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    The Iran Deal: pros and cons for the Turkish economy

    By ,

    The P5+1 nuclear deal with Iran constitutes a milestone with significant international implications, especially for the Middle East. The deal's net effect is positive since it avoided a nuclear escalation in the region. Part of its success has been to circumscribe negotiations to the nuclear issue. The deal will benefit Turkey in economic terms, but challenges will arise.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Auto Industry Chartbook

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    Robust demand for light weight vehicles driven by low interest rates, low energy prices, and improving job prospects.

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    U.S. | Oil and Gas Chartbook

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    After two months of relative stability, crude prices went down again due to over-supply concerns. Both production and inventories continued to expand despite the downward trend in rig count and capital expenditures.

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    U.S. | Biometrics: the future of mobile payments

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    Benefits from biometric authentication extend beyond improving security. Its adoption rate will continue to surge, particularly in the financial sector. Biometrics has potential to transform the mobile payments system

    Geographies:Spain USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. Negotiates Historic Deal with Iran

    By , ,

    The White House is committed to implementing the deal despite fierce opposition. Iran can increase oil production and exports, resulting in downward pressures on oil prices. However, impact is dependent on Iran's compliance and volatile dynamics in the region.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    ECB, the focus is on Greece

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    The ECB reiterates its focus on the full implementation of its measures and its readiness to do more, if needed. The APP proceeds smoothly, despite recent developments in financial markets. On Greece, the ECB increases the ELA to Greek banks by EUR900mn euros as “several positive things that have happened” On the euro, Mr Draghi wants decisive steps on further integration

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Murcia Economic Outlook. First half 2015

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    Murcia’s economy is building on the growth which began in 2014. BBVA Research forecasts growth of 3.2% in 2015 and 2.6% in 2016. 38,000 jobs will be created over the two years and the unemployment rate will come down to 23%.

    Available in Spanish

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    Mexico Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2015

    By , , , , ,

    Growth should pick up from the second quarter of the year. Implementation of reforms should continue, so as to speed up growth in the coming years. Domestic demand should be strengthened to provide balance for the drivers of growth. Inflation has reached its historical low and should hold at levels of under 3.0% for the rest of the year

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Monitoring ECB balance sheet expansion (June 2015)

    By , , , , , , ,

    In June, the asset purchase programme was ahead of the set monthly target of EUR60bn, (EUR62.9bn). We still think that inviting speculation over an early withdrawal of stimuli would be both premature and risky, especially in a context where risks deriving not only from the situation in Greece but also from China are giving rise to a high degree of uncertainty.

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    U.S. | Blockchain Technology: The Ultimate Disruption in the Financial System

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    Blockchain ledgers bypasses centralized financial infrastructure. This leads to the development of new businesses and the overhaul of existing ones. For the financial sector it could imply the biggest disruption to date

    Geographies:Spain USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Latin America Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2015

    By , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

    LatAm growth will remain low in 2015 and will slowly pick up in 2016, though still below the region’s potential level. Unevenness will continue in the region, with Brazil in recession and the Pacific Alliance growing at around 3%.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Crisis, households’ expenditure and family structure

    Document Number 15/22

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    This paper analyses the changes in the distribution of households’ standards of living, as measured by consumption expenditures, in Spain and its regions during the period 2007-2014.

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    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest June Update

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    ISIS continued gaining ground in June, launching large attacks in northern Syria (recovering Kobani), eastern Iraq, Afghanistan, Yemen, Kuwait and North Africa. They also proclaimed the creation of a new governorate in North Caucasus. Attacks on Ukrainian frontline positions continued, making more likely a new offensive. Instability remained stable in East Asia and Europe.

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    La Rioja Economic Outlook. First half 2015

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    The gathering pace of La Rioja’s economy is based on both internal and external factors, which are driving exports and industry. BBVA Research’s scenario predicts growth of 3.5% in 2015 and 3.2% in 2016, with the potential creation of 5,000 jobs over the two years. The exchange rate and the oil price are supporting competitiveness.

    Available in Spanish

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    U.S. | FOMC Minutes: June 16th – 17th Meeting

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    Discussion Highlights Risks to Delaying Liftoff Despite Global Concerns. FOMC commits to new “implementation note” as additional post-meeting publication for communicating policy normalization plans. Discussion centered on risks of delaying liftoff signals that the FOMC is ready to act. However, developments in Greece and China could rebalance downside risks to liftoff

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Spain | Growth could have reached its top speed in 2Q15

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    The trend for observed variables confirms a quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) of 1.0%. Although this figure is 0.1pp lower than the estimate released a month ago, it remained above the levels registered both in 1Q15 and the average over the expansive phase of the preceding cycle (0.9% QoQ).

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2015

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    Madrid’s economy is building on the growth it embarked on in 2014. BBVA Research forecasts growth of 3.3% in 2015 and 3.1% in 2016. Some 170,000 jobs will be created over this time.

    Available in Spanish

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    U.S. Monthly Economic Outlook July 2015

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    U.S. Monthly Economic Outlook conference call on Friday, July 10th, 2015, at 10am Central Time

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    EU loss-absorbing capacity requirement: final MREL guidelines

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    On 3 July 2015, the EBA published the final technical standard on the criteria for determining the minimum requirement for own funds and eligible liabilities for bail-in – the so-called MREL. With the MREL, European authorities seek to ensure that banks have enough liabilities to absorb losses in case of a bank’s failure. It will enter into force in 2016.

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    Sectors with the most potential for capitalising on integration within Pacific Alliance

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    In each of the PA countries there are between four and eight intermediate and capital goods sectors (as well as others for final goods) that show potential for capitalising on integration of the PA through establishment of value chains, strengthening of exports or cross-border M&A. There are sectors which are particularly notable for their significance in several countries

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