Publications

The economy is showing a growth pattern similar to that of the years prior to the global financial crisis, driven by the same combination of factors. The risk—just as back then, and without necessarