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United States of America
Nathaniel Karp
Chief Economist
The unit’s work is centred on analysis of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Its macroeconomic analysis incorporates the development of models and forecasts of growth, inflation, monetary policy and the interest rate curve. The unit, under Nathaniel Karp’s guidance, also specialises in the energy sector and carries out analyses of the automotive, real estate, financial and other sectors. The team also conducts regional studies of states and cities, with particular emphasis on the Sun Belt states where BBVA is present.
Personal Assistant | Erika Gersch

Latest Publications

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: personal consumption and consumer confidence

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 20, 2017. Special topic: trends in personal consumption

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: tax reform and growth, and select upcoming economic indicators

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 13, 2017. Special topic: will tax reform deliver faster economic growth?

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: blockchain and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of November 6, 2017. Special topic: the future of blockchain

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. October 2017

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The November FOMC meeting is not expected to deliver any policy course alteration. Financial markets will remain watchful of the statement’s tweaks on inflation wording.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 30, 2017. Special topic: first estimate of 3Q GDP

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United States Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2017

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The current economic expansion has reached 100 months and if trends continue, by spring of next year, it will become the second longest in 160 years

Available in Spanish, English

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Natural Interest Rates in the U.S., Canada and Mexico

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The U.S. and Canada show a downward trend in their natural interest rates; Mexico’s remains stable. The non-growth factor matters the most for Mexico, while the growth factor matters the most for Canada. The comovement of r-stars is high for the U.S. and Canada. The prospect of increasing natural interest rates for the U.S. will affect both Canada and Mexico

Available in Spanish, English

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The Next Federal Reserve Chair: YOU’RE HIRED!!!

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The FOMC is poised to undergo a nontrivial change in leadership and composition with four new regional Fed members rotating into voting roles and with a potential change in leadership. There are also three additional governor’s seats and potentially four vacancies –depending if Chair Yellen stays– that President Trump could fill

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: 3Q GDP

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 23, 2017

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: the state of the housing market

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 16, 2017. Special topic: the state of the housing market

Geographies:USA

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U.S. | Blockchain: The Road to Utopia

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Non-financial blockchain applications are growing exponentially. Transaction costs will decline considerably, thereby impacting the role of intermediaries. The blockchain is expected to set the basis for better economic, social and political systems

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment, manufacturing, services, inflation and retail sales

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 9, 2017. Special topic: analysis of several recently published economic indicators

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U.S. | State Monthly Activity Indexes. October 2017

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Economic activity increased in 47 states, and declined in AK, DE and WV. Stronger global growth, a rebound in the mining sector and increased trade activity supporting regional growth. Florida and Texas to face headwinds from hurricanes Irma and Harvey, but effects should be transitory. Fundamentals in the Sunbelt region remain auspicious in spite of weather events

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: natural interest rate and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of October 2, 2017. Special topic: natural interest rate

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. September 2017

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The FOMC announced the start of the balance sheet normalization process to begin in October while maintained the Fed funds rate target range at 1%-1.25%

Available in English