Forecasts
In this section, you will find forecasts by year from our economic analyses. Select the geography for which you wish to see data, or select data for "Commodities".
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Eurozone
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Mexico
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Spain
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Türkiye
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Argentina
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Colombia
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China
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Peru
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Uruguay
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USA
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Commodities
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Eurozone
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Mexico
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Spain
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Türkiye
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Argentina
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Colombia
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China
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Peru
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Uruguay
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USA
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Commodities
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| GDP (YoY, %) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| ECB interest rate (%, eop) |
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| ECB interest rate (%, avg) |
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| 10y Bund yield (%, eop) |
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| 10y Bund yield (%, avg) |
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| USD/EUR (level, eop) |
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| USD/EUR (level, avg) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (YoY, %) | 5.90 | 3.43 | 0.45 | Neutral | 0.65 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 4.96 | 9.20 | 3.78 | Neutral | 2.38 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 2.59 | 8.38 | 5.58 | Neutral | 2.82 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| ECB interest rate (%, eop) | 0.00 | 2.50 | 4.50 | Neutral | 4.00 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| ECB interest rate (%, avg) | 0.00 | 0.73 | 3.90 | Neutral | 4.40 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| 10y Bund yield (%, eop) | -0.31 | 2.13 | 2.70 | To the downside | 2.55 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| 10y Bund yield (%, avg) | -0.31 | 1.19 | 2.51 | To the downside | 2.62 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| USD/EUR (level, eop) | 1.07 | 1.06 | 1.07 | Neutral | 1.12 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
| USD/EUR (level, avg) | 1.18 | 1.05 | 1.08 | Neutral | 1.10 | Neutral | nov 20, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Monetary policy rate (%, eop) |
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| MXN/USD (level, eop) |
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| 10y bond (M10, %, eop) |
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| Fiscal balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 6.10 | 3.90 | 3.20 | Neutral | 2.60 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) | 4.30 | 3.70 | 3.50 | Neutral | 3.20 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 7.40 | 7.80 | 4.60 | Neutral | 3.40 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| Monetary policy rate (%, eop) | 5.50 | 10.50 | 11.25 | Neutral | 8.25 | To the upside | sep 28, 2023 |
| MXN/USD (level, eop) | 20.90 | 19.60 | 18.00 | Neutral | 18.80 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| 10y bond (M10, %, eop) | 7.60 | 9.00 | 9.20 | Neutral | 8.40 | To the upside | sep 28, 2023 |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -2.80 | -3.20 | -3.30 | Neutral | -4.90 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -0.70 | -1.30 | -1.30 | Neutral | -1.30 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| 10y bond (%, eop) |
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| 10y bond (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| Employment growth (%yoy, avg) |
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| Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 6.40 | 5.80 | 2.40 | Neutral | 1.50 | To the downside | nov 24, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 5.80 | 5.70 | 4.30 | Neutral | 3.40 | To the downside | nov 24, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 3.10 | 8.40 | 3.70 | Neutral | 3.50 | Neutral | nov 24, 2023 |
| 10y bond (%, eop) | 0.42 | 3.18 | 3.80 | Neutral | 3.74 | Neutral | nov 24, 2023 |
| 10y bond (%, avg) | 0.36 | 2.22 | 3.55 | Neutral | 3.78 | Neutral | nov 24, 2023 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -6.60 | -4.70 | -4.10 | Neutral | -3.70 | Neutral | nov 24, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 0.70 | 0.70 | 2.80 | Neutral | 2.90 | Neutral | nov 24, 2023 |
| Employment growth (%yoy, avg) | 7.10 | 3.70 | 3.10 | Neutral | 1.90 | To the downside | nov 24, 2023 |
| Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) | 14.80 | 12.90 | 12.20 | Neutral | 11.80 | To the upside | nov 24, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| Foreign trade balance (% GDP) |
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| Unemployment rate (%, eop) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 11.40 | 5.50 | 4.50 | Neutral | 3.50 | Neutral | nov 17, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 36.10 | 64.30 | 68.00 | To the downside | 45.00 | Neutral | nov 17, 2023 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -2.70 | -0.90 | -5.50 | To the upside | -6.50 | Neutral | nov 17, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -0.90 | -5.40 | -4.40 | To the downside | -3.20 | To the downside | nov 17, 2023 |
| Foreign trade balance (% GDP) | -5.70 | -12.10 | -10.60 | To the downside | -9.70 | To the downside | nov 17, 2023 |
| Unemployment rate (%, eop) | 12.00 | 10.50 | 9.70 | Neutral | 10.30 | Neutral | nov 17, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| ARS/USD (level, eop) |
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| ARS/USD (level, avg) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 10.70 | 5.00 | -3.50 | To the upside | -2.50 | To the downside | nov 09, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 50.90 | 94.80 | 200.00 | To the upside | 155.00 | To the upside | nov 09, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 48.40 | 72.40 | 133.60 | To the upside | 235.30 | To the upside | nov 09, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 36.70 | 75.00 | 144.00 | To the upside | 60.00 | To the upside | nov 09, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 36.90 | 58.70 | 105.60 | To the upside | 87.00 | To the upside | nov 09, 2023 |
| Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -3.00 | -2.40 | -2.80 | To the downside | -1.00 | Neutral | nov 09, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 1.40 | -0.70 | -3.60 | Neutral | -1.00 | To the upside | nov 09, 2023 |
| ARS/USD (level, eop) | 101.90 | 172.90 | 630.00 | To the upside | 1,493.00 | To the upside | nov 09, 2023 |
| ARS/USD (level, avg) | 95.10 | 130.70 | 300.70 | To the upside | 1,139.40 | To the upside | nov 09, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| COP/USD (level, eop) |
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| COP/USD (level, avg) |
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| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] |
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| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 11.00 | 7.30 | 1.20 | Neutral | 1.50 | Neutral | oct 03, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 5.60 | 13.10 | 9.70 | Neutral | 5.40 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 3.50 | 10.20 | 11.80 | Neutral | 7.20 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 3.00 | 12.00 | 12.50 | Neutral | 7.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 2.00 | 7.88 | 13.08 | Neutral | 9.33 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -7.00 | -5.30 | -4.00 | Neutral | -4.40 | Neutral | oct 03, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -5.70 | -6.20 | -3.70 | Neutral | -3.90 | Neutral | oct 03, 2023 |
| COP/USD (level, eop) | 3,968.00 | 4,788.00 | 4,240.00 | Neutral | 4,450.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| COP/USD (level, avg) | 3,744.00 | 4,256.00 | 4,358.60 | Neutral | 4,377.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] | 14.40 | 20.70 | -11.40 | Neutral | 5.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] | 1.40 | 13.70 | 2.40 | Neutral | 0.40 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| CNY/USD (level, eop) |
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| CNY/USD (level, avg) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 8.10 | 3.00 | 5.20 | Neutral | 4.40 | To the upside | nov 10, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 1.50 | 1.80 | 0.00 | To the downside | 2.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 0.90 | 2.00 | 0.40 | Neutral | 2.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 3.75 | 3.65 | 3.35 | To the upside | 3.35 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 3.80 | 3.70 | 3.50 | Neutral | 3.40 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -5.20 | -5.00 | -5.00 | To the upside | -4.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 2.00 | 2.20 | 1.50 | Neutral | 1.20 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| CNY/USD (level, eop) | 6.36 | 6.90 | 7.30 | Neutral | 6.90 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
| CNY/USD (level, avg) | 6.45 | 6.73 | 7.10 | Neutral | 7.00 | Neutral | nov 10, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| 10y bond (%, eop) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| PEN/USD (level, eop) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 13.30 | 2.70 | 0.40 | To the downside | 2.30 | To the downside | oct 31, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 6.40 | 8.50 | 4.10 | To the downside | 2.80 | Neutral | oct 31, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 2.50 | 7.50 | 6.75 | To the downside | 5.25 | To the downside | oct 31, 2023 |
| 10y bond (%, eop) | 6.15 | 7.83 | 7.40 | Neutral | 7.20 | Neutral | oct 31, 2023 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -2.50 | -1.70 | -2.70 | To the downside | -2.70 | To the downside | oct 31, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -2.20 | -4.00 | -1.20 | To the upside | -1.00 | To the upside | oct 31, 2023 |
| PEN/USD (level, eop) | 4.04 | 3.83 | 3.82 | Neutral | 3.88 | Neutral | oct 31, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, eop) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
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| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
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| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
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| UYU/USD (level, eop) |
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| UYU/USD (level, avg) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 5.30 | 4.90 | 0.90 | To the downside | 2.30 | To the upside | oct 04, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 8.00 | 8.30 | 5.70 | To the downside | 6.40 | To the downside | oct 04, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 7.70 | 9.10 | 6.00 | To the downside | 6.10 | To the downside | oct 04, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 5.80 | 11.50 | 10.00 | To the downside | 8.00 | To the downside | oct 04, 2023 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 4.90 | 9.30 | 10.80 | To the downside | 9.10 | To the downside | oct 04, 2023 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -3.90 | -3.40 | -3.60 | To the downside | -2.90 | To the upside | oct 04, 2023 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -2.50 | -3.20 | -3.20 | Neutral | -2.80 | To the upside | oct 04, 2023 |
| UYU/USD (level, eop) | 44.30 | 38.90 | 39.70 | To the downside | 42.30 | To the downside | oct 04, 2023 |
| UYU/USD (level, avg) | 43.60 | 41.20 | 38.80 | To the downside | 41.10 | To the downside | oct 04, 2023 |
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| GDP (%) |
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| Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) |
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| Inflation (%, avg) |
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| Fed interest rate (%, eop) |
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| Fed interest rate (%, avg) |
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| 10y T bond (%, eop) |
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| 10y T bond (%, avg) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| GDP (%) | 5.90 | 2.10 | 2.30 | Neutral | 1.50 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) | 6.80 | 7.10 | 2.90 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 4.70 | 8.00 | 4.10 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | sep 28, 2023 |
| Fed interest rate (%, eop) | 0.25 | 4.50 | 5.50 | Neutral | 4.75 | Neutral | nov 08, 2023 |
| Fed interest rate (%, avg) | 0.25 | 2.02 | 5.23 | Neutral | 5.25 | Neutral | nov 08, 2023 |
| 10y T bond (%, eop) | 1.50 | 3.60 | 4.80 | Neutral | 4.50 | Neutral | nov 08, 2023 |
| 10y T bond (%, avg) | 1.40 | 3.00 | 4.00 | Neutral | 4.70 | Neutral | nov 08, 2023 |
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | FORECAST |
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| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
| Brent Oil price (USD/b) Year avg | 71.10 | 99.10 | 83.20 | To the upside | 84.80 | To the upside | oct 03, 2023 |
| Copper price (¢USD/lb.) Year avg | 422.00 | 400.00 | 386.00 | Neutral | 377.00 | Neutral | oct 05, 2023 |
| Soybean price (USD/ton) Year avg | 505.16 | 569.60 | 527.79 | To the downside | 486.35 | Neutral | oct 04, 2023 |
