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Turkey, China & Big Data
Alvaro Ortiz
Chief Economist
Turkey, China & Big Data unit studies the economic and geopolitical situation of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Analysis is carried out from both the short-term and the strategic and long-term perspectives, focusing on the key emerging economies (EAGLEs) and with particular attention to China and Turkey. The unit also develops Big Data technologies and models for high-frequency economic, social, political and geostrategic monitoring. It is led by Álvaro Ortiz.

Latest Publications

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China | Growth slowdown in Q3 calls for more easing measures

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Sep economic indicators, together with Q3 GDP, were reported today. Q3 GDP growth slowed down to 6.5% y/y, compared with 6.7% y/y in the previous quarter and 6.6% of the market consensus. This suggests the economy further moderated amid the escalation of trade war and domestic deleveraging. We expect monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth in the rest of year.

Available in English

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Turkey | Some slow-down signals, more to come

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The sharp decline in the unadjusted IP (-11%) in August, which is in line with our expectations (BBVA -11.5%), also implies a yearly contraction in industrial production in 3Q18 which will weigh on GDP growth. With 40% of information, our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts a 2% yoy growth in September and we expect it to continue to decelerate.

Available in English

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China | Peering into the local government debt: rising risks call for prompt actions

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We attempt to answer the questions regarding China’s local government debt: (i) what’s the total size of the local government debt; (ii) why the local government debt has grown to today’s level despite the central government’s clamping-down efforts; (iii) whether the risks are still manageable; and (iv) how can the authorities solve this local government debt problem.

Available in English

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Turkey | A big upside surprise on inflation

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CPI increased 6.3% (mom) in September, significantly higher than our and market expectations (3.9% vs. 3.4%). This leads the annual figure to jump to 24.5% from 17.9% in August. Today’s inflation data shows that pricing behavior is adjusting faster than expected and this could be considered as a “factor affecting inflation requiring further monetary policy tightening”.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest September

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Tensions between the US and North Korea remained contained as both parties. However, US-China relations worsened as both countries imposed new tariffs. The US and Canada achieved a new trade deal including Mexico to replace NAFTA. Turkey and Russia agreed to resolve the Idlib dispute in Syria with demilitarized zones. US-Iran relations are still on a worsening track.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | Stable Sentiment towards Financial Vulnerabilities - 3Q18

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The China Vulnerability Sentiment Index remained stable through Q3 despite the escalated trade disputes with the US and growth slowdown. By component, the SOE index remained vulnerable. Both Housing Bubble and Shadow banking index still held well. The Exchange Rate Index plummeted before recovered on the central bank’s revealed efforts to stabilize the exchange rate.

Available in English

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Turkey | A more realistic New Economic Program

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Turkey’s New Economic Program (NEP) hinders a re-balancing of the economy with fiscal consolidation in the short term in a more realistic framework.The NEP is more consistent with expectations. The prudent stance of the fiscal policy is now more adequate and should complement the already tight monetary policy conditions to re-balance the economy.

Available in English

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China | A big data approach to gauge trade-war fears in Asia

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In this watch, we examine the evolving trade-war sentiment across Asian economies using Big Data analysis.

Available in English

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Fighting an uphill battle - the overcapacity in China's steel industry

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This presentation analyzes China's overcapacity problem in the Iron & Steel industry. On top of reviewing the past (unsuccessful) efforts to eliminate overcapacity, it attempts to provide policy suggestions for the clean-up of obsolete capacity.

Available in English

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China | Recent easing measures helped to stabilize growth

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August economic indicators are announced today, suggesting the recent monetary and fiscal easing measures helped to stabilize economic growth. However, headwinds from domestic deleveraging and the escalating trade war will continue to weigh on growth. Monetary and fiscal policy to become more pro-growth although the authorities remain vigilant on financial vulnerabilities.

Available in English

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Turkey | The CBRT delivers a new bold action

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The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked policy interest rate (one-week repo) by 625bps to 24.0%. The hike is remarkably higher than expectations (21% Bloomberg) and even ours (22.75% BBVA Research). The decision of the CBRT doesn't only contribute to fight against inflation and inflation expectations but also supports financial stability by decreasing the pressures over the currency

Available in English

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Turkey | 2Q growth signals the adjustment is underway

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Turkish economy grew by 5.2% (YoY) in 2Q18 (5.3% Consensus vs. 5.5% BBVA Research). As expected, the seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly growth rate decelerated from 1.5% in 1Q18 to 0.9% in 2Q, which means that the adjustment is underway. We expect GDP to grow 3% in 2018.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Protest August

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The U.S. and Mexico announced a preliminary bilateral trade agreement replacing NAFTA at the end of the month. The bilateral deal between the US and Canada is still uncertain. President Trump also warned that a withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) could also be possible. MENA region remains as the main hot spot.

Available in Spanish, English

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Turkey | Upside surprise from core prices

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Consumer prices increased 2.3% (mom) in August slightly higher than our estimate and market consensus (2.0% vs. 2.2%), leading the annual figure to rise to 17.90% from 15.85% in July. Annual core inflation accelerated to 17.2% in August from 15.1% on top of strengthening exchange rate pass-thru and climbing cost-push factors.

Available in English

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China | Growth slowdown continues

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July economic indicators are announced today, together with the previously released credit data, suggesting that growth slowdown continued. In particular, FAI, industrial production and retail sales dropped from the previous readings and below the market expectations. More easing measures of monetary policy and more pro-growth fiscal stimulus are expected in coming months.

Available in English