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Mexico faces significant structural economic challenges, with informality standing out as one of the most complex to address. Although there have been efforts to understand and analyze informality from various perspectives, these efforts have little impact as they remain outside the debate and action of public policy.

There is still no clear indication of a severe slowdown in the labor market, though it has weakened more than it initially appears. The slower rate of job creation, coupled with frequent downward adjustments to monthly employment figures, suggests a labor market that remains robust but not excessively tight.

After a weak GDP growth of 0.4% in 2023, activity will grow 3.2% in 2024 due to the recovery of the agricultural sector, hydroelectric power generation and private consumption. Even so, reforms are needed to gain competitiveness and maintain a …

We will review our growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 once the reform of the judicial system is known, which could have significant impacts on investment

After 6 months in office, the government has made significant progress in improving the fiscal balance, which in turn resulted in a reduction of monetary issuance and a deceleration of inflation. The challenge now is to consolidate the fiscal s…

Output will grow 2,9% this year (previous forecast: 2,7%), supported by a new pension funds withdrawal. Sectors affected by weather anomalies in 2023 will recover and non-primary sectors too thanks to increased private spending. In 2025, once the impact of pension funds withdrawals is exhausted, growth would reach 2,7%.

Formal employment in Mexico continues decelerating, growing 2.2% in May 2024, 0.2 percentage points lower than the previous month. Job creation is expected to pick up in the third quarter but at a slower pace than in 2023.

GDP growth forecast for 2024 is raised to 2.5% thanks to the good performance of external demand, the increase in the labor force, and the execution of Recovery Plan funds. However, it will moderate to 2.1% in 2025, largely due to constraints i…

Colombia's economic growth will begin to accelerate gradually during the second half of the year. Domestic demand is expected to consolidate by 2025. Growth is projected at 1.8% in 2024 and 2.8% in 2025. Inflation will continue to decrease, ena…

We summarize the recent development of the Chinese economy and highlight the unbalanced economic structure. Risks include the housing market, geopolitics, deflation and unbalanced economic structure. We also analyze the ongoing fiscal and monet…

The committed actions against inflation are well-received. Foreign currency demand of residents prior to the March local election has reversed and foreigners’ inflow for Turkish assets has accelerated. Yet, lagging fiscal measures & macro-prudential policies on retailer spending keep challenges on inflation outlook.

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Our most recent publications

Mexico faces significant structural economic challenges, with informality standing out as one of the most complex to address. Although there have been efforts to understand and analyze informality from various perspectives, these efforts have little impact as they remain outside the debate and action of public policy.

In the face of increasing evidence of the consequences of human-caused climate change, inaction is not an option. Climate mitigation and adaptation policies must be further promoted, including appropriate incentives to finance investment needs of uncertain estimation.

The labor informality rate in Colombia is higher for men (58%) than for women (53%), unlike other countries in the region. However, in specific subgroups like educational level and rural areas, women are more informal. Policies should focus on …

Political events at the centre scene, in a year marked by key elections in many regions with two warlike conflicts with tragic consequences still underway, contrasts with the resilience of the global economy, which continues its very soft landi…

Climate investment needs depend on both the definition of what is needed and the reference scenario for climate change. All in all, for keeping “net zero” within the realm of possibility there is a funding gap to close by both public and, mainl…

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