Publications

Economic activity slowed down in March to 3.2% year-on-year, led by non-primary GDP, which reflects the recovery of private investment and the strength of the labor market. So far this year, GDP has accumulated growth of 3.5%.

GDP grew by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2026, a figure similar to that reported for the fourth quarter of 2025. This growth was driven primarily by final consumption and investment in machinery and equipment.

The BCRP held its rate at 4.25% for the eighth straight month, in line with market expectations. Both headline (4.0%) and core (4.4%) inflation remain above the target range, and the communiqué now points to a longer timeline for convergence. We maintain our stable-rate forecast with an upward bias.

April's CPI posted a 2.6% m/m increase (32.4% y/y, with a 12.3% YTD print for 2026), representing the most significant disinflationary milestone since December 2025. The monthly print was in line with consensus, matching market expectations.

Headline inflation slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, driven primarily by energy prices and, to a lesser extent, services. Meanwhile, core inflation moderated to 2.8%. However, BBVA Research estimates that headline inflation could rise to 3.4% or 3.5% in May.

Catalonia is set to maintain solid growth in 2026 despite geopolitical and trade headwinds, supported by consumption, employment, and tourism.

The update of the DiGiX index evaluates the digital readiness of 96 economies through six key dimensions, using 2024 data. It incorporates new indicators on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and infrastructure, highlighting the strong correlation between ecosystem maturity and the level of economic development.