• Catalog Icon

    Global Economic Outlook. First quarter 2016

    By

    Global outlook is fragile and shows high uncertainty and vulnerabilities. The margin of maneuver of the economic policies seems little to handle the balance of risks. The transition process in China from industry to services will continue to be in the spotlight.

    Geographies:Global

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    Europe Economic Outlook. First quarter 2016

    By , ,

    The euro area’s economy will grow by 1.8% in 2016 in a context of very low inflation and intensifying risks, which this time are of a more political – or geopolitical – than economic nature. In 2017, if the tensions disappear, the region could continue closing the output gap and grow around 2%.

    Units:
    Geographies:Europe

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    UK’s MREL proposal: alignment with TLAC in one ratio

    By ,

    On 11 December 2015, the Bank of England published its approach on setting the MREL for all UK banks, building societies and certain investment firms. The consultation is open for comments until 11 March 2016. This analysis will provide a summary of the proposal, with a focus on an important feature of the document: the first implementation of the FSB's TLAC in Europe.

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon

    Colombia | Trends and Long-term Outlook for Energy Supply and Demand

    By

    This document describes how the Colombian economy has become more dependent on fuel, electricity and natural gas for its operation. Colombia will have major changes in the coming years in its energy matrix, with a higher dependency on international markets to meet its natural gas and fuel demand.

    Available in Spanish

    Catalog Icon

    Monitoring of the expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet (January 2016)

    By , ,

    In January, the asset purchase programme (APP), which includes public and private assets, exceeded the monthly objective of €60 billion, with €62.4 billion being acquired, following a significant reduction in December. The ECB opened the door to further measures in March, but the fact is that the central bank has less and less margin for maneuver and effective action

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    U.S. Recession Probability Rises to 25%

    By

    U.S. has a 25% probability of going into a recession in the next 12 months, based on our estimate. Our model balances factors from financial markets and the manufacturing sector. Deteriorating profits of S&P 500 companies may reflect a weakening global economy

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    Hong Kong | Will the city economy abandon its decades-old peg to the USD?

    By ,

    A number of hedge funds have shifted their attention to Hong Kong Dollar (HKD), speculating on the possibility of the currency abandoning its decades-old peg to the USD. It has led the HKD to soften against the USD and raised the interbank interest rate. However, we believe that HKD de-pegging is an unlikely scenario for a number of reasons.

    Units:
    Geographies:Asia China

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon

    Transmission of monetary policy in the euro zone, monitoring via a synthetic indicator

    By ,

    The transmission of monetary policy is a key element which the ECB monitors in order to assess how the monetary policies it has set in motion are being transferred to the real economy. The smooth functioning of this mechanism is a necessary condition for achieving the ECB's ultimate objective of price stability.

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    So far, a tale of macro stability but still moderate growth: what is the outlook?

    By

    A structural outlook of the Mexican economy: a journey trough strength and weaknesses. Recent developments: growth, markets, vulnerabilities. Second generation of economic reforms.

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon

    Mexico | Remittances reached US$24.77 billion in 2015, 4.8% up on the previous year

    By ,

    The total inflow of remittances to Mexico grew by 4.8% in 2015 to US$24.77 billion. In December 2015 remittances fell by 2.1% compared with the same month of 2014, with a inflow of US$2.19 billion, bringing an end to a period of ten consecutive months of growth

    Units:
    Geographies:Mexico
    Topics:Migration

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    Geo-World: Conflict & Social Unrest January Update

    By ,

    Geopolitical conflicts have become one of the main threats to world stability and will continue to be challenging during 2016. The Syrian war is far from solved despite the Geneva talks. ISIS continued spreading its regional campaign. Russia showed no sign of making peace in Ukraine. New health crisis arose with the spread of the Zika virus.

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon

    Latin America Economic Outlook. Fourth quarter 2015

    By

    Latam moves at two-speeds, with the Pacific Alliance growing 2.4% in 2015-16 and Brazil in recession, weighing down Mercosur. The exchange rates have depreciated against the volatility in markets as a result of doubts about China. Given the high inflation, some central banks have tightened monetary policy.

    Geographies:Latin America

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    Chile | Although fiscal deficit closed at 2.2% in 2015, room for maneuver will narrow

    By , , ,

    Due to positive surprises in non-cyclical revenues (related to one-timers in both tax reform and anti-trust fines) and an under-execution in government investment, effective fiscal deficit reaches a 2.2% of GDP in 2015 while structural balance reaches a deficit at 0.3% of GDP, below of government projection in September 2015.

    Units:
    Geographies:Chile

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    Heterogeneity and dissemination of the digital economy: the case of Spain

    By ,

    The study of the process of this phenomenon can be conducted on either the supply or the demand side. On the supply side, innovation is one of the main pillars underpinning economic growth in countries (Schumpeter,1910; Romer, 1995). On the demand side, there is an abundance of literature, that develops the theories of technological dissemination (Bass, 1964; Rogers, 1995)

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    Financial Regulation Outlook. February 2016

    By

    This month we focus on: Council´s work programme, SRB priorities, SSM supervisory priorities, Maximum Distributable Amount (MDA), Capital Markets Union, Securitisation, European Deposit Insurance Scheme (EDIS), Europe’s financial transactions tax, Other Systemically Important Institutions in Europe y AML and identity verification.

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon

    Resolution regimes in Latin America

    By , ,

    Latin America has ample experience in dealing with banking and financial crises. As a result of this the region has developed bank resolution regimes whose main goal is to deal with failures in an orderly way. The aim of this note is to analyse and describe the resolution regimes in Latin America and to compare their resolution tools to those of the FSB's Key Attributes.

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon

    FOMC Statement: January 26th – 27th Meeting

    By

    Dovish Twist Setting the Stage for Potential Downshift in Fed’s Policy Plans. Statement highlights economic vulnerability but FOMC still downplaying inflation concerns. Members likely to reduce policy path expectations in revised projections to come in March. We continue to expect only two additional increases in 2016, closing out the year at 1.0%

    Geographies:USA

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    Monitoring the expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet (December 2015)

    By , , , ,

    In December, the asset purchasing programme failed to reach its monthly target of EUR60bn, and came in at EUR50.2bn. In spite of this decline in purchases, this allowed the average since the programme began in March 2015 to reach EUR60bn. The ECB opened the door to more measures in March, although the ECB’s room for manoeuvre is increasingly limited

    Available in Spanish, English

    Catalog Icon

    U.S. | Oil Price Outlook

    By , , , ,

    Market fundamentals are behind oil price drop. Further declines are likely. We expect a modest rebound in 2H16-2017. Long-run equilibrium price around $60/bbl. Structural trends limit upside risks.

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon

    China | A tale of two markets for the redback

    By ,

    Chinese financial turmoil has thrown the RMB exchange rate under the spotlight. In particular, the gap between RMB exchange rates in its onshore (CNY) and offshore (CNH) markets reached the historical high. This has motivated us to introduce this unique phenomenon of “one currency, two markets” of the RMB, and investigate the relationship between the two exchange rates.

    Available in English

    Catalog Icon
    Flash
    Forecast »
    Spanish banks data
    Multimedia
    Catalog Icon
    Press Articles