Searcher

CBRT

CBRT latest publications

July 3, 2019

Turkey | June inflation opens the door for rate cuts

Consumer prices increased by 0.03% in June, lower than consensus but slightly higher than ours (0.2% Bloomberg vs. -0.15% BBVA Research). Supported by the base effects, annual inflation declined to 15.7% from 18.7% in May.

January 16, 2019

Turkey | The CBRT stays tight with deeds and words

The Central Bank (CBRT) kept its policy rate (one-week repo, 24%) unchanged in line with expectations. We consider the decision as the right one as it supports the disinflation path and reinforces credibility. In our view, the CBRT should wait for June (when the recovery in inflation becomes more obvious) to start an easing…

September 14, 2018

Turkey | The CBRT delivers a new bold action

The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked policy interest rate (one-week repo) by 625bps to 24.0%. The hike is remarkably higher than expectations (21% Bloomberg) and even ours (22.75% BBVA Research). The decision of the CBRT doesn't only contribute to fight against inflation and inflation expectations but also supports financial stabi…

July 24, 2018

Turkey | The CBRT stays on hold & Lira depreciates

The Central Bank (CBRT) decided to maintain the policy rate unchanged (17.75%) despite the market expectations (including ours) of 100 bps tightening. We expect the CBRT will have to tight later, maybe tighter depending on the degree of fiscal consolidation and currency volatility.

June 8, 2018

Turkey | CBRT surprised markets on the upside

The Central Bank (CBRT) hiked the one-week repo rate by 125 bps to 17.75%, clearly above market expectations (BBVA Research 50bps). With the decision, the CBRT reinforces its stance on inflation worries in the short term and takes a solid step to restore credibility against rapidly worsening inflation expectations.

June 4, 2018

Turkey | Inflation outlook deteriorated further in May

Consumer prices increased 1.62% (mom) in May, slightly higher than BBVA Research & Consensus estimate of 1.45%. Annual consumer inflation jumped to 12.15% from 10.85% on a broad-based worsening. We expect a limited hike (around 50bps) in the next CBRT meeting on June, 7 to strengthen its recent policy decisions and enhance …

May 24, 2018

Turkey´s 300bps hike: The later, the tighter

The CBRT decided yesterday to raise the “de facto” policy interest rate (Late Liquidity Window) by 300bps to 16.5% to correct the significant depreciation of the Turkish Lira, also with other reasons including the huge deviation of inflation from the target and expectations, financial stability motives and rapid loss of cre…

April 4, 2018

How do the EM central banks talk? A Big Data approach to the Turkish Central Bank (CBRT)

In this presentation, we analyze the Central Bank of Turkey's communication strategy. Particularly, what the CBRT is talking about through topic Analysis and “How” the CBRT is talking through sentiment Analysis. We also analyze the interconnectedness between topics using network analysis.