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1.Summary

Por , , , , ,

For 2018 we foresee GDP growing by around 3.5% (and 3.8% in 2019). The increase of just over a percentage point in growth will come about in a context in which the international panorama continues to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. On the domestic front, as well as the return to normal of weather conditions, there will be a fiscal stimulus.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


2.Global growth confirmed

Por , , , , ,

Our forecasts point to global growth accelerating slightly in the 2018-19 two-year period by around 0.1 pp to 3.8%, implying an upward revision of some 0.3 pp relative to the scenario presented three months ago. This change is in response to the higher growth now forecast for the US, China and the euro zone in 2018.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


3.Peru: we have revised our growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 downwards

Por , , , , ,

For 2018 we foresee GDP growing by around 3.5% (and 3.8% in 2019). The increase of just over a percentage point in growth will come about in a context in which the international panorama continues to be favourable for the Peruvian economy. On the domestic front, as well as the return to normal of weather conditions, there will be a fiscal stimulus.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


4.Fiscal policy: the major challenge continues to be increasing government revenues

Por , , , , ,

The acceleration in public spending will take the fiscal deficit temporarily from 3.2% in 2017 to 3.4% in 2018. This will be the biggest deficit in eighteen years. Later on, from 2019, the government has the objective of consolidating the fiscal accounts.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


5.Small current account deficit: strength in an environment of moderating capital inflows

Por , , , , ,

For 2018 we foresee some deterioration in the external deficit to a level equivalent to 1.8% of GDP. Later on, despite the small- and medium-size mining projects starting to produce from 2021, the downward correction in metal prices and the consolidation of domestic demand will take the current account deficit of the balance of payments to around 2% of GDP.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


6.Financial markets: assets continue to perform well, albeit with bouts of volatility

Por , , , , ,

We foresee the panorama on the forex market remaining qualitatively similar, albeit with the trade surplus and the inflow of capital gradually moderating, and with the central bank continuing to be active. In that context, the PEN will end the year at a similar level to that of year-end 2017, but will subsequently tend to depreciate somewhat.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


7.Inflation will then tend to move towards the middle of the target range

Por , , , , ,

Inflation will continue to fall in the first quarter of 2018 and for a short time will be below the target range. Later on, however, it will tend to move closer to the middle of the target range, which we estimate it will reach towards year-end.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


8.Monetary policy: More easing on the way?

Por , , , , ,

The central bank has continued with cuts to its reference interest rate in the past few months. It currently stands at 3.0%. We do not rule out the possibility of an additional cut of 25 bps in the next two or three months. Our baseline scenario incorporates this cut and assumes that the base rate will be held at 2.75% at least until mid-2019.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú


9.Growth projection for 2018 with high degree of uncertainty

Por , , , , ,

An important factor, on which our growth projection for 2018 also depends, is the domestic political situation. The baseline scenario incorporates a degree of caution in spending by both businesses and households, as well as in public spending. These events seem to have added to the sense that political stability is precarious and hence to uncertainty.

Unidades:
Geografías:Latam Perú



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