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    Asia’s economic ties with Latam

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    China is king for trade while Japan remains key for investments, but for how long?

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    Financial Regulation Outlook. March 2015

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    This month we focus on: Basel reviews the securitisation prudential framework. Turkish G20 Presidency.TLAC next steps: Quantitative Impact Study (QIS). EBA on Basel III Monitoring Exercise. EBA updates on future EU-wide stress test and Faster payments.

    Available in English

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    The Iran & P5+1 Agreement: not just technical issues

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    A new round of discussions between the P5+1 countries and Iran is approaching and both parties will try to find a "comprehensive" agreement to curb Iran’s nuclear potential in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Although “nuclear technical details” and sanctions relief remain the key issues, politic and geopolitics details of the agreement’s implementation are not minor

    Available in English

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    The role of schools in the students’ personal finance

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    The role of the school in the student's personal finance varies geographically. In countries like US, Australia, Latvia and Colombia, the influence of school / college is more significant than in others such as Poland, Slovenia and Italy. Spain is closer to the behavior of this second group of countries.

    Available in Spanish

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    Competitiveness and the Internationalization of the Spanish economy

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    One of the main challenges of the Spanish economy is to reduce the unemployment rate without incurring in past imbalances. This requires a wide menu of economic policies to increase extensive and intensive exports margins, promoting firm growth. We review these challenges in terms of competitiveness and the internationalization of the Spanish economy.

    Available in English

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    Portugal: after the positive surprise in 4Q14, the recovery continues earlier this year

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    The recovery gained traction in 4Q14, thanks to the increase in exports and with the data available for 1Q15, our MICA-BBVA model forecasts that recovery will continue at a similar pace to 4Q14, with growth of 0.4%-0.5% QoQ

    Geographies: Portugal
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    Peru Economic Outlook. First quarter 2015

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    We are holding to our growth forecasts of 4.8% for 2015, with a bias to the downside. The estimate is conditional on better exports performance (mining) and a slight recovery in private-sector investment. Risks to our growth scenario are biased to the downside, business confidence could be affected by continued disappointing growth figures and political grandstanding

    Units:
    Geographies:Peru

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Castilla y León Outlook. First half 2015

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    The economic recovery in Castile Leon intensifies, supported by both external and domestic factors. The exchange rate and the oil price will improve competitiveness and drive activity. Castile Leon could create 34,000 jobs between 2015 and 2016, although this must go hand in hand with increased productivity. The demographic issue is one of the main challenges facing.

    Available in Spanish

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    U.S. | State monthly activity indexes

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    Majority of States can expect pickup in 1Q15. In January, activity increased in nearly every state, despite the effects of exceptionally harsh winter weather in the Northeast and Southeast. Ohio, Mississippi, and Hawaii experienced large gains in retail trade, as consumers’ disposable income increased 0.4%

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Eurozone: the growth rate has become more firmly established at the beginning of 2015

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    In the last few months, confidence indicators have ticked upwards and brighter activity figures are beginning to emerge, taking heart from the low oil price and the weaker euro in the wake of the ECB measures. The consumption indicators are particularly encouraging

    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | FOMC Statement: March 17th – 18th

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    FOMC Drops “Patient”, First Rate Hike Unlikely in April. The FOMC removed “patient” but ensured that no decision has been made on timing. Revised projections hint at more pessimistic growth outlook and slower pace of rate hikes. Our expectations remain for the first rate hike in September, closing out 2015 at 0.5%

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico Economic Outlook First Quarter 2015

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    Exports will be the main driver of economic growth in 2015. Uneven growth is observed depending on geographic areas resulting in opposite monetary policies in the US and the eurozone. Inflation will remain close to the Bank of Mexico target of 3.0% for most of the year

    Geographies:Mexico

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Country Risk Report. First quarter 2015

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    Financial tensions are building up in several regions and volatility is on the rise in different markets (particularly in FX). Geopolitical risks are still alive even though markets are ignoring them. Portfolio flows will continue to digest the Fed’s wording probably until the path of rate increases settles in. The ECB's puts limits Greece's spill-overs.

    Available in Spanish

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    Repercussions of Fed rate hikes for capital inflows to Latin America

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    Monetary normalisation by the Fed will have major implications for Latin America, which should experience capital outflows of around 3.0% of GDP in the next two years.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Financial regulation: completing banking union

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    Banking union is a milestone in the European project. It has chiefly helped to stop fragmentation but will not be able to break the sovereign-bank doom loop until it can rely on a robust safety net. Advancing towards a complete banking union should be a priority for EU leaders but this will require advances in the fiscal union front too.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. oil & gas industry chartbook

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    The drastic fall in oil in prices continues to remain at the forefront of economic activity, with the potential for faster economic growth (via higher consumption). Although prices appear to be stabilizing, the continued imbalance between supply and demand is expected to keep oil prices low in the short-run

    Available in English

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    Mexico | Understanding savings affordability through socio-demographic variables

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    In this paper I analyze the behavior of households to gain a greater understanding of what could lie behind the savings affordability of Mexican consumers. This analysis relies on an econometric model that evaluates the influence of some socio-demographic variables associated with those surveyed consumers while controlling for the country’s macroeconomic context

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | JOLTS off to a strong start in 2015 as openings reach highest level in 14 years

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    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for March 2015 provided hope of an improving economy. Although lower than expected, job openings stood at 4998K, rising 2.4% from the previous month’s revised report

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Spain | Economic growth accelerates, underpinned by domestic demand

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    The Spanish economy’s recovery will press on in 2015. It estimates GDP growth of 0.9% (QoQ) which, if confirmed, will mean an acceleration in line with the BBVA-Research scenario. The improvement in activity is characterised by the intensification in job creation which will probably continue to exert downward pressure on apparent labour productivity in the short term.

    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. monthly economic outlook March 2015

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    U.S. Monthly Economic Outlook conference call on Wednesday, March 11, 2015, at 10am Central Time

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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