Publications

Following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, defense has become key in Europe. BBVA Research has developed a high-frequency indicator based on Council of Ministers agreements to track Spanish defense spending. Data shows a significant rise since 2022, reflecting a clear modernization of national defense capabilities.

This paper introduces a novel measure of Structural Geopolitical Risk (SGR), designed to capture the long-run conditions that shape the likelihood of geopolitical tensions, conflicts, and fragmentation.

Increased defense spending could provide a significant boost to economic activity, with ripple effects across multiple sectors, including the metals industry, machinery, and telecommunications services.

The effort to increase the military and security capabilities Europe needs will be more sustainable the more it supports economic growth.

This presentation analyzes forecasts and recent developments related to the global economy, as well as other issues such as geopolitics, the US dollar and the new global financial architecture, defense in Europe, and GenAI, employment, and productivity.

In this publication you will find, on a weekly basis, our selection of the most relevant news regarding financial regulation.

GDP is projected to grow by around 2.5% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, maintaining a pace close to the medium-term trend despite a slowdown. This deceleration will be largely driven by shifts in U.S. trade policy and the heightened uncertainty they have triggered.