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  • Catalog Icon

    Extending access to the formal financial system: the banking correspondent business model

    By , ,

    New ways of understanding banking, technological improvements, and regulation yield new means of interaction between customers and banks through outsourcing agreements. This paper provides the first harmonised database with information on the number of banking correspondents by country, which helps in measuring access to the formal financial system.

    Available in English

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    The global economy and China: Some key challenges ahead

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    Debt accumulation remains pervasive, with a clear focus on China, while very low inflation levels make the debt burden even heavier. Looking forward, it will be important to focus on the debt and disinflation dynamics including Asia, where China can be a key trigger point.

    Units:
    Geographies: China

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Three drivers of the U.S. demographic makeover

    By ,

    Unprecedented challenges to economic growth from slower population growth and increased life expectancy. Demographic paradigm creating a tradeoff between lower overall growth and policy intervention. Diversity playing a greater role in policymaking, business decisions and output

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    Aragon Outlook. First half 2015

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    BBVA Research forecasts 2.8% growth in the regional economy in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016. This momentum will raise the number of people in work by a further 25,000 between 2015 and 2016.

    Geographies: Aragon

    Available in Spanish

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    The ECB commits the full implementation of measures

    By ,

    At today’s monetary policy meeting, ECB’s President Mario Draghi reiterated ECB’s focus on the full implementation of the monetary policy measures. In addition, more confidence on economic recovery was pointed out.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Eurozone | The recovery gathers momentum in the first quarter

    By , , , ,

    The figures published in the last few weeks appear to show an acceleration in the recovery of the eurozone’s economy. Confidence indicators and, to a lesser extent, the first real indicators of 1Q15, are consistent with growth in activity, underpinned by the domestic fundamentals, particularly consumption, spurred on by low oil prices

    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Spain | Robust economic growth with a bias to the upside in the short term

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    The trend seen in the variables confirms a quarterly (QoQ) GDP growth of around 0.9%, which would entail an intensification in the rate of expansion from the 4Q14 rate of 0.7%. The uptick in activity again coincided with an acceleration in employment creation, which will probably lead to a marginal reduction in apparent labour productivity.

    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The AIIB: a little competition never hurts anyone

    By ,

    As the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) gains traction, US policymakers are reminded that they need to “step it up” in Asia. If it is run well, the AIIB has the potential to facilitate China’s economic rebalancing while simultaneously improving the economic outlook of emerging Asia.

    Units:
    Geographies: China

    Available in English

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    U.S. Monthly Economic Outlook April 2015

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    U.S. Monthly Economic Outlook conference call on Wednesday, April 15, 2015, at 10am Central Time

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    EAGLEs Economic Outlook. Annual Report 2015

    By , , , ,

    The contribution of the Emerging World to global growth is bound to be even bigger than we had initially projected, due to recent updates in purchasing power parity estimates across the globe. There are now more countries included in our EAGLEs list. The new additions come mainly from Asia and the Middle East.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | FOMC Minutes: March 17-18th Meeting

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    Meeting-by Meeting Approach to Normalization Officially Underway. Rate hike in April unlikely, but statement may reveal whether or not all bets are off for June. FOMC strives for more flexibility in decision-making with meeting-by-meeting approach. Expectations are set for a September hike as the probability for June has fallen drastically

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Flows and Assets Report | First Quarter 2015

    By , , , , ,

    Divergent monetary policy paths and US dollar appreciation have​driven capital flows during the period. Our models suggest that flows moderated further and the re-allocation process ​is still​ alive. Global factors ​remain key drivers, but local factors are emerging. Flows will still adjust but more moderately than before. Russian assets recovered but risks remain.

    Available in English

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    The Iran deal: a positive step in the centrifuge-oil balance

    By ,

    The P5+1 countries and Iran announced a comprehensive action plan last week which should be completed before next June. The presented parameters mean a significant reduction on Iranian nuclear capacity and, even more important, an increased role for monitoring. In exchange for it, sanctions on Iran would be removed gradually. Uncertainty about the oil price impact remains.

    Available in English

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    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest March Update

    By ,

    The Russia-Ukraine crisis remained contained during March thanks to the Minsk II agreement, although the situation is still critical. ISIS’ threats spread into North Africa while international forces gained some ground in Syria and Iraq. Instability escalated in Yemen. Geopolitical tensions in East Asia stayed contained. Social unrest eased in Europe.

    Available in English

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    The U.S. Trade Balance: Then and Now

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    Total U.S. trade accounts for nearly 30% of GDP (net importer of goods but a net exporter of services). Nonpetroelum goods deficit has returned to the pre-crisis peak as global imbalances linger, yet we could see a petroleum goods surplus in the near future. Current and pending free trade agreements have the potential to boost global growth and keep imbalances in check

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Colombia | Real Estate Outlook 2015.

    By , , ,

    The analysis of the structural conditions of the housing market shows a high potential of the sector. We estimate that residential investment will grow on average 5.5% anually during 2015 and 2016. The moderation of proces in big cities will continue. Mortgage lending remains dynamic.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Are low long-term rates here to stay?

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    Low inflation and duration risks, and reduced monetary policy uncertainty are behind the negative term premium and compression in long to medium term premium spread. Downward pressure on long-term yields due to the supply-demand imbalance will remain, with many long-run structural factors to contribute

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    A new scenario for proxy war: Yemen

    By ,

    Yemen is in the grip of its most severe crisis in years, as the possibility of a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia to control the country is increasing after Saudi Arabia’s direct military intervention. The evolution of the situation in Yemen could greatly exacerbate regional tensions, triggering fragmentation and social unrest in the region.

    Available in English

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    Asia’s economic ties with Latam

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    China ruling trade relations and Japan investment but not for too long

    Available in English

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    Financial Regulation Outlook. March 2015

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    This month we focus on: Basel reviews the securitisation prudential framework. Turkish G20 Presidency.TLAC next steps: Quantitative Impact Study (QIS). EBA on Basel III Monitoring Exercise. EBA updates on future EU-wide stress test and Faster payments.

    Available in English

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