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United States of America
Nathaniel Karp
Chief Economist
The unit’s work is centred on analysis of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Its macroeconomic analysis incorporates the development of models and forecasts of growth, inflation, monetary policy and the interest rate curve. The unit, under Nathaniel Karp’s guidance, also specialises in the energy sector and carries out analyses of the automotive, real estate, financial and other sectors. The team also conducts regional studies of states and cities, with particular emphasis on the Sun Belt states where BBVA is present.
Personal Assistant | Erika Gersch

Latest Publications

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: 2018 outlook

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Weekly economic update focusing on the outlook for 2018

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: retail sales, consumption and consumer credit

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of January 8, 2018

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U.S.| Interest Rates Chartbook. December 2017

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The ​FOMC increased the Fed funds rate to 1.25%-1.50%. Fed funds futures steepen on an optimistic economic growth outlook for 2018. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved sideways in 2017. The baseline is for a gradual increase in long-term yields with the yield curve slope flattening by an additional 15 basis points.

Available in English

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Technology lets consumers take the initiative

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The changes in spending patterns that have come about in the past twenty years confirm that digital information and communication technology has now become an integral part of consumer behaviour. Irrespective of age, income, sex or any other demographic or socioeconomic characteristic, today’s consumers are highly connected.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: tax effects on home prices

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Economic update focusing on the effects of tax changes on home prices

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U.S. | The state of prolonged low interest rates challenges financial stability

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Financial stability is defined by its ability to facilitate economic growth. Yet in the “new normal” economic environment of prolonged moderate growth, low nominal and real interest rates, an aging population, and rising longevity, the economic environment poses risks to financial stability.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Oil Prices Outlook 2018-2022. December 2017

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Further price increases in the short-run supported by robust demand and inventory correction. Geopolitical factors could lift prices further. In the mid-term, supply is expected to catch up with higher prices, intensifying the fight for market share.

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: oil prices, personal income and spending

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of December 18, 2017. Special topic: oil price outlook

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U.S. | Tax reform and home prices: Is there a cause for concern?

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The net effect of the proposed tax changes on house prices will be limited. Doubling the standard deduction will increase the incentives to rent. The lower cap on mortgage interest deduction can lower prices of homes in higher price ranges over time. Other tax proposals will tighten housing market conditions and generate upward pressures on home prices.

Available in Spanish, English

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FOMC Meeting December 12th-13th

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FOMC: Passing the Baton for Final Phase of Normalization

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: Employment, inflation and retail sales

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of December 11, 2017. Special topic: November employment report

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U.S. | Are Equity Prices Overvalued?

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The stock market is not significantly overpriced after controlling the effect of imminent corporate tax cuts. No visible credit bubble for domestic debt. The deleveraging of households and financial institutions is effective

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: Technology empowered consumers and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of December 4, 2017. Special topic: technology, the consumer of the future, and the shaping of industries

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. November 2017

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A December Federal funds rate increase to the 1.25%-1.50% range is warranted given upbeat third quarter economic performance with the GDP annualized growth rate revised upward to 3.3% and unemployment at a 17 year low

Available in English