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  • Catalog Icon

    Asia Economic Outlook: Cautious Optimism

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    We take stock of the key themes for Asia in 2015, including falling commodity and oil prices, uneven global growth, weak external demand, the Fed's policy rate normalization and the pace of implementation of structural reforms.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | State monthly activity indexes. March 2015

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    Upswing expected after transitory weakness in 1Q15. In March, activity increased in 47 states, but the pace of expansion decelerated in the Sunbelt, with the largest deceleration in New Mexico. Mining activity fell below trend in most states, while manufacturing, transportation, and utilities increased

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Chile | Food inflation will continue to decline during 2015

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    We observe an increased risk that food’s annual inflation in the local CPI will be subject to a substantial deceleration during the next months, which implies a lower inflationary incidence of 0.84% in the headline CPI –in relation to the one observed in March 2015. We maintain our forecast of an annual CPI inflation below 3% for 2015 end of period.

    Available in Spanish

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    Balearic Islands Outlook. First half 2015

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    The Balearic Islands economy is still picking up pace. Growth of 3.3% is forecast in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016, again above the national average. Around 38,000 jobs could be created up to late 2016, taking employment beyond the pre-crisis level.

    Available in Spanish

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    Canary Islands Outlook. First half 2015

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    The Canary Islands economy continues to gather pace. Growth of 3.3% is forecast in 2015 and 3.0% in 2016, once again ahead of the nationwide average. Around 60,000 more jobs could be created up to the end of 2016.

    Geographies: Canary Island

    Available in Spanish

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    U.S. | Trade Promotion Authority (TPA): Vital for Trade

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    TPA ensures transparency and improves labor and environmental standards of trade deals. Passage of TPA will determine success of trade deals under negotiation. Both Congress and administration stand to gain from TPA

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Infographics | The banking correspondent business model

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    Banking correspondents are non-financial commercial establishments that offer basic financial services under the name of a financial services provider, becoming access points to the formal financial system. This business model makes it sustainable for banks to focus on low-income clients with a cost-efficient access channel.

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    Colombia | Automotive Outlook 2015.

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    Car sales are expected to slow down to 290,000 and 305,000 units in 2015 and 2016, respectively, with a greater share of local assembled vehicles of total sales. The potential for growth in the sector in the medium term remains unchanged. We forecast an increase in the price of vehicles because of the exchange rate depreciation.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Extending access to the formal financial system: the banking correspondent business model

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    New ways of understanding banking, technological improvements, and regulation yield new means of interaction between customers and banks through outsourcing agreements. This paper provides the first harmonised database with information on the number of banking correspondents by country, which helps in measuring access to the formal financial system.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The global economy and China: Some key challenges ahead

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    Debt accumulation remains pervasive, with a clear focus on China, while very low inflation levels make the debt burden even heavier. Looking forward, it will be important to focus on the debt and disinflation dynamics including Asia, where China can be a key trigger point.

    Units:
    Geographies: China

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Three drivers of the U.S. demographic makeover

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    Unprecedented challenges to economic growth from slower population growth and increased life expectancy. Demographic paradigm creating a tradeoff between lower overall growth and policy intervention. Diversity playing a greater role in policymaking, business decisions and output

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Aragon Outlook. First half 2015

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    BBVA Research forecasts 2.8% growth in the regional economy in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016. This momentum will raise the number of people in work by a further 25,000 between 2015 and 2016.

    Geographies: Aragon

    Available in Spanish

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    The ECB commits the full implementation of measures

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    At today’s monetary policy meeting, ECB’s President Mario Draghi reiterated ECB’s focus on the full implementation of the monetary policy measures. In addition, more confidence on economic recovery was pointed out.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Eurozone | The recovery gathers momentum in the first quarter

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    The figures published in the last few weeks appear to show an acceleration in the recovery of the eurozone’s economy. Confidence indicators and, to a lesser extent, the first real indicators of 1Q15, are consistent with growth in activity, underpinned by the domestic fundamentals, particularly consumption, spurred on by low oil prices

    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Spain | Robust economic growth with a bias to the upside in the short term

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    The trend seen in the variables confirms a quarterly (QoQ) GDP growth of around 0.9%, which would entail an intensification in the rate of expansion from the 4Q14 rate of 0.7%. The uptick in activity again coincided with an acceleration in employment creation, which will probably lead to a marginal reduction in apparent labour productivity.

    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The AIIB: a little competition never hurts anyone

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    As the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) gains traction, US policymakers are reminded that they need to “step it up” in Asia. If it is run well, the AIIB has the potential to facilitate China’s economic rebalancing while simultaneously improving the economic outlook of emerging Asia.

    Units:
    Geographies: China

    Available in English

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    U.S. Monthly Economic Outlook April 2015

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    U.S. Monthly Economic Outlook conference call on Wednesday, April 15, 2015, at 10am Central Time

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    EAGLEs Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2015

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    The contribution of the Emerging World to global growth is bound to be even bigger than we had initially projected, due to recent updates in purchasing power parity estimates across the globe. There are now more countries included in our EAGLEs list. The new additions come mainly from Asia and the Middle East.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | FOMC Minutes: March 17-18th Meeting

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    Meeting-by Meeting Approach to Normalization Officially Underway. Rate hike in April unlikely, but statement may reveal whether or not all bets are off for June. FOMC strives for more flexibility in decision-making with meeting-by-meeting approach. Expectations are set for a September hike as the probability for June has fallen drastically

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Flows and Assets Report | First Quarter 2015

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    Divergent monetary policy paths and US dollar appreciation have​driven capital flows during the period. Our models suggest that flows moderated further and the re-allocation process ​is still​ alive. Global factors ​remain key drivers, but local factors are emerging. Flows will still adjust but more moderately than before. Russian assets recovered but risks remain.

    Available in English

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