Economic forecasts
In this section, you will find forecasts by year from our economic analyses. Select the geography for which you wish to see data, or select data for "Commodities".
Eurozone
| GDP (YoY, %) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Inflation (%, avg) |
| ECB interest rate (%, eop) |
| ECB interest rate (%, avg) |
| 10y Bund yield (%, eop) |
| 10y Bund yield (%, avg) |
| USD/EUR (level, eop) |
| USD/EUR (level, avg) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (YoY, %) | 0.93 | 1.48 | 0.74 | To the downside | 1.16 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 2.46 | 1.95 | 3.26 | Neutral | 1.66 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 2.35 | 2.13 | 2.94 | Neutral | 1.88 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| ECB interest rate (%, eop) | 3.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | To the upside | 2.50 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| ECB interest rate (%, avg) | 3.69 | 2.21 | 2.15 | To the upside | 2.40 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| 10y Bund yield (%, eop) | 2.22 | 2.84 | 2.95 | To the upside | 3.05 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| 10y Bund yield (%, avg) | 2.34 | 3.10 | 2.93 | To the upside | 3.00 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| USD/EUR (level, eop) | 1.05 | 1.17 | 1.20 | To the downside | 1.22 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
| USD/EUR (level, avg) | 1.08 | 1.13 | 1.18 | To the downside | 1.21 | Neutral | jun 08, 2026 |
Mexico
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) |
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Monetary policy rate (%, eop) |
| MXN/USD (level, eop) |
| 10y bond (M10, %, eop) |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 1.20 | 0.70 | 1.20 | Neutral | 1.80 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Formal Employment (%yoy, eop) | 1.00 | 1.30 | 1.40 | Neutral | 2.00 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 4.20 | 3.70 | 4.10 | Neutral | 3.50 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Monetary policy rate (%, eop) | 10.00 | 7.00 | 6.50 | Neutral | 6.50 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| MXN/USD (level, eop) | 20.30 | 18.10 | 17.80 | Neutral | 18.00 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| 10y bond (M10, %, eop) | 10.40 | 9.10 | 8.70 | Neutral | 8.20 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Fiscal balance (% GDP) | -4.90 | -3.90 | -3.90 | Neutral | -3.60 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -0.30 | -0.60 | -0.50 | Neutral | -0.90 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
Spain
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Inflation (%, avg) |
| 10y bond (%, eop) |
| 10y bond (%, avg) |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| Employment growth (%yoy, avg) |
| Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 3.50 | 2.80 | 2.40 | Neutral | 2.10 | Neutral | jun 10, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 2.90 | 2.90 | 4.30 | Neutral | 2.50 | Neutral | jun 10, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 2.80 | 2.70 | 3.80 | Neutral | 2.80 | Neutral | jun 10, 2026 |
| 10y bond (%, eop) | 2.90 | 3.30 | 3.40 | To the upside | 3.70 | To the upside | jun 10, 2026 |
| 10y bond (%, avg) | 3.10 | 3.20 | 3.40 | To the upside | 3.50 | To the upside | jun 10, 2026 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -3.20 | -2.40 | -2.80 | Neutral | -2.50 | Neutral | jun 10, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 3.40 | 3.20 | 2.70 | Neutral | 1.70 | Neutral | jun 10, 2026 |
| Employment growth (%yoy, avg) | 2.80 | 3.10 | 2.50 | Neutral | 1.70 | Neutral | jun 10, 2026 |
| Unemployment rate (% Labour Force, avg) | 11.40 | 10.50 | 9.90 | Neutral | 9.60 | Neutral | jun 10, 2026 |
Türkiye
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| USD/TRY (end of period) |
| EUR/TRY (end of period) |
| 1 week repo rate (policy rate) |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| Foreign trade balance (% GDP) |
| Unemployment rate (%, eop) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 3.30 | 3.60 | 3.00 | To the downside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 44.40 | 30.90 | 30.00 | To the upside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| USD/TRY (end of period) | 35.28 | 42.85 | 52.00 | Neutral | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| EUR/TRY (end of period) | 36.74 | 50.29 | 62.20 | To the downside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| 1 week repo rate (policy rate) | 47.50 | 38.00 | 37.00 | To the downside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -4.70 | -2.90 | -3.80 | To the downside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -1.00 | -1.90 | -3.50 | To the downside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| Foreign trade balance (% GDP) | -6.10 | -5.80 | -7.50 | To the downside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
| Unemployment rate (%, eop) | 8.70 | 8.40 | 8.60 | To the upside | -- | -- | jun 16, 2026 |
Argentina
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Inflation (%, avg) |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
| Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| ARS/USD (level, eop) |
| ARS/USD (level, avg) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | -1.40 | 4.50 | 3.00 | To the upside | 3.00 | Neutral | jun 25, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 117.80 | 31.50 | 29.00 | To the upside | 20.00 | To the upside | jun 25, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 219.90 | 41.90 | 32.40 | To the upside | 20.90 | To the upside | jun 25, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 32.00 | 28.90 | 21.00 | To the upside | 20.00 | Neutral | jun 25, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 53.90 | 36.80 | 24.60 | To the upside | 20.50 | Neutral | jun 25, 2026 |
| Primary Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | 1.80 | 1.40 | 1.50 | Neutral | 1.50 | Neutral | jun 25, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 0.90 | -1.10 | -0.30 | To the downside | -0.20 | To the downside | jun 25, 2026 |
