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Consumer prices increased by 2.30% in November, leading the annual inflation to reach 14.03% up from 11.9% in October. Cost push factors continued to weigh on the upside as domestic producer prices rose by 4% mom. After today's spike, we expect inflation to end 2020 at near 14% and maintain 2021 year-end forecast at 11%.
December 3, 2020
Colombia | A path to walk together: Gender inclusion, recovery and sustainable growth
In Colombia there is a significant gender gap, especially for sectors of the labor market with high female participation, when analyzing the history it is obtained that the pandemic exacerbated this inequity, so it is necessary to work on policies that promote female inclusion to confront the deterioration.
The labor market continued its recovery process in October, but it slowed down. Job creation was more related to the economic recovery and less to sectoral openings. Moving forward, the slow recovery of the labor market will continue
December 2, 2020
Colombia | Weekly update BBVA Tracker: Consumption and Investment. 2 December, 2020.
Consumption in November grows 13.6% y/y thanks to the impulse of the day without VAT, services continue to recover but remain in negative territory.On the other hand, investment continues to show marginal improvements associated with a lagging construction component but greater dynamic in machinery and equipment.
We prefer to support the argument that a neutral, prudent but accommodative monetary policy will be the main monetary policy stance in 2021, while the authorities will postpone the beginning of a real tightening cycle and “proactive deleveraging” to a later stage.
The GDP of Murcia may shrink by 10% this year and grow by 6% in 2021. Almost 6,000 jobs could be destroyed. The impact of the crisis was heterogeneous in the first half of the year, as was the recovery. Public policies allow for less job destruction, but the risks bias the outlook downwards.
Affiliation increased by 31,600, but did not prevent an upsurge in unemployment (25,300). Discounting negative seasonality, employment grew by 81,000, 24,000 more than in October, while unemployment stopped its downward trend (7,000). The impact of the crisis is still substantial: -790,000 affiliates and 760,000 unemployed.
This Economic Watch assesses the factors that explain the cyclical behavior of the Spanish economy during the COVID-19 crisis. This is done using the data observed up to 3Q20 and the (2020) forecasts by BBVA Research for 4Q20, which are exogenous to the model.