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    Latin America Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    Growth will be low in LatAm in 2015 and 2016, at 0.2% and 1.1% respectively, below its potential (2.7%). Inflation is holding up, above central bank targets. All in all, the dilemmas are growing for central banks, except in Mexico

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico Real Estate Outlook First Half 2015

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    Housing prices are reflecting certain supply-side components more sharply, although demand fundamentals remain key. Families’ long-term expectations really do help us to gain a better insight into the dynamics of mortgage loan demand. Financial soundness has become a core theme within Infonavit’s strategy for 2015-19

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    Geographies:Mexico

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Iraq: On the brink of a political crisis favoring ISIS

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    Iraq is facing massive protests against corruption and the lack of public services since the end of July. Although most of them remained peaceful, they are still alive in Baghdad, Najaf, Basra and other southern cities. The PM al-Abadi has proposed a reform agenda. Some Shi’a figures are using the crisis to generate unrest and restore a presidential system led by PM Maliki

    Available in English

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    Spain Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    The speed of the Spanish economy's recovery peaked in the first half of 2015, although the likelihood of a slowdown in economic growth has incresed in the second semester. The structural changes observed in the world economy and announced innovations in economic policy could offset the lower momentum of the economy.

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    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Oil & Gas Industry Chartbook

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    In August, the price of crude oil dropped to its lowest level since March 2009 as the oil supply glut continues. Market sentiment is on the downside as indicated by the decline in futures prices. Last month, the total active rig count fell to its lowest level since January 2003; we expect a steady decline in crude oil production by early 2016

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    United States Economic Outlook Third Quarter 2015

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    Favorable outlook for developed markets but additional downside risks for growth in emerging markets, with a particular focus on China. First federal funds rate hike expected in September, but global pressures could delay liftoff until December. Lingering uncertainties on top of the slow pace of growth in 1Q15 have forced us to revised down 2015 growth from 2.9% to 2.5%

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    FOMC Minutes: July 28th – 29th Meeting

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    Committee in Preparation Talks for Impending First Rate Hike. Most FOMC members view downward pressures on inflation as transitory, but risks to the inflation outlook may outweigh labor market improvement for some doves. Global risks have diminished for the short-term & are thus unlikely to delay the first rate hike, though they may impact the future pace of rate increases

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Chile | Little room for manoeuvre: public expenditure growth in 2016 to be around 4.6%

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    The government released the structural variables for the 2016 Budget Law: potential GDP and long-term price of copper. As expected, both were revised downwards. With no full information, but assuming the target of a structural balance of -0.8% of GDP, we estimate a public expenditure growth in 2016 of 4.6%.

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    Geographies:Chile

    Available in Spanish

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    Brazil Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    We forecast GDP to drop 1.5% this year and to expand only 0.5% next year. The long-term potential growth of the Brazilian economy is around 2.2%, lower than previously estimated. The uncertainty about the fiscal adjustment, largely due to the political turmoil, undermines the prospects of a recovery in activity and leaves Brazil on the verge of losing its investment grade.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Measuring Latin America’s export dependency on China

    Document Number 15/26

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    In this paper we deploy an export dependency index to identify the sectors and countries in Latin America which are most exposed to fluctuations in Chinese demand.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia Latin America

    Available in English

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    Monitoring ECB balance sheet expansion (July 2015)

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    In July, the purchase programme involving both public and private assets slightly surpassed the stated monthly target of EUR60bn, with EUR61.3bn of assets acquired and still a clear bias in favour of purchasing public bonds (80%). There was no let-up in purchasing in the month as a result of a summer lull in issuance, as some members of the ECB had been expecting.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    China Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    China’s growth displayed some stabilizing signals in Q2. However, the recent stock market crash might impede the growth to bottom-out in Q3. Risks are still to the downside, the most significant of which is the stock market crash’s contagious effect to the financial system and the real economy.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Changing the Climate Game

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    The Clean Power Plan has both political and diplomatic benefits for the White House. Ambitious targets to reduce CO2 emissions will boost renewables. Banks should seize the opportunity in this new energy environment

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The global trade slowdown and the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP)

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    World trade loses momentum due to cyclical and structural reasons such as the change of growth model in China or the reduced impulse from Global Value Chains (GVCs). The major weight of trade flows and FDI between Europe and the US highlights that fostering market access and enhancing regulatory cooperation would have positive effects on bilateral and even on global trade

    Available in English

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    Europe Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2015

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    The euro area’s pace of recovery is holding up, despite some weakness among emerging markets and a more limited run in the euro’s depreciation. We expect a gradual upturn in inflation, although this will still be short of 2% in 2016, and that the ECB will keep up its rate of bond purchases until September next year

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    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Global Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2015

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    Global economic growth continues, but at a slightly slower rate than we expected. Emerging Markets face an uncertain scenario with lower demand from China and the approaching increase of Fed’s interest rates. China’s economy in the limelight: size, financial interconnections and potential contagion channels abroad.

    Geographies:Global

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Flows & Assets Report | Second Quarter 2015

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    Global reallocation from EM to DM now fueled by growth concerns and Chinese woes. Risk to Emerging Market flows are tilted to the downside if global recovery looses steam and/or the Chinese relapse spils-over. Global Exposure Risk to a possible Chinese financial impairment only relevant in the Banking system. Its size however, falls below a systemic case.

    Available in English

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    The digital transformation of the banking industry

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    Changing consumer habits and the new competitive environment are forcing banks to digitalise as a matter of urgency. We have identified three successive stages in a bank’s digitalisation process: responding to the new competition, technological adaptation and strategic positioning.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest July Update

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    ISIS continued to expand in the Middle East and North Africa in July, intensifying security problems in the region. Separatists and the Ukrainian forces reached a preliminary deal to include lighter weapons in the Minsk agreement, but reciprocal attacks still continued. Crucial gains have been achieved by the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen. East Asia and Europe remained calm

    Available in English

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    U.S.| State Monthly Activity Indexes

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    In June, activity increased in 42 states, but the pace of expansion decelerated nationwide, especially in the Sunbelt. The states which experienced a strong pickup in activity in June were mostly concentrated in the Northeast and the West.

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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