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Over the last few weeks we have been reviewing our global and local economic outlook scenario and the year economic performance has been especially challenging due to the change in international conditions, mainly.
July 19, 2019
Mexico | The effects of economic weakness are accentuated over traditional bank deposits
The continued decline in the pace of economic activity and the risks in both commercial and economic policy have had an adverse influence on deposits of the banking system, to the point that the nominal growth of the traditional deposits during May 2019 was located at its lowest level since the end of 2013.
We maintain our GDP forecast fall of 1.2% in 2019, which will grow quarterly form 2Q-19 due to the recovery of agricultural campaign and the reduction of FX market tensions. By 2020, the economy will have processed the tensions caused by the electoral uncertainty and will grow by 2.5% as private domestic demand recovers.
July 19, 2019
Market Comment | Bonds regain favor as easing expectations from the Fed and ECB strengthen
This week, markets turned increasingly optimistic about the potential for more aggressive pre-emptive easing by major central banks. U.S. - China trade talks seem to be stalling once again, while both U.S. economic data and company earnings released this week were mixed, and European data came in softer.
Insurance growth, following a steady progress during the past years, will slow to 2,8% in 2020. The implementation of the autonomous car would imply a reduction in the number of accidents and the cost of premiums. People who subscribe health insurance have healthy lifestyles and are generally healthier than the rest.
The slow progress in the initial trade demands of U.S and China is raising doubts as to whether they will be able to overcome their much deeper differences. Bloomberg reported that the ECB is considering modifying its inflation target to adapt it to the post-crisis era.
Economic growth will continue to be led by investment in view of the expected stabilisation in consumption spending. We estimate GDP growth in 2019 and 2020 will be at 3.0% each year and inflation at 3.3% and 3.2%, respectively. The Central Bank will keep its interest rates stable for a long time.