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United States of America
Nathaniel Karp
Chief Economist
The unit’s work is centred on analysis of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Its macroeconomic analysis incorporates the development of models and forecasts of growth, inflation, monetary policy and the interest rate curve. The unit, under Nathaniel Karp’s guidance, also specialises in the energy sector and carries out analyses of the automotive, real estate, financial and other sectors. The team also conducts regional studies of states and cities, with particular emphasis on the Sun Belt states where BBVA is present.
Personal Assistant | Erika Gersch

Latest Publications

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U.S. | When Robots Do It All and Leisure is Mandatory: Not for another 100 years

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Advancements in machine learning, mobile robotics, and computing power have led to machines that are increasingly capable of performing non-routine tasks and navigating in real time. Artificial intelligence is gaining traction as an attractive investment within the tech industry

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: new and existing home sales

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 19, 2017. Special topic: review of the most recent economic developments

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FOMC June 13-14 Meeting: Wonder Woman Brings Hope to Markets

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In a widely anticipated move, for a third consecutive quarter, the FOMC raised its benchmark interest rate 25bp to 1.25%, as the labor market continued to tighten in the Committee’s eyes despite some slowing job gains over the past months

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: inflation, retail sales and the upcoming FOMC meeting

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of June 12, 2017. Special topic: upcoming FOMC meeting

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U.S. | From bricks to clicks: e-commerce of today

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E-commerce has enjoyed rapid growth both in quantity and in variety. Still, both online only and traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are important players for total retail sales. In the future, brick-and-mortar stores should make better use of human resources and focus on high value-added services

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: auto sales

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Discussion on the recent auto sales trends and expectations for the coming period

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. May 2017

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FOMC minutes and Fedspeak have signaled FOMC readiness to raise the Fed funds rate by another 25bp at its next meeting in June. The Committee’s commitment to the gradual reduction of its balance sheet “later this year” remains unchanged and will likely receive be green lighted once the funds rate extends midway towards the median of the FOMC projected long-run rate of 3.0%

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure spending, a need rather than a stimulus

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Discussion on infrastructure spending: the economic impact, current state of infrastructure, and funding options

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Banking and the fight against climate change

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The fight against climate change is one of the greatest challenges currently facing mankind. From the socio-economic point of view, the panorama is alarming. Experts warn that a sustained increase in the average temperature on Earth would have serious effects for millions of people

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto sales: a look under the hood

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Both secular and cyclical factors are behind the current slowdown in auto sales. We expect auto sales to fall below 17 million units in 2017. The decline in demand could prompt a significant adjustment in the auto industry

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: changing face of demographics

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Population growth and ageing in the U.S., and their implications on the economy

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment, inflation and housing

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 15. Special topic: April employment and inflation reports

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: risks and opportunities in climate change

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Discussion on the role of the banking industry in the fight against climate change

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United States Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2017

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Following the election, survey expectations began to climb at a fast pace while consumption slowed and investment remained flat. This gap widened despite limited progress on tax reform, healthcare, infrastructure, immigration and trade policy

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation U.S. Economic Outlook 2Q17

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Economy at or near full employment. GDP growth will remain on a sustainable path. Investment gaining traction. Upward price pressures from energy and housing expected to moderate going forward. Fed more comfortable as economic indicators align with their views. Gradual policy normalization will continue. Two more 25bp rate increases in 2017

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 1, 2017. Special topic: 1Q GDP

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U.S. | Risks and Opportunities in Climate Change

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The world economy is transitioning to a carbon-free paradigm triggered by the potentially disastrous effects of climate change. In the following years, vast amounts of capital will be allocated to mitigation and adaptation projects. With the right strategy, the opportunities for the banking industry could outweigh the risks

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. April 2017

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Per the March meeting minutes, FOMC members have discussed a phased-out approach to ceasing the balance sheet reinvestment policy – to reduce “the risks of triggering financial market volatility” and avoiding a rebirth of the taper," to remain committed to acting “passive and predictable,” and to communicate “to the public well in advance of an actual change”

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: 1Q GDP, consumer confidence and sentiment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 24, 2017. Special topic: overview of the recently published economic reports

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: fintech and housing

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 17, 2017. Special topic: fintech for boomers

Geographies:USA