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Bank deposits in July maintained the trend observed during the last two months. The balance of the bank's traditional deposits was lower in July compared to the previous month, both in its demand and in its term segments, in real terms.
After a significant deterioration in consumption due to the journey of protests that took place in some cities, we see an increase in consumption. In the celebration of the day of love and friendship in the country, the recovery of the restaurant, clothing and fuel sectors is highlighted.
We expect Banxico to cut the policy rate by 25bp to 4.25%. We now think that Banxico will move in 25bp steps from here until the policy rate reaches 3.0% (now in May 2021).
Castile and Leon's GDP could fall by 10.6% in 2020 and grow by 6.0% in 2021. 27,500 jobs could be destroyed. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous in the first half of the year, as is the recovery. Public policies make it possible to reduce job destruction. But the risks are still present
At the start of the COVID-19 crisis the Spanish public pensions system had already suffered from a chronic deficit. Since 2011 it has exhibited an imbalance, which amounted to around EUR 18 billion—1.4% of GDP—in 2019. There is little doubt that this economic crisis will be the most intense since World War II.