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    The economic consequences of Brexit

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    The UK has decided to exit the European Union in a referendum with a 52%-48% margin, and a participation rate of 72%. Prime Minister (PM) Cameron has resigned and will remain in charge until October, when the Conservative Party will choose its next leader. This note and the attached presentation look at the economic consequences of Brexit.

    Available in English

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    U.S. | Running on fumes: remaining gap in Beveridge Curve a matter of structural forces

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    Handful of labor market indicators suggest cyclical expansion losing steam. Matching efficiency, while improving, has failed to recover to pre-crisis levels. More widely available credit and targeted fiscal policy could close the gap. Empowering startup and small business is an available option to policy makers and banks

    Geographies:USA

    Available in English

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    Chile: Digital context

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    Chile’s digital status is similar to some developed countries, such as Spain and Luxembourg. Increasing number of people are using internet and with higher frequency. Mobile devices are gaining momentum to access internet. High cost is the main barrier to access internet for the 48% of households without internet, particularly for younger ones.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Turkey | The fine tuning is reaching its limits

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    The Central Bank of Republic of Turkey reduced the upper bound of its interest rate corridor 50bps further to 9%, and kept the lower bound of the interest rate corridor and the 1-week repo rate constant at 7.25% and 7.50%, respectively. The marked fall in inflation was again the main argument behind the easing.

    Units:
    Geographies:Turkey

    Available in English

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    Banking Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

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    Trends and developments in the Spanish banking sector. New Circular on analysis and coverage of credit risk. Globalisation and the impact of regulation on global banks. Update on MREL and TLAC. Regulation of digital consumer credit.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico Migration Outlook First Half 2016

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    12.2 million Mexican immigrants in the United States in 2015: Has the period of zero net migration come to an end? DACA 2012-2015: Benefits in terms of employment, social integration, educational & financial inclusion for dreamers, but without a path to citizenship. In localities with medium, high & very high migratory intensity, minors play a greater role in working life

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Migration

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | Oil Price Outlook. June 2016

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    U.S. production continues to adjust. Further bankruptcies and declining investment. Oversupply has eased. Sustained demand growth, particularly in emerging markets

    Available in English

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    China | Resilient growth amid policy fine-tuning

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    Our monthly GDP model forecast for Q2 GDP increased to 6.6% y/y from its previous projection of 6.4% y/y based on May data. Economic activity indicators appeared to be resilient despite the authorities’ policy fine-tuning on concerns of rising risks. There is no further dip in most activity indicators, except for FAI. Risks to our 2016 GDP growth forecasts remain neutral.

    Available in English

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    Spain | High growth in 2Q16, but with signs of a slowdown

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    Economic recovery in Spain Continues at the end of the first semester. With About 50% of the information available for 2Q16, BBVA Research estimates quarterly GDP growth (QoQ) of 0.7%. The Spanish economy will continue to grow, reaching an annual average rate of 2.7% in the next biennium.

    Units:
    Geographies:Spain

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Country Risk Report. Second Quarter 2016

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    Argentina was upgraded by the three agencies after its return to the bond markets. Ireland was upgraded by Moody’s. Fitch downgraded Brazil and upgraded Hungary. The market pressure (downgrades/upgrades) has stabilized after a calmed quarter. Turkey, Chile, Colombia, China and Malaysia still on the spotlight.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Digital Economy Outlook. June 2016

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    In this issue we focus on: Who are the RegTechs?: characterisation of FinTech companies focused on regulatory issues; eIDAS: new framework for electronic identification and e-signatures in Europe; and open data: big data to better serve the citizens

    Geographies:Global Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Inflation persistence in Latin America

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    Inflation persistence will be a problem mainly in Argentina, but also in Brazil, Colombia and Uruguay, at least if there is no change in the conduct of monetary policy or in indexation mechanisms. In Chile, Mexico and Peru, persistence will likely play a less relevant role in the future dynamics of inflation.

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Latin America Economic Outlook. Second Quarter 2016

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    Latin American GDP will contract by 1.1% in 2016, badly hampered by Brazil, which will again show a significant (3%) In contrast, the countries of the Pacific Alliance will continue to grow at around 2.5% in the two-year period 2016-2017. Regional growth will recover to 1.7% in 2017, driven by the external sector and investment.

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

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    The European and Spanish Economic Outlook: A Less Cloudy Global Scenario?

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    The global economic scenario has improved in the past three months, but growth is still weak, and vulnerable to several risks. In Spain, data on activity lend an upward bias to our growth forecast for 2016, while increased uncertainty gives a downward bias for 2017. Uncertainties make it more necessary to push for an ambitious programme of reforms in Europe and Spain.

    Available in English

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    Mexico: Digital Context

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    Digital scenario. Demand side. Supply side. Regulation side.

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest May Update 2016

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    Ramadan has started, accompanied by a high risk of ISIS attacks across the Muslim world. The Group is taking that period as an opportunity to reorient its. Russian air operations in Syria greatly escalated once again during the month. The EU-Turkey refugee deal is being successfully implemented, easing social tensions in Europe.

    Available in English

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    Madrid Economic Outlook. First half 2016

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    The economy of Madrid will grow 2.9% in 2016 and 3.0% in 2017, creating around 150,000 new jobs during this two-year period. Internal demand drives the recovery, supported by exports, in particular services, although within an environment of greater uncertainty. Creating more and better employment continues to be the challenge.

    Units:
    Geographies:Madrid Spain

    Available in Spanish

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    U.S. | In search of potential GDP

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    Potential GDP growth has slowed to 1.8% as a result of weaker demographics, lower productivity growth & slower capital accum. If current trends do not reverse & policymakers continue kicking the can, potential GDP growth could slow down to 1.2%. However, a rebound in productivity growth & policies to boost working age population could lift potential GDP growth up to 2.7%

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

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    U.S. | A sticky situation for banks, but is it really that bad?

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    The direct exposure of commercial banks to the O&G downturn is relatively small. Large regional banks in energy-rich states are more exposed to O&G loans. Risks to small regional banks stem from second round effects. The downturn will affect commercial banks’ profitability, but not overall financial stability

    Geographies:USA
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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    Mexico | Monthly Report on Banking and the Financial System. June 2016

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    Signs of a revival in foreign currency borrowing by Mexican companies. The Foundation for Financial Studies (FUNDEF, for its Spanish acronym) publishes a study on the rise and development of credit cards in Mexico and Spain. Peso under pressure from renewed concerns about the global cycle and increased probability of a rate hike

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Banks

    Available in Spanish, English

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