May 23, 2019
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With how much fiscal space does the country have? Is there a possibility of contracting more debt to support Pemex or to face a possible recession with a countercyclical fiscal expansion? To answer these questions, it is necessary to analyze the profile of Mexico's public debt.
Safe-haven bond yields continued to trend lower, dragged by the ongoing US-China trade strains, alongside the release of a gloomy business survey in Europe and increasing anxiety over a no-deal Brexit
Up to March hard data was mixed: retail sales are still strong, but contrast with the weakness of industrial sector and global trade. Soft data slid again in April: manufacturing confidence remains gloomy, while services PMIs fell in DM and EM increasing concerns about contagion effects from trade and manufacturing.
This work marks the start of a series of projects that will analyse the evolution of GDP per capital in Spain's autonomous communities and its determining factors, using the related series of regional income and employment found in the RegData database described by De la Fuente (2017).
Financial markets trade in a cautious fashion, as investors wait for new developments in the US-China trade dispute, amid the US mulling over whether or not to add five new Chinese technology firms to a blacklist. The lack of support of May’s new Brexit plan also increase the risk-off mood.
May 22, 2019
In July, the current economic expansion will reach 121 months, becoming the longest in modern history. Barring any shocks, inflation-adjusted GDP will average more than $21T in 2019 and by the end of the year real GDP per capita will surpass $58K.
May 21, 2019
Core inflation will likely fall back within the narrow range in which it has fluctuated for the past year.
May 21, 2019
During the 1Q19, the fall in economic activity had a significant influence on traditional deposits, whose nominal annual growth of 7.8% (3.5% real) is the lowest since the end of 2013. This behavior is supported, mainly, in the stagnation of demand deposits, which predominated over the dynamism of time deposits.