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    Chile | Public investment still supporting domestic demand in April

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    Figures showed that fiscal revenues rose by 3.7% YoY while expenditures increased by 4.0% YoY. Capital expenditures expanded 11.5% YoY still supporting the slack in private investment. Finally, fiscal balance registered a surplus of USD3.3bn, the latter nonetheless seasonally driven by annual tax bill payments of economic agents in a context of declining copper revenues.

    Geographies:Chile

    Available in Spanish

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    Economic Impact of Historic Flooding in Houston

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    The economic impact of recent flooding could range between $210 and $560 million. Our estimates consider damage to cars and housing as well as lost value-added. Albeit significant, the impact will be lower than Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Allison.

    Available in English

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    U.S. Transitioning To An Environment That Rewards Productivity Over Growth

    By ,

    • The slow pace of economic growth since 2009 reflects the severity of the crisis and a structural transformation • Potential GDP growth will be lower based on demographics • Output gap will narrow in an environment of lower equilibrium unemployment, inflation and interest rates • Bold structural reforms are needed to boost potential economic growth

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    Financial Regulation Outlook. May 2015

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    This month we focus on: Basel updates progress in Basel III implementation, Europe's Bank Structural Reform, endorsing macroprudential policies, Capital Markets Union, the first six months of European banking supervision, the new resolution tools and liquidity provision and a Digital Single Market strategy for Europe.

    Available in English

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    Presentation “Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2015″

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    The Spanish economy continues to accelerate and face an improvement in its fundamentals, while the risks have still not materialised. Spain should take advantage of this situation by making progress in reforms that enable it to continue growing, even in less promising scenarios

    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Spain Economic Outlook. Second quarter 2015

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    The Spanish economy continues to accelerate its growth rate and improve its fundamentals, allowing to revise upwards the GDP growth forecast for 2015 to 3.0% and maintain the expected growth for 2016 (2.7%). This rate of growth could result on a net creation of around a million jobs at the end of 2016

    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | The Speed of Federal Funds Rate Normalization

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    The approaching liftoff in 2015 will signify policy normalization rather than tightening. The initial rate hike and the subsequent policy firming is expected to proceed with equal 25 basis points incremental changes in the Fed funds rate. The trajectory of the Fed funds rate path will incorporate 8 to 10 rate hikes by year-end 2017

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Fintech: changing the way we save and invest

    By ,

    Budgeting, portfolio management, and financial planning platforms are gaining momentum. Both beginning and sophisticated investors embrace these companies because of their affordable fees, simplicity, and user-friendly tools. Banks can incorporate some of these platforms in order to improve customer acquisition and increase fee income

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The dynamics of U.S. crude oil production

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    Hedging and debt have delayed the adjustment in production. However, production will eventually slowdown as a result of lower oil prices. Increasing rig productivity allows operators to mitigate risks. Despite a cyclical deceleration, crude oil production will remain strong over the long-run, driven by global demand and better technology

    Available in Spanish, English

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    ECB Minutes: 15 April meeting

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    ECB minutes of its 5 April meeting were released today. Governing Council (GC) members reaffirm their commitment to firmly and fully implement the ECB´s announced purchasing program. There was wide agreement that the APP is progressing smoothly and is having a positive impact. Some GC participants warned about the risk of growing complacency with fiscal reform.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Portugal: The economy is set to grow at around 2% in 2015

    By , , , ,

    Domestic demand will continue to be the key driver for growth, supported by the improved confidence of economic agents and the low oil price

    Geographies:Europe Portugal
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    U.S. | FOMC Minutes: April 28th – 29th Meeting

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    Fed Commits to Clear Communication on the Timing of Liftoff. We maintain our expectations for the first rate hike in September as minutes further reduce the likelihood of a June liftoff. Fed communication to remain clear with regard to their assessment of economic outlook and underscores the data dependency of normalization timing

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The Banking Union and the Spanish Financial System

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    Banking union has been crucial in reverting fragmentation. Bank lending positively affected by savings banks restructuring, banking union and ECB policies. New credit is growing and interest rates spreads are going down.

    Available in English

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    Funding in Resolution: the lender of last resort function in the new resolution framework

    By , ,

    In 2014, the resolution discussion was mainly focused on the Total Loss Absorbing Capacity (TLAC). The connection of this framework with the liquidity provision of failed banks has been uncharted territory that the FSB is planning to tackle in 2015. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the discussion on how to ensure liquidity in a resolutions process.

    Available in English

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    U.S. Economic Outlook Second Quarter 2015

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    Slower growth in emerging economies is offsetting moderation in the US and a firmer recovery in the Eurozone. Domestic consumption will continue to outweigh weak global demand, helping to drive stronger U.S. growth in 2015 despite a weak first quarter. Recent economic activity remain in support of a September Fed funds rate hike, with a gradual pace of increases thereafter

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Structural Reforms and the Spanish Recovery

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    Spain is finally recovering due to a combination of external and domestic factors. Although it is difficult to estimate their exact contribution, behind this recovery are the effects of structural reforms. To ensure a sustainable and inclusive growth it is key to continue this process in the future.

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    Monitoring ECB balance sheet expansion

    By , , , , , , ,

    The ECB's asset purchase programme is running according to the target set of EUR60bn a month. The initial impact on the financial markets has been larger than expected. The forcefulness with which the programme was launched, as well as the resolute commitment which the ECB has subsequently reiterated, are key to achieving the desired effects.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    India flirting with China: How far can it go?

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    This note offers our views on Modi’s visit to Xi Jinping, starting May 14th. We believe that while stronger bilateral economic cooperation would continue to drive the Modi-Xi dialogue, it would, nevertheless, be influenced by key geostrategic issues ranging from their recent diplomatic overtures in the region to the dynamics of newly founded multilateral development banks.

    Units:
    Geographies:Global Asia

    Available in English

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    Mexico’s monetary policy communication and money markets

    By , ,

    Central bank communication is becoming a key aspect of monetary policy. How much financial markets listen and, possibly, understand Banco de Mexico’s communication on its monetary policy stance should be a key consideration for the central bank to further modernize its monetary policy toolkit

    Available in English

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    Galicia Outlook. First half, 2015

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    Growth in the Galician economy continues to speed up. The pace of recovery will depend on the level to which the export sector is revived. Growth of 2.4% is forecast in 2015 and 2.7% in 2016, accompanied by the creation of 26,000 jobs.

    Available in Spanish

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