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    Outlook

    Banking Outlook. September 2016

    By

    1. Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector 2. Real estate exposure of the Spanish banking system 3. Analysis of impaired assets in Europe 4. European stress test: large differences by country 5. Implementation and effects of the regulatory reform 6. Open banking

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain Europe
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Presentation

    Digital Context Pacific Alliance. September 2016

    By

    The Pacific Alliance (PA) has a high position regarding Internet contents compared to LATAM. However, it has an improvement margin in terms of Internet affordability. Chile registers an advantageous position in all dimensions of the digitization index among the PA members. The home is the main place to access the Internet, although its importance varies between countries.

    Units:
    Geographies:Latin America
    Topics:Financial Inclusion

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Multimedia

    U.S. | Weekly podcast: FOMC decision, personal income and consumption

    By

    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of September 26, 2016. Special topic: FOMC September meeting decision

    Units:
    Geographies:USA
    Topics:Economic Analysis

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    Outlook

    Castile-La Mancha Economic Outlook

    By

    The economy of Castile-La Mancha will grow about 3.3% in 2016, but will slow to a 2.4% in 2017, creating around 42,000 new jobs during this two-year period. Internal demand drives the recovery, supported by exports, which are gaining momentum. Creating more and better employment continues to be the challenge.

    Units:
    Geographies:Castile-La Mancha Spain
    Topics:Regional Analysis Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish

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    FOMC Statement: September 20-21th Meeting

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    Despite uptick in number of dissenters FOMC remains on course for December. FOMC postpones rate hike, but opens door for increases in 2016. Projections and dissents underlie growing divergence of opinions of “new normal”. Minutes will shed light on pace of normalization, but December remains target for next hike

    Units:
    Geographies:USA
    Topics:Central Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    South China Sea: Stable but tenacious waters

    By , ,

    It’s been over two months since The Hague ruled that China does not have historic rights to the South China Sea. Tensions will continue to escalate further before a bilateral agreement is met, as other players step into the scene. Upside risks remain, particularly in neighboring countries.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia
    Topics:Regional Analysis Geostrategy

    Available in English

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    Outlook

    Peru Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By , , , , ,

    We stand by our GDP growth forecasts for the Peruvian economy of 3.6% in 2016 and 4.3% in 2017. Higher mining production and the implementation of large-scale infrastructure works will shore up the growth in GDP over the next few quarters.

    Units:
    Geographies:Latin America Peru
    Topics:Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Eurozone | Economic Watch – September

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    Economic recovery should continue in 3Q16 but at slower pace. Our estimates suggest quarterly GDP growth to decelerate slightly to +0.2% QoQ in 3Q16 -after a +0.3% QoQ figure in 2Q16-, in the back of still weak investment and lower contribution from net exports. Private consumption should remain as the main driver for GDP growth.

    Units:
    Geographies:Europe
    Topics:Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico | Our take on the MXN

    By ,

    The MXN’s rough ride may well calm somewhat after the US election, but the external balance points to continued underperformance in 2017

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Rising Libor is due to repricing and not distress

    By ,

    Libor rate rise pushed by regulation driven structural changes in the U.S. money market. The spill-over effects in other regions have not been huge. However, hereinafter, international markets have to get used to more expensive financing in USD, which poses an additional risk for bank´s profitability in the current context of ultra-low interest rates

    Units:
    Geographies:Global USA
    Topics:Financial scenarios

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Multimedia

    U.S. | Weekly podcast: Housing market trends, starts and sales

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    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of September 19, 2016. Special topic: Overall housing market trends

    Units:
    Geographies:USA
    Topics:Economic Analysis Real Estate

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    Presentation

    Colombia | The Colombian economy is adjusting in a challenging scenario

    By

    Short presentation for the webinar Agro-industry perspectives in Colombia. Short and medium term GDP growth. inflation, exchange rate, leading economic sectors.

    Units:
    Geographies:Colombia
    Topics:Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish

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    Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. September 2016

    By , , , , , ,

    The most recent inflation report from the Bank of Mexico notes that savings and external financing have slowed, in favour of more dynamic domestic sources. Mexico Bank indicators show the recovery of the credit card portfolio, although with less dynamism than other segments of consumer credit. Bank of Mexico updates auto loan indicators

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Presentation "Spain Economic Outlook. Third quarter 2016"

    By

    In Spain, positive bias is confirmed for 2016, but new elements in the scenario compel to reduce 2017 growth foresight.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain
    Topics:Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish, English

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    China | Economic activities stopped dropping but growth headwinds are still ahead

    By

    China’s August activity indicators came out today, most of which are better than the market expectations and the previous month readings. Our MICA model forecast for Q3 GDP is 6.7%. Altogether, economic activities seems reverting from the significant drop of the previous month, but growth headwinds are still ahead, as investment remains a main drag on growth.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia China
    Topics:Economic Analysis Regional Analysis

    Available in English

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    Spain | The economy maintains its cruising speed in Q3, although risks remain

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    The trend in the variables observed indicates that the recovery of the Spanish economy is continuing on from the start of the second half-year. With nearly 50% of the information available for 3Q16, the MICA-BBVA1 model estimates that quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) could string together five consecutive quarters at the level of 0.8%.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain
    Topics:Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Multimedia

    U.S. | Weekly podcast: Millennials, inflation and retail sales

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    Weekly economic update focusing on the data to be released the week of September 12, 2016. Special topic: Millennials

    Units:
    Geographies:USA
    Topics:Economic Analysis

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    ECB kept monetary policy stance unchanged

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    The ECB kept rates unchanged and reaffirmed the plan to run the APP to March 2017 or beyond if needed. The GC did not discuss any measures (including an extension of the APP). The GC tasked the relevant committees to evaluate the options that ensure a smooth implementation of its purchase programme. The Staff barely changed its projections over the forecast horizon

    Units:
    Geographies:Global Developed Economies Europe
    Topics:Central Banks Financial scenarios

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Presentation

    Colombia: Digital Context

    By ,

    Colombia occupies an important position in terms of digital content among Latin American countries. The proportion of people using the Internet daily has increased considerably since 2014. Cost is considered the main constraint on Internet access, although this perception is weaker among young people.

    Units:
    Geographies:Colombia
    Topics:Financial Inclusion Digital economy

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Presentation

    Colombia Economic Outlook. Third Quarter 2016

    By , , , ,

    A gradual and well-ordered slowdown of the economy continues, reducing the macroeconomic imbalances. Macroeconomic vulnerabilities have diminished, though they have not disappeared. Market volatility in the wake of Brexit was offset by an expected more accommodating tone on the part of developed economies' central banks.

    Units:
    Geographies:Colombia
    Topics:Economic Analysis

    Available in Spanish, English

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