| ARS/USD (level, eop) | 1,032.50 | 1,459.40 | 1,760.00 | To the upside | 2,200.00 | To the upside | jun 25, 2026 |
| ARS/USD (level, avg) | 916.30 | 1,243.80 | 1,507.20 | To the upside | 1,990.70 | To the upside | jun 25, 2026 |
Colombia
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Inflation (%, avg) |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| COP/USD (level, eop) |
| COP/USD (level, avg) |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 1.50 | 2.60 | 2.60 | -- | 2.10 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 5.20 | 5.10 | 7.00 | -- | 5.60 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 6.60 | 5.10 | 6.00 | -- | 6.70 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 9.50 | 9.25 | 12.25 | -- | 11.25 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 11.10 | 9.31 | 11.67 | -- | 12.08 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -1.70 | -2.40 | -2.60 | -- | -2.90 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| COP/USD (level, eop) | 4,386.20 | 3,794.90 | 3,640.00 | -- | 3,720.00 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| COP/USD (level, avg) | 4,074.41 | 4,053.10 | 3,627.90 | -- | 3,697.80 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, eop) [positive means depreciation] | 10.93 | -13.48 | -4.08 | -- | 2.20 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
| Exchange rate depreciation (yoy, %, avg) [positive means depreciation] | -5.81 | -0.52 | -10.49 | -- | 1.93 | -- | jun 12, 2026 |
China
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Inflation (%, avg) |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| CNY/USD (level, eop) |
| CNY/USD (level, avg) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.50 | To the upside | 4.20 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 0.10 | 0.80 | 1.10 | Neutral | 1.40 | To the downside | jun 11, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 0.24 | 0.05 | 1.20 | To the upside | 1.00 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.00 | Neutral | 3.00 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 4.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | Neutral | 3.00 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -5.50 | -4.04 | -5.50 | Neutral | -5.70 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 2.00 | 3.74 | 3.20 | Neutral | 3.00 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
| CNY/USD (level, eop) | 7.30 | 7.00 | 6.70 | Neutral | 6.60 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
| CNY/USD (level, avg) | 7.20 | 7.17 | 6.80 | Neutral | 6.70 | Neutral | jun 11, 2026 |
Peru
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
| 10y bond (%, eop) |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| PEN/USD (level, eop) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.10 | Neutral | 3.50 | Neutral | jun 23, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 2.00 | 1.50 | 4.10 | Neutral | 2.30 | Neutral | jun 23, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 5.00 | 4.25 | 4.75 | To the downside | 4.25 | Neutral | jun 23, 2026 |
| 10y bond (%, eop) | 6.77 | 6.17 | 6.35 | To the downside | 6.10 | Neutral | jun 23, 2026 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -3.40 | -2.20 | -2.10 | To the upside | -1.90 | To the upside | jun 23, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | 2.40 | 3.50 | 3.40 | To the upside | 1.90 | To the upside | jun 23, 2026 |
| PEN/USD (level, eop) | 3.74 | 3.37 | 3.25 | Neutral | 3.25 | Neutral | jun 23, 2026 |
Uruguay
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, eop) |
| Inflation (%, avg) |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) |
| UYU/USD (level, eop) |
| UYU/USD (level, avg) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 3.30 | 1.80 | 1.30 | To the upside | 1.80 | To the upside | jun 22, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, eop) | 5.50 | 3.70 | 4.50 | Neutral | 4.50 | Neutral | jun 22, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 4.80 | 4.70 | 3.90 | Neutral | 4.10 | Neutral | jun 22, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, eop) | 8.80 | 7.50 | 5.80 | Neutral | 6.00 | Neutral | jun 22, 2026 |
| Official interest rate (%, avg) | 8.60 | 8.70 | 5.80 | Neutral | 6.00 | Neutral | jun 22, 2026 |
| Fiscal Balance (% GDP) | -4.50 | -4.80 | -4.70 | To the downside | -4.60 | To the downside | jun 22, 2026 |
| Current Account Balance (% GDP) | -0.80 | -0.40 | -1.10 | To the downside | -1.40 | To the downside | jun 22, 2026 |
| UYU/USD (level, eop) | 43.90 | 39.20 | 41.00 | To the upside | 42.90 | To the upside | jun 22, 2026 |
| UYU/USD (level, avg) | 40.20 | 41.10 | 40.10 | To the upside | 42.00 | To the upside | jun 22, 2026 |
| GDP (%) |
|---|
| Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) |
| Inflation (%, avg) |
| Fed interest rate (%, eop) |
| Fed interest rate (%, avg) |
| 10y T bond (%, eop) |
| 10y T bond (%, avg) |
| 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast Date | |||
| GDP (%) | 2.80 | 2.10 | 2.40 | Neutral | 2.20 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, 4Qo4Q) | 2.70 | 2.80 | 3.40 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Inflation (%, avg) | 3.00 | 2.70 | 3.50 | Neutral | 2.40 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Fed interest rate (%, eop) | 4.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | Neutral | 3.25 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| Fed interest rate (%, avg) | 5.27 | 4.35 | 3.75 | Neutral | 3.52 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| 10y T bond (%, eop) | 4.40 | 4.10 | 4.40 | Neutral | 4.30 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
| 10y T bond (%, avg) | 4.20 | 4.30 | 4.40 | Neutral | 4.30 | Neutral | jun 18, 2026 |
Commodities
| FORECAST | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | FORECAST | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecast | Balance of risk | Forecast | Balance of risk | Date | |||
| Brent Oil price (USD/b) Year avg | 80.20 | 68.30 | 90.10 | -- | 71.60 | -- | may 25, 2026 |
| Copper price (¢USD/lb.) Year avg | 417.00 | 449.00 | 593.00 | To the upside | 563.00 | To the upside | dec 23, 2026 |
| Soybean price (USD/ton) Year avg | 405.20 | 382.00 | 428.30 | To the downside | 426.30 | To the downside | jun 25, 2026 |