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United States of America
Nathaniel Karp
Chief Economist
The unit’s work is centred on analysis of the US economy and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Its macroeconomic analysis incorporates the development of models and forecasts of growth, inflation, monetary policy and the interest rate curve. The unit, under Nathaniel Karp’s guidance, also specialises in the energy sector and carries out analyses of the automotive, real estate, financial and other sectors. The team also conducts regional studies of states and cities, with particular emphasis on the Sun Belt states where BBVA is present.
Personal Assistant | Erika Gersch

Latest Publications

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Banking and the fight against climate change

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The fight against climate change is one of the greatest challenges currently facing mankind. From the socio-economic point of view, the panorama is alarming. Experts warn that a sustained increase in the average temperature on Earth would have serious effects for millions of people

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Auto sales: a look under the hood

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Both secular and cyclical factors are behind the current slowdown in auto sales. We expect auto sales to fall below 17 million units in 2017. The decline in demand could prompt a significant adjustment in the auto industry

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: changing face of demographics

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Population growth and ageing in the U.S., and their implications on the economy

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment, inflation and housing

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 15. Special topic: April employment and inflation reports

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: risks and opportunities in climate change

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Discussion on the role of the banking industry in the fight against climate change

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United States Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2017

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Following the election, survey expectations began to climb at a fast pace while consumption slowed and investment remained flat. This gap widened despite limited progress on tax reform, healthcare, infrastructure, immigration and trade policy

Available in Spanish, English

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Presentation U.S. Economic Outlook 2Q17

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Economy at or near full employment. GDP growth will remain on a sustainable path. Investment gaining traction. Upward price pressures from energy and housing expected to moderate going forward. Fed more comfortable as economic indicators align with their views. Gradual policy normalization will continue. Two more 25bp rate increases in 2017

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: GDP and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of May 1, 2017. Special topic: 1Q GDP

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U.S. | Risks and Opportunities in Climate Change

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The world economy is transitioning to a carbon-free paradigm triggered by the potentially disastrous effects of climate change. In the following years, vast amounts of capital will be allocated to mitigation and adaptation projects. With the right strategy, the opportunities for the banking industry could outweigh the risks

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. April 2017

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Per the March meeting minutes, FOMC members have discussed a phased-out approach to ceasing the balance sheet reinvestment policy – to reduce “the risks of triggering financial market volatility” and avoiding a rebirth of the taper," to remain committed to acting “passive and predictable,” and to communicate “to the public well in advance of an actual change”

Available in English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: 1Q GDP, consumer confidence and sentiment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 24, 2017. Special topic: overview of the recently published economic reports

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: fintech and housing

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 17, 2017. Special topic: fintech for boomers

Geographies:USA

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: employment, inflation and retail sales

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 10, 2017. Special topic: March employment report

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U.S. | Embracing "flat" – a new norm in long-term yields

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A flattened term premium curve is unprecedented when compared to previous Fed tightening cycles. Term premium dynamics are driven by the amplified role of duration risk as a shock absorber. Economic growth expectations remain the main driving force behind the long-term yields trajectory

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: housing and employment

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of April 3, 2017. Special topic: Supply of existing homes for sale

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U.S. | Interest Rates Chartbook. March 2017

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The FOMC has raised the Fed funds rate for the third time since the start of the policy rate normalization cycle in 2015. The Committee has also reinforced its commitment to the gradual Fed funds rate increase in line with their projections of an additional two rate increases planned for 2017

Available in English

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U.S. | Fintech for Boomers: Follow the money

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Baby Boomers present greatest mobile banking growth, spending power, and asset ownership in the short-to-medium term. Given inefficiencies of Social Security program and high debt, retirement planning technology is attractive to Boomers. Companies offering prevention of elder financial abuse will benefit from greater customer trust.

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Weekly podcast: 100th episode and GDP

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Weekly economic update focusing on the major economic indicators to be released the week of March 27, 2017. Special topic: 100th episode!

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U.S. | What’s behind the low supply of existing homes for sale?

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The inventory of existing homes for sale has declined y-o-y for 21 consecutive months. Locked low mortgage interest rates and short supply of new housing have contributed to the current situation. The high share of homeowners underwater does not seem to currently play a major role. Low unsold inventory is expected to persist, underscoring the need for new housing units

Geographies:USA

Available in Spanish, English

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U.S. | Big data analysis: Trump effect on trade narratives

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Public opinions toward certain trade issues have shifted since the election cycle. Policies aimed at reducing trade imbalances seem to have a high priority for the Trump administration

Available in Spanish, English