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United States of America
Nathaniel Karp
Chief Economist
The unit’s work is centred on analysis of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Its macroeconomic analysis incorporates the development of models and forecasts of growth, inflation, monetary policy and the interest rate curve. The unit, under Nathaniel Karp’s guidance, also specialises in the energy sector and carries out analyses of the automotive, real estate, financial and other sectors. The team also conducts regional studies of states and cities, with particular emphasis on the Sun Belt states where BBVA is present.
Personal Assistant | Erika Gersch

Latest Publications

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U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook. August 2017

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Despite supportive economic fundamentals and generous incentives, demand for new vehicles continues to slow down. Consumers continue to show a strong bias towards light-trucks, which reached 63% of total sales in July. The alternative fuel segment continues to expand, a substitution effect is taking place between hybrid-gasoline and increasingly reliable PHEV and BEV.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: yield curve, retail sales and housing starts

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 14, 2017. Special topic: the U.S. yield curve

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: infrastructure, inflation and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of August 7, 2017. Special topic: Economic effects of infrastructure policy

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U.S. | Residential construction: ready for final inspection

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A rebound in household formation could lead to an increase in housing demand. The supply of new units is likely to increase to 1.4 million per year from 1.2 million currently. Building restrictions in attractive metropolitan areas will support construction activity in other areas

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. July 2017

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The FOMC voted unanimously to leave its benchmark rate unchanged, between 1% and 1.25%, signaling a “relatively soon” taper of maturing Treasuries and mortgage securities reinvestments, in their July meeting

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP, personal income, spending and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of July 31, 2017. Special topic: 2Q GDP

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United States Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2017

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Most people would agree that the current expansion cycle has been anemic. Since 2010, average real GDP growth has been 2.1%, significantly lower than 3.2% between 1992 and 2007. Over time, the cumulative difference between the two paths could be quite dramatic

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: housing starts and 2Q GDP

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of July 24, 2017. Special topic: housing starts

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U.S | FOMC Meeting July 25th-26th

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July meeting opportunity for Fed to keep markets aligned with a gradual tightening path

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | The Permian basin and the rebound in U.S. crude oil production

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U.S. crude oil production continues to increase, complicating efforts made by OPEC and its partners to stabilize the market through output cuts. After reaching a bottom in July 2016, U.S. production has surged by 969,000 b/d to 9.4 million b/d as of July 7 2017. At this pace, production could surpass its previous peak of 9.6 million b/d sometime in what remains of 2017.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Big Data, Dwindling Participation

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How Big Data helps in understanding secular declines in U.S. prime age labor force participation

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: when robots do it all and leisure is mandatory

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Machines are likely to take over many tasks that humans perform, but they are not likely to seize many occupations entirely. The necessity of flexible labor retraining programs is essential. The major documented impact of automation on labor has been a decline in worker hours.

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: renewables, the answer is blowin’ in the wind

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The outlook for global wind energy is positive. Although government support will continue to play an important role in the development of the wind energy projects, ongoing productivity gains are expected to make subsidies and tax breaks less relevant over time.

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U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. July 2017

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Regional recovery still on track in spite of pullback in expectations nationally

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment and construction spending

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of July 3, 2017