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    U.S. | Fair Winds Ahead: Wind Energy

    By ,

    Watch our video and read our article on wind energy. Efficiency gains and government support are behind the expansion of wind energy. Positive outlook due to technology and growing incentives to lower CO2 emissions. Still, uncertainty about Clean Power Plan and storage technologies could hinder the prospects for wind and other renewables.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Weekly podcast: 2Q GDP, manufacturing and consumer confidence

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    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of July 25, 2016

    Geographies:USA

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    U.S.| In Search of Potential GDP Conference Call

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    BBVA Research USA would like to invite you to our conference call on Thursday, July 28, at 10am (CDT). The presentation will address the future of U.S. potential GDP growth, present alternative and hypothetical scenarios for supply side factors of labor, capital, and technological growth. The call will be followed by a Q&A period.

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    Financial and fiscal shocks in the Great Recession and recovery of the Spanish economy

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    We present a new model to understand the effects of financial, fiscal, international trade, labour market and other shocks in the great recession and recovery of the Spanish economy. The model also allows us to simulate the effects of permanent and transitory changes in exogenous variables, in order to have an ex-ante evaluation of macroeconomic policies.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in English

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    U.S. | The energy mix: a balancing act

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    Natural gas is a vehicle towards renewables, but LNG supply shortfall to emerge in next decade. Policies such as Clean Power Plan accelerate growth of wind and solar. Shale still has key role as link between storage and long-term projects.

    Available in English

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    Further action likely in September

    By ,

    The ECB has left the monetary policy stance unchanged. The ECB needs more time to reassess the degree of policy accommodation. Unrelated to monetary policy, Draghi opens the possibility of a “public backstop” for NPL’s.

    Available in English

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    Turkey | A modest move as expected

    By , ,

    The Central Bank reduced the upper bound of its interest rate corridor 25bps further to 8.75% and kept the lower bound of the interest rate corridor and the 1-week repo constant at 7.25% and 7.50% respectively. The decision was in line with the analyst expectations which had declined from the previous 50bps to a 25bps reduction following the heightened political volatility

    Available in English

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    Access and availability of ICT in European households: a comparative study

    By , ,

    The spread of Internet access is a key aspect for explaining the changes in modern economies and societies. The services offered by the Internet contribute to growth and employment, as well as to productivity, savings (public and private) and consumers’ well-being.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | 2016 Presidential Election Chartbook

    By ,

    Favorability of 2016 election candidates is historically low. Economic and market-based indicators continue to suggest Democrat win in November, although geopolitical turmoil and volatility has reduced the lead for Democrats in our national vote-share model.

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    Chile | Service Exports: great potential with need of investment

    By ,

    The leaders of service exports around the world are Europeans and Asians, while South Americans represents a small portion of the world commerce with Chile loosing participation over the last few years. Australia and Canada are the best examples on how Chile could increase their service exports; specifically Chile has great potential in the tourism industry.

    Available in Spanish

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    Catalonia Economic Outlook. First half 2016

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    The economy of Catalonia will grow 2.9% in 2016 and 2.7% in 2017, creating 215,000 new jobs during this two-year period. Internal demand drives the recovery (private consumption and investment), supported by goods exports and, especially, tourism. But uncertainty increases.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain Catalonia

    Available in Catalan

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    Digital Economy Outlook. July 2016

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    In this issue we focus on: open banking: a regulatory perspective; e-banking in Spain: generational approach; and The Internet of Things: European regulation

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Peru: Digital context

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    Digital contents in Peru are well developed, although the country should improve ICT affordability and regulation issues.

    Units:
    Geographies:Peru

    Available in Spanish, English

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    China | Growth stabilizing in Q2

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    China’s 2016 Q2 GDP came out today at 6.7% y/y, slightly better than expectations (BBVA MICA model forecasting: 6.6% y/y) and flat with Q1 reading. Although both industrial production and retail sales improved from the previous month, FAI remained sluggish, in particular for investment by private firms. Meanwhile, credit supply surged significantly in June.

    Available in English

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    Eurozone | Economic Watch – July

    By , , , ,

    GDP growth in the Eurozone has returned in 2Q16, according to our estimates, to the moderate pace of the recovery of the last two years, following its strong upturn in the first quarter to 0.6% QoQ.

    Units:
    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Turkey | Still Robust GDP Growth in 2Q

    By , ,

    IP grew by 5.6% (WDA YoY) in May, beating the consensus estimate (4.1%). April-May production and demand side data pointed at a modest slowdown economic activity in 2Q16 especially in ex-auto items, partly confirming the earlier easing signals from the confidence indicators. We expect some moderation ahead but we maintain our 3.9% 2016 annual GDP growth forecast.

    Available in English

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    China | Private Investment Slowdown Marks the Start of China’s Long-awaited Deleveraging

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    China’s fixed asset investment (FAI) has significantly decelerated through May, in particular the private FAI. The private FAI slowdown is concentrated in the sectors with overcapacity and low profit growth; moreover, it is likely to usher in China’s deleveraging, which is imperative for the debt-laden corporate sector to restore its financial health.

    Available in English

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    Spain | Growth would held steady in 2Q16, beating expectations

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    The recovery of the Spanish economy continued during the first half of 2016. Available information for 2Q16 points at quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) having completed one year at around 0.8%. This stabilisation in the pace of expansion would give an upward bias to the growth envisaged in BBVA-Research’s baseline scenario for 2016 (2.7%).

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Basque Country Economic Outlook 2016

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    The economy of the Basque Country will grow 2.4% in 2016 and 2.5% in 2017, creating 37,000 new jobs during this two-year period. Internal demand drives the recovery, while exports of goods fail to show a firm trend , in a more uncertain context. Creating more and better employment remains as a challenge.

    Units:
    Geographies:Basque Country Spain

    Available in Basque, Spanish

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    The Hague Ruling is set to escalate tensions and later negotiations

    By , , ,

    On July 12th The Hague’s Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) announced its ruling on the territory dispute submitted by Philippines, which in essence rebukes almost all the China’s claims in the South China Sea. Beijing immediately rejected the ruling of the PCA and vowed to protect its historic and economic rights in its claimed water.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia China

    Available in English

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