Forecasts
In this section, you will find forecasts by year from our economic analyses. Select the geography for which you wish to see data, or select data for "Commodities".
-
Eurozone
-
Mexico
-
Spain
-
Türkiye
-
Argentina
-
Colombia
-
China
-
Peru
-
Uruguay
-
USA
-
Commodities
-
Eurozone
-
Mexico
-
Spain
-
Türkiye
-
Argentina
-
Colombia
-
China
-
Peru
-
Uruguay
-
USA
-
Commodities
|
---|
GDP (YoY, %) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Inflation (%, avg) |
---|
ECB interest rate (%, eop) |
---|
ECB interest rate (%, avg) |
---|
10y Bund yield (%, eop) |
---|
10y Bund yield (%, avg) |
---|
USD/EUR (level, eop) |
---|
USD/EUR (level, avg) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (YoY, %) | 3.43 | 0.51 | 0.72 | Neutral | 1.45 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 9.20 | 2.93 | 2.47 | Neutral | 1.97 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
Inflation (%, avg) | 8.38 | 5.42 | 2.30 | Neutral | 2.03 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
ECB interest rate (%, eop) | 2.50 | 4.50 | 3.75 | Neutral | 2.75 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
ECB interest rate (%, avg) | 0.73 | 3.90 | 4.25 | Neutral | 3.29 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
10y Bund yield (%, eop) | 2.13 | 2.11 | 2.30 | Neutral | 2.20 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
10y Bund yield (%, avg) | 1.19 | 2.46 | 2.35 | Neutral | 2.25 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
USD/EUR (level, eop) | 1.06 | 1.09 | 1.11 | Neutral | 1.16 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
USD/EUR (level, avg) | 1.05 | 1.08 | 1.09 | Neutral | 1.14 | Neutral | mar 05, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Monetary policy rate (%, eop) |
---|
MXN/USD (level, eop) |
---|
10y bond (M10, %, eop) |
---|
Fiscal balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 3.90 | 3.20 | 2.50 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) | 3.70 | 3.00 | 2.80 | Neutral | 3.20 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 7.80 | 4.70 | 3.90 | Neutral | 3.50 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Monetary policy rate (%, eop) | 10.50 | 11.25 | 9.25 | Neutral | 7.25 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
MXN/USD (level, eop) | 19.60 | 17.20 | 18.20 | To the downside | 18.60 | To the downside | mar 13, 2024 |
10y bond (M10, %, eop) | 9.00 | 9.00 | 8.70 | Neutral | 7.90 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -3.20 | -3.30 | -4.90 | Neutral | -3.00 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -1.30 | -0.50 | -0.70 | Neutral | -0.70 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Inflation (%, avg) |
---|
10y bond (%, eop) |
---|
10y bond (%, avg) |
---|
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Employment growth (%yoy, avg) |
---|
Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 5.80 | 2.50 | 2.10 | Neutral | 2.00 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 6.60 | 3.30 | 3.00 | Neutral | 2.10 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
Inflation (%, avg) | 8.40 | 3.50 | 3.10 | Neutral | 2.30 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
10y bond (%, eop) | 3.18 | 3.09 | 3.40 | Neutral | 3.45 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
10y bond (%, avg) | 2.22 | 3.48 | 3.35 | Neutral | 3.44 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -4.70 | -4.00 | -3.60 | Neutral | -2.90 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 0.70 | 2.80 | 3.20 | Neutral | 2.80 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
Employment growth (%yoy, avg) | 3.70 | 3.20 | 2.60 | Neutral | 1.80 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) | 12.90 | 12.10 | 11.40 | Neutral | 10.90 | Neutral | mar 06, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
USD/TRY (end of period) |
---|
EUR/TRY (end of period) |
---|
1 week repo rate (policy rate) |
---|
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Foreign trade balance (% GDP) |
---|
Unemployment rate (%, eop) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 5.50 | 4.50 | 3.50 | To the downside | 3.50 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 64.30 | 64.80 | 45.00 | Neutral | 25.00 | To the downside | mar 11, 2024 |
USD/TRY (end of period) | 18.70 | 29.44 | 42.00 | Neutral | 45.50 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
EUR/TRY (end of period) | 19.93 | 32.57 | 46.61 | Neutral | 52.80 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
1 week repo rate (policy rate) | 9.00 | 42.50 | 45.00 | To the downside | 30.00 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -0.90 | -5.20 | -5.20 | Neutral | -3.60 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -5.40 | -4.00 | -2.00 | To the downside | -2.40 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
Foreign trade balance (% GDP) | -12.10 | -9.50 | -7.80 | To the downside | -8.20 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
Unemployment rate (%, eop) | 10.50 | 9.40 | 10.30 | Neutral | 10.80 | Neutral | mar 11, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Inflation (%, avg) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, eop) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, avg) |
---|
Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
ARS/USD (level, eop) |
---|
ARS/USD (level, avg) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 5.00 | -1.50 | -4.00 | To the downside | 6.00 | To the downside | mar 08, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 94.80 | 211.40 | 175.00 | To the upside | 50.00 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
Inflation (%, avg) | 72.40 | 133.50 | 272.80 | To the upside | 66.30 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, eop) | 75.00 | 100.00 | 56.00 | To the upside | 39.20 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, avg) | 58.70 | 101.00 | 91.30 | To the upside | 45.60 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -2.40 | -2.70 | -0.80 | Neutral | 0.00 | To the downside | mar 08, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -0.70 | -3.30 | 0.80 | Neutral | 0.00 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
ARS/USD (level, eop) | 177.10 | 808.50 | 1,500.00 | To the upside | 2,108.00 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
ARS/USD (level, avg) | 130.70 | 296.50 | 1,166.20 | To the upside | 1,787.00 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Inflation (%, avg) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, eop) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, avg) |
