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    Hong Kong | Will the city economy abandon its decades-old peg to the USD?

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    A number of hedge funds have shifted their attention to Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), speculating on the possibility of the currency abandoning its decades-old peg to the USD. It has led the HKD to soften against the USD and raised the interbank interest rate. However, we believe that HKD de-pegging is an unlikely scenario for a number of reasons.

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    Geographies:Asia China

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    Transmission of monetary policy in the euro zone, monitoring via a synthetic indicator

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    The transmission of monetary policy is a key element which the ECB monitors in order to assess how the monetary policies it has set in motion are being transferred to the real economy. The smooth functioning of this mechanism is a necessary condition for achieving the ECB's ultimate objective of price stability.

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    So far, a tale of macro stability but still moderate growth: what is the outlook?

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    A structural outlook of the Mexican economy: a journey trough strength and weaknesses. Recent developments: growth, markets, vulnerabilities. Second generation of economic reforms.

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    Mexico | Remittances reached US$24.77 billion in 2015, 4.8% up on the previous year

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    The total inflow of remittances to Mexico grew by 4.8% in 2015 to US$24.77 billion. In December 2015 remittances fell by 2.1% compared with the same month of 2014, with a inflow of US$2.19 billion, bringing an end to a period of ten consecutive months of growth

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    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Migration

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    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest January Update

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    Geopolitical conflicts have become one of the main threats to world stability and will continue to be challenging during 2016. The Syrian war is far from solved despite the Geneva talks. ISIS continued spreading its regional campaign. Russia showed no sign of making peace in Ukraine. New health crisis arose with the spread of the Zika virus.

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    Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2015

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    Latam moves at two-speeds, with the Pacific Alliance growing 2.4% in 2015-16 and Brazil in recession, weighing down Mercosur. The exchange rates have depreciated against the volatility in markets as a result of doubts about China. Given the high inflation, some central banks have tightened monetary policy.

    Geographies:Latin America

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    Chile | Although fiscal deficit closed at 2.2% in 2015, room for maneuver will narrow

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    Due to positive surprises in non-cyclical revenues (related to one-timers in both tax reform and anti-trust fines) and an under-execution in government investment, effective fiscal deficit reaches a 2.2% of GDP in 2015 while structural balance reaches a deficit at 0.3% of GDP, below of government projection in September 2015.

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    Geographies:Chile

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    Heterogeneity and dissemination of the digital economy: the case of Spain

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    The study of the process of this phenomenon can be conducted on either the supply or the demand side. On the supply side, innovation is one of the main pillars underpinning economic growth in countries (Schumpeter,1910; Romer, 1995). On the demand side, there is an abundance of literature, that develops the theories of technological dissemination (Bass, 1964; Rogers, 1995)

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    Financial Regulation Outlook. February 2016

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    This month we focus on: Council´s work programme, SRB priorities, SSM supervisory priorities, Maximum Distributable Amount (MDA), Capital Markets Union, Securitisation, European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS), Europe’s financial transactions tax, Other Systemically Important Institutions in Europe y AML and identity verification.

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    Resolution regimes in Latin America

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    Latin America has ample experience in dealing with banking and financial crises. As a result of this the region has developed bank resolution regimes whose main goal is to deal with failures in an orderly way. The aim of this note is to analyse and describe the resolution regimes in Latin America and to compare their resolution tools to those of the FSB's Key Attributes.

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    FOMC Statement: January 26th – 27th Meeting

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    Dovish Twist Setting the Stage for Potential Downshift in Fed’s Policy Plans. Statement highlights economic vulnerability but FOMC still downplaying inflation concerns. Members likely to reduce policy path expectations in revised projections to come in March. We continue to expect only two additional increases in 2016, closing out the year at 1.0%

    Geographies:USA

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    Monitoring the expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet (December 2015)

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    In December, the asset purchasing programme failed to reach its monthly target of EUR60bn, and came in at EUR50.2bn. In spite of this decline in purchases, this allowed the average since the programme began in March 2015 to reach EUR60bn. The ECB opened the door to more measures in March, although the ECB’s room for manoeuvre is increasingly limited

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    U.S. | Oil Price Outlook

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    Market fundamentals are behind oil price drop. Further declines are likely. We expect a modest rebound in 2H16-2017. Long-run equilibrium price around $60/bbl. Structural trends limit upside risks.

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    China | A tale of two markets for the redback

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    Chinese financial turmoil has thrown the RMB exchange rate under the spotlight. In particular, the gap between RMB exchange rates in its onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) markets reached the historical high. This has motivated us to introduce this unique phenomenon of “one currency, two markets” of the RMB, and investigate the relationship between the two exchange rates.

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    Peru Economic Outlook. Fourth Quarter 2015

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    We forecast a growth below 3.0% in 2015 and 2016. Increased copper production and construction work on major infrastructure will be the mainstays of 2016’s GDP growth. This forecast incorporates the effects of a strong El Niño weather phenomenon.

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    Geographies:Peru

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    Paraguay Economic Outlook. Second half 2015

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    In a deteriorating international environment, the rate of expansion of the Paraguayan GDP has moderated in the past few months and we expect that it will expand 3.2% in 2015. For 2016, in a challenging context, we forecast a growth of 3.4% where domestic demand will be the main driver, so the economy will remain among the most dynamic in the region.

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    Geographies:Paraguay

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    The ECB hints at further easing in March

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    The ECB will “review and possibly reconsider” its monetary policy stance at next meeting. The Governing Council (GC) was unanimous in today´s line of communication. The central bank has recognised that downside risks have increased to both inflation and economic growth since the December meeting.

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    Iran: lifting of sanctions, a milestone on the nuclear deal

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    This weekend has marked a milestone in the Iran nuclear deal. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verified on 16 January that Iran has implemented its nuclear-related commitments. In exchange, the international economic sanctions on Iran have been lifted, allowing key sectors to rejoin the international community, such as the oil and gas, banking and gold sectors

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    EMU: determinants of mortgate interes rates in the euro area

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    The peculiarity of mortgage rates in the euro area lies in the different national mortgage markets with several factors (type of source of funding, cultural differences, national regulations, inflationary history, etc) which characterizes the choice of interest rate.

    Geographies:Spain Europe
    Topics:Banks

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    Portugal | Return to moderate growth at the end of 2015

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    In the last stretch of the year, the Portuguese economy was driven more by external than domestic demand. In spite of the resilience of confidence to the global events and the uncertainty linked to the process of forming the new government, domestic demand remains weak pending the revelation of the new government’s economic plan.

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    Geographies:Europe Portugal
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