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Consumer prices rose by 4.53% in Feb, higher than our exp. and cons. (4.0% both), and annual inflation accelerated to 67.07% (64.86% prev.). Given the strong realizations in Jan. and Feb, we expect tighter financial conditions to be pursued in post-election period and maintain our 2024 year-end inflation expectation of 45%.

Consumer prices rose by 6.70% in January, higher than our expectation (5.7%) but parallel to the consensus (6.6%) and annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly to 64.86% (vs. 64.77 prev.). We eliminate our previous downward bias and now expect consumer inflation to slow down to 45% by end 2024.

Consumer prices rose by 2.93% m/m in Dec, lower than our expectation (3.3%) and consensus (3.0%) and annual CPI accelerated to 64.77% (vs. 61.98% prev.). We expect 2024 year-end consumer inflation to reach 45%, though recent improvement in infl…

Consumer prices rose by 3.28% m/m in Nov, lower than both our expectation (4.0%) and cons. (3.7%), while annual inflation accelerated to 61.98% (vs. 61.36% prev.). Considering the recent lower than expected realizations coupled with the positiv…

Consumer prices rose by 3.43% m/m in October, lower than both our expectation (4.5%), resulting in an annual inflation of 61.36%. We expect consumer inflation to be realized closer to the upper bound of the Central Bank’s revised inflation proj…

Consumer prices rose by 4.75% m/m in September, close to our expectation and market consensus (both 4.8%), leading annual inflation accelerate to 61.5%. Assuming a delayed adjustment in the currency and a soft landing in growth, we expect consumer inflation to reach 70% by end 2023 and slow down to 50% at the end of 2024.

In August, monthly inflation was 0.70% and annual inflation was 11.43%, above the average expectations of market analysts, who, according to the Banco de la República survey, expected a monthly variation of 0.44%.

Consumer prices rose by 9.09% m/m in August, higher than both our expectation (7.0%) and market consensus (7.2%), resulting in an annual inflation of 58.9% up from 47.8% in July. Considering higher-than-expected August realization, consumer inf…

In July, monthly inflation was 0.50% and annual inflation 11.78%, above the average of market analysts' expectations (0.30%), and even above the maximum expected according to Banco de la República's survey. Compared to the annual change in June…

In August, monthly inflation was 1.02% and annual inflation 10.84%, above the average expectation of market analysts (0.54% in monthly variation according to the monthly survey of Banco de la República) and even above their maximum forecast of …

Türkiye’s food security outlook has shown comparatively lower progress with risk factors pointing to multifaceted issues involving food inflation, agricultural imports, natural resources and policy choices. Our analysis assesses all of these risk factors, drawing policy suggestions for improving food security of Türkiye.

In July, inflation reached a double-digit annual variation of 10.21% and a monthly variation of 0.81%, above analysts' expectations (average monthly variation of 0.53% according to Banco de la República's survey) and BBVA Research.