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Turkey, China & Geopolitics
Alvaro Ortiz
Chief Economist
Turkey, China & Geopolitics unit studies the economic and geopolitical situation of Asia, the Middle East and North Africa. Analysis is carried out from both the short-term and the strategic and long-term perspectives, focusing on the key emerging economies (EAGLEs) and with particular attention to China and Turkey. The Geopolitical unit also develops Big Data technologies and models for high-frequency economic, social, political and geostrategic monitoring. It is led by Álvaro Ortiz.

Latest Publications

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Trump and the Silk Road

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US president Donald Trump has just completed his first presidential tour of Asia, where he attended APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) summits.

Available in Spanish, English

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Big Data Spain 2017: Monitoring world geopolitics through Big Data

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BBVA Research presentation in one of the most important analytics conferences in Europe in Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Technologies, IoT, Machine Learning and Digital Transformation.

Available in English

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Turkey: The Central Bank of Turkey designs a mechanism to mitigate FX volatility

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The CBRT announced yesterday they will start to auction foreign exchange (FX) hedging instruments to enhance tools to manage corporates’ currency risk. We elaborate the main goal of the new tool as to reduce the Turkish lira volatility by both enhancing liquidity and increasing financial depth in the currency market.

Available in English

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China | October indicators suggest growth moderation continues

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October economic indicators announced today, together with the credit figures released yesterday, were all below the previous readings and the market consensus. As we predicted, the economy continued its moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include prudent monetary policy and regulatory tightening as well as the supply-side reform.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - October 2017 Update

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The potential increase of tensions between Iran and US and the North Korean crisis are the main hot spots in the month which should be closely monitored. The political uncertainty in Spain after the Catalonian failed independence attempt took up the national and international attention too.

Available in Spanish, English

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China | One Belt One Road – progress and prospects

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The One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative provides an overarching framework for China to achieve its economic and strategic ambitions. China’s large industrial overcapacity, surplus capital and efforts to secure resources complement the need to address infrastructure and funding constraints in OBOR countries. That said, challenges faced by OBOR initiative are significant.

Available in English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment extends gains in October

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) notched its fourth straight month of improvement in October, reflecting favourable policy mix, marked by accommodative fiscal policy to stabilise growth and prudent monetary and regulatory measures to curb financial fragility risks. China’s focus on quality of growth at 19th Party Congress bodes well for CVSI going forward.

Available in English

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Big Data & Big Models at BBVA Research

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1. Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research; 2. Geopolitics, Trade and Spill overs; 3. Economic & Risk indicators in Real Time; 4. Text Mining and Sentiment analysis

Available in English

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How do the Central Banks talk?: a Big Data approach to Turkey

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Big Data analysis offers a huge potential for economic research. Natural Language Processing techniques allow us to read the policy documents of the Central Banks and to analyse the topics and sentiments inside. We extend the NLP analysis to the CB of the Emerging Markets to analyse the monetary policy evolution over time of the Central Bank of Turkey.

Available in English

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China | Policy-led growth moderation coupled with mitigated financial risks

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China’s Q3 GDP growth declined to 6.8% from its 6.9% y/y reading in 1H. It suggests that after registering a stronger-than-expected growth in 1H, the economy showed more signs of moderation in Q3 due to the authorities’ policy initiatives. These policies include the continuing prudent monetary policy and the regulatory tightening on shadow banking and property market.

Available in English

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IIF Panel "New Methods for Old Questions". Big Data at BBVA Research

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Big Data allows us to use massive new flows of data (numbers, text & images…) on real time​ and new scope​ to ​complement with new methods the answer to old questions. The new technologies allow us to ​gauge not only structural issues ​ ​as Geopolitics, Trade, Globalization... ​but also the analysis of Business Cycle, narratives, sentiments.

Available in English

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China Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2017

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China's economy showed signs of moderation in the third quarter due to a number of policy initiatives .To reflect the strong 1H growth and mitigated risks, we raise our 2017 growth forecast to 6.7%. Looking ahead, the dynamic of China’s economy will highly depend on the authorities’ attitudes towards the balance between pursuing growth and maintaining financial stability.

Available in English

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Turkey: Credit Shock & the Economy

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Since the implementation of the Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) last March, it has provided some extra GDP growth through both the increase in supply and demand of credit, but it will also have side effects. In this watch, we use a Sign Restrictions SVAR model to disentangle the effects of the KGF on the economy from both supply and demand of credit.

Available in English

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Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest - September 2017 Update

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European political arena focused the world attention in September given the German elections and the Catalonian political uncertainty after the referendum vote. North Korea crisis remained as one of the main world threats, as well as the regional instability in Middle East, which increased uncertainties after the Kurdish independency referendum results.

Available in Spanish, English

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China: Vulnerability sentiment stays upbeat in September

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Our China Vulnerability Sentiment Index (CVSI) for September held on to its recent gains with regulators focusing on maintaining macro-financial stability ahead of the crucial 19th Chinese Communist Party Congress (CCP). Activity moderation extended in August, led by policy efforts to reduce overcapacity, curb leverage and reduce housing inventory.

Available in English