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The last weekend of March saw the Spanish Government make the isolation measures in the country more restrictive, bringing a halt to all non-essential activity in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Activities considered essential include those carried out by financial services companies, including banks.
The credit granted by banks remained the main source of funding for the private sector. Financial intermediaries have granted one third of the formal loan portfolio to mortgage loans over the past five years. Portfolio balances mirror patterns of economic activity at the end of 2019.
The Covid-19 pandemic that escalated in the first quarter of this year will have a dramatic impact on the U.S. banking sector. The effects will range from direct and immediate to indirect and long-term that will only emerge in the wake of the crisis.
The headwinds from declining oil demand and increasing supply will delay the recovery of the Texas economy. Consequently, we expect Texas GDP to decline between -3.7% and -6.9% in 2020, that is, worse than the U.S. average. This would mark the worst recession since at least 1978.
The 2021 Pre-Criteria guidelines for economic policy emphasizes the need to keep fiscal discipline; we think this should be done from a structural perspective to make it possible to boost public spending alongside a credible fiscal reform proposal that increases tax revenue and comes into effect after the sanitary emergency