonia, point to a slowdown.

Available in Spanish

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Uncertainty and economic projections

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The political crisis in Catalonia, and its effects on recovery, has in recent weeks cast a shadow over the economic debate, specifically now that the world economy and Europe are growing in a robust, stable and very synchronized manner. We stand before a situation without precedent.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation "Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017"

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The Spanish economy will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, two and three tenths less than what was estimated in July, in an environment of greater economic policy uncertainty. However, the positive inertia in activity data, the favorable international environment and the monetary policy will continue to favor growth. The adoption of reforms is indispensable.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Spain Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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The Spanish economy will grow 3.1% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018, two and three tenths less than what was estimated in July, in an environment of greater economic policy uncertainty. However, the positive inertia in activity data, the favorable international environment and the monetary policy will continue to favor growth. The adoption of reforms is indispensable.

Geographies:Spain

Available in Spanish, English

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Madrid Economic Outlook. Second half 2017

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The economy of Madrid grew by 3.7% in 2016. It will also keep growing by 3.4% in 2017 and by 2.7% in 2018. This will add around 175,000 new jobs in that period and unemployment shall drop to 10.5%. Although GDP and GDP per capita have already recovered pre-crisis levels, creating more and better jobs remain important challenges better jobs remain important challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Asturias Economic Outlook 2017

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The economy of Asturias grew by 1.9% in 2016. It will grow by 2.4% in 2017 and by 2.3% in 2018. This will add around 12,300 new jobs in the period. Unemployment shall drop to 11.2%. Although pre-crisis GDP per capita will be almost recovered, creating more and better jobs remains a challenge.

Available in Spanish

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Uncertain impact of uncertainty

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The economic impact of the tensions currently being experienced in Catalonia is difficult to gauge. One way in which attempts have been made to do so is by constructing indices that seek to calibrate the level of uncertainty felt by households and businesses.

Available in Spanish, English

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Andalusia Economic Outlook. Second semester 2017

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Andalusia’s economy will grow by 3.2% in 2017 and 2.5% in 2018. The unemployment rate will remain high (23.2%) but 206,000 jobs will be created by the end of 2018. Pre-crisis GDP will be reached but the labor market will be characterized by major challenges.

Available in Spanish

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Portugal: growth picked up in 3Q17

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The available data points to a slight pick-up in GDP growth in 3Q17 of around 0.5% QoQ, SWDA. This estimate is likely to result from new momentum in investment and the lively levels of both exports and tourism. However, these may be counteracted by a less bullish performance of private consumption and an uptick in imports.

Geographies:Portugal

Available in Portuguese, Spanish, English

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Spain | New revaluation in the real estate sector

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The positive evolution of the real estate market has resulted in a new growth of housing prices in 2Q17. The data for the third quarter show a better performance than in the same period of the previous year: sales and construction activity were supported by the good performance of the economy and the mortgage market.

Available in Spanish

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Business cycle phases in Spain

Document Number 17/20

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We characterize regional business cycles for Spain using monthly Social Security affiliations. Based on a set of Markov-switching models, we find substantial synchronization of regional business cycles, which has increased since the Great Recession. We do however evidence a regional leading and lagging performance that repeats itself across the different recessions.

Geographies:Spain

Available in English