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    Impact on pension fund investments in infrastructure under the global financial regulation

    By , ,

    One common denominator observed in global financial regulation is the tendency to allow pension funds to invest more in infrastructure. Considering this, our study analyses what regulatory changes are currently taking place from a global perspective and what are the relevant factors that impacts on pension fund’s decisions to invest in infrastructure.

    Available in English

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    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest April Update

    By ,

    Attacks by Russian forces intensified in Ukraine during April, raising tensions in the zone and increasing the possibility of a renewed offensive. ISIS is trying to strengthen its foothold beyond the Middle East, extending through North Africa and Afghanistan. Instability remained in Yemen, prompting geopolitical concerns in the region. East Asia and Europe remained calm.

    Available in English

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    Follow what I do and also what I say: monetary policy impact on Brazil’s financial markets

    Document Number 15/12

    By , ,

    We find that futures rates increase (decrease) after both an increase in the reference interest rate and a hawkish (dovish) communication by the BCB. Moreover, BCB words create more “noise”, since they increase volatility of futures rates. Our analysis reveals that BCB communication has increased its effectiveness after the 2008 crisis, while deeds became less relevant.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | FOMC Statement: April 28th – 29th

    By

    FOMC Review of Economic Activity Hints at Rate Hike After June. Committee acknowledged the 1Q15 slowdown based on jobs, spending, and exports. Increased concerns over import price declines and the potential impact on core inflation. We maintain our expectations for the first rate hike in September, closing out 2015 at 0.5%

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Financial Regulation Outlook. April 2015

    By , , , , , , , ,

    This month we focus on: Basel reviews the standardised approach for credit risk, FSB's financial reform agenda, Mexico’s RCAP Review, the Single Resolution Board’s kick-off, the IMF Financial Stability Report and ECB annual report on supervisory activities.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Are Low Long-Term Rates Here to Stay?

    By

    Are Low Long-Term Rates Here to Stay? The Fed’s Liftoff vs. Downward Pressures on Long-Term Rates

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    Digital Economy Outlook. April 2015

    By , ,

    In this first issue we focus on: A first overview of the Digital Economy; Economic development and digital banking; E-money in Latin America; Faster Payments; and Measuring the Digital Economy: the Networked Readiness Index.

    Available in English

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    Portugal | Strong growth to start the year

    By , , , ,

    In the opening months of the year the rebound in private consumption was probably the spur for faster progress by the Portuguese economy despite a slightly flatter labour market and weaker exports

    Geographies: Portugal
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    Asia Economic Outlook: Cautious Optimism

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    We take stock of the key themes for Asia in 2015, including falling commodity and oil prices, uneven global growth, weak external demand, the Fed's policy rate normalization and the pace of implementation of structural reforms.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | State monthly activity indexes. March 2015

    By ,

    Upswing expected after transitory weakness in 1Q15. In March, activity increased in 47 states, but the pace of expansion decelerated in the Sunbelt, with the largest deceleration in New Mexico. Mining activity fell below trend in most states, while manufacturing, transportation, and utilities increased

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Chile | Food inflation will continue to decline during 2015

    By , , ,

    We observe an increased risk that food’s annual inflation in the local CPI will be subject to a substantial deceleration during the next months, which implies a lower inflationary incidence of 0.84% in the headline CPI –in relation to the one observed in March 2015. We maintain our forecast of an annual CPI inflation below 3% for 2015 end of period.

    Available in Spanish

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    Balearic Islands Outlook. First half 2015

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    The Balearic Islands economy is still picking up pace. Growth of 3.3% is forecast in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016, again above the national average. Around 38,000 jobs could be created up to late 2016, taking employment beyond the pre-crisis level.

    Available in Spanish

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    Canary Islands Outlook. First half 2015

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    The Canary Islands economy continues to gather pace. Growth of 3.3% is forecast in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016, once again ahead of the nationwide average. Around 60,000 more jobs could be created up to the end of 2016.

    Geographies: Canary Island

    Available in Spanish

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    U.S. | Trade Promotion Authority (TPA): Vital for Trade

    By

    TPA ensures transparency and improves labor and environmental standards of trade deals. Passage of TPA will determine success of trade deals under negotiation. Both Congress and administration stand to gain from TPA

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Infographics | The banking correspondent business model

    By , ,

    Banking correspondents are non-financial commercial establishments that offer basic financial services under the name of a financial services provider, becoming access points to the formal financial system. This business model makes it sustainable for banks to focus on low-income clients with a cost-efficient access channel.

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    Colombia | Automotive Outlook 2015.

    By , , , ,

    Car sales are expected to slow down to 290,000 and 305,000 units in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with a greater share of local assembled vehicles of total sales. The potential for growth in the sector in the medium term remains unchanged. We forecast an increase in the price of vehicles because of the exchange rate depreciation.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Extending access to the formal financial system: the banking correspondent business model

    By , ,

    New ways of understanding banking, technological improvements, and regulation yield new means of interaction between customers and banks through outsourcing agreements. This paper provides the first harmonised database with information on the number of banking correspondents by country, which helps in measuring access to the formal financial system.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The global economy and China: Some key challenges ahead

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    Debt accumulation remains pervasive, with a clear focus on China, while very low inflation levels make the debt burden even heavier. Looking forward, it will be important to focus on the debt and disinflation dynamics including Asia, where China can be a key trigger point.

    Units:
    Geographies: China

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Three drivers of the U.S. demographic makeover

    By ,

    Unprecedented challenges to economic growth from slower population growth and increased life expectancy. Demographic paradigm creating a tradeoff between lower overall growth and policy intervention. Diversity playing a greater role in policymaking, business decisions and output

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Aragon Outlook. First half 2015

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    BBVA Research forecasts 2.8% growth in the regional economy in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016. This momentum will raise the number of people in work by a further 25,000 between 2015 and 2016.

    Geographies: Aragon

    Available in Spanish

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