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Baseline growth forecast unchanged, but risks tilted to downside. Model-based recession projections suggest probability around 75% over the next 24-months. Mixed signals from labor market indicators. Downside risks to inflation moderating.
Markets regained risk appetite amid some positive news on the trade front, better-than-expected earnings in the U.S. retail and hopes of a more stable government in Italy. Investors will closely watch today’s Fed minutes for better insight on the decision to cut rates last month.
The boom in agricultural exports has been one of the greatest achievements of the Peruvian economy over the past twenty years. This has been particularly true for fruits and vegetables, mainly sent to Europe and the US. This performance has placed Peru among the most important global suppliers for some products.
Investors traded cautiously, awaiting more clues concerning monetary policy. Safe-haven assets outperformed others, with sovereign bonds rallying.