---|
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
COP/USD (level, eop) |
---|
COP/USD (level, avg) |
---|
Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] |
---|
Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 7.30 | 0.60 | 1.50 | -- | 2.80 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 13.10 | 9.30 | 5.40 | -- | 3.80 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Inflation (%, avg) | 10.20 | 11.70 | 6.80 | -- | 4.10 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, eop) | 12.00 | 13.00 | 7.00 | -- | 5.50 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, avg) | 7.88 | 13.13 | 9.98 | -- | 5.83 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -5.30 | -4.30 | -5.20 | -- | -3.90 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -6.20 | -2.70 | -3.40 | -- | -3.90 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
COP/USD (level, eop) | 4,788.00 | 3,954.00 | 4,365.00 | -- | 4,365.00 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
COP/USD (level, avg) | 4,256.20 | 4,326.00 | 4,236.70 | -- | 4,352.60 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] | 20.70 | -17.40 | 10.40 | -- | 0.00 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] | 13.70 | 1.60 | -2.10 | -- | 2.70 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Inflation (%, avg) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, eop) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, avg) |
---|
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
CNY/USD (level, eop) |
---|
CNY/USD (level, avg) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 3.00 | 5.20 | 4.60 | To the upside | 4.20 | To the upside | mar 09, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 1.80 | -0.80 | 2.00 | To the downside | 1.80 | To the downside | mar 09, 2024 |
Inflation (%, avg) | 2.00 | 0.20 | 1.40 | To the downside | 1.80 | To the downside | mar 09, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, eop) | 3.65 | 3.45 | 3.25 | Neutral | 3.15 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, avg) | 3.70 | 3.60 | 3.40 | Neutral | 3.15 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -5.00 | -5.10 | -4.00 | Neutral | -4.00 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 2.20 | 1.50 | 1.20 | Neutral | 0.90 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
CNY/USD (level, eop) | 6.90 | 7.10 | 6.95 | Neutral | 6.80 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
CNY/USD (level, avg) | 6.73 | 7.10 | 7.00 | Neutral | 6.80 | Neutral | mar 09, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, eop) |
---|
10y bond (%, eop) |
---|
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
PEN/USD (level, eop) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 2.70 | -0.60 | 2.70 | Neutral | 2.90 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 8.50 | 3.20 | 2.60 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | apr 23, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, eop) | 7.50 | 6.75 | 4.75 | Neutral | 4.50 | Neutral | apr 23, 2024 |
10y bond (%, eop) | 7.83 | 6.82 | 7.20 | Neutral | 7.05 | Neutral | apr 23, 2024 |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -1.70 | -2.80 | -2.30 | To the upside | -2.20 | To the upside | apr 23, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -4.00 | 0.60 | 0.80 | To the upside | 0.20 | To the upside | apr 23, 2024 |
PEN/USD (level, eop) | 3.83 | 3.74 | 3.88 | To the downside | 3.75 | Neutral | apr 23, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, eop) |
---|
Inflation (%, avg) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, eop) |
---|
Official interest rate (%, avg) |
---|
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
---|
Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
---|
UYU/USD (level, eop) |
---|
UYU/USD (level, avg) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 4.90 | 0.60 | 3.30 | To the upside | 2.70 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
Inflation (%, eop) | 8.30 | 5.10 | 6.40 | To the upside | 6.40 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
Inflation (%, avg) | 9.10 | 5.90 | 5.70 | To the upside | 5.70 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, eop) | 11.50 | 9.00 | 8.00 | To the upside | 7.00 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
Official interest rate (%, avg) | 9.30 | 10.60 | 8.90 | To the upside | 7.40 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -3.40 | -3.80 | -3.10 | Neutral | -2.60 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -3.70 | -3.60 | -2.10 | Neutral | -1.20 | Neutral | mar 08, 2024 |
UYU/USD (level, eop) | 38.90 | 39.30 | 42.30 | To the upside | 44.50 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
UYU/USD (level, avg) | 41.20 | 38.80 | 40.60 | To the upside | 43.50 | To the upside | mar 08, 2024 |
|
---|
GDP (%) |
---|
Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) |
---|
Inflation (%, avg) |
---|
Fed interest rate (%, eop) |
---|
Fed interest rate (%, avg) |
---|
10y T bond (%, eop) |
---|
10y T bond (%, avg) |
---|
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
GDP (%) | 1.90 | 2.50 | 1.90 | Neutral | 2.30 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) | 7.10 | 3.20 | 2.60 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Inflation (%, avg) | 8.00 | 4.10 | 2.70 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Fed interest rate (%, eop) | 4.50 | 5.50 | 4.50 | Neutral | 3.00 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
Fed interest rate (%, avg) | 2.02 | 5.23 | 5.08 | Neutral | 3.63 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
10y T bond (%, eop) | 3.60 | 4.00 | 3.90 | Neutral | 3.70 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
10y T bond (%, avg) | 3.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | Neutral | 3.80 | Neutral | mar 13, 2024 |
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | FORECAST |
---|
| | | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | FORECAST | BALANCE OF RISK | DATE |
Brent Oil price (USD/b) Year avg | 99.10 | 82.20 | 82.40 | -- | 79.80 | -- | mar 07, 2024 |
Copper price (¢USD/lb.) Year avg | 400.00 | 385.00 | 406.00 | Neutral | 411.00 | Neutral | apr 23, 2024 |
Soybean price (USD/ton) Year avg | 569.60 | 520.40 | 434.10 | To the downside | 435.00 | To the downside | mar 08, 2024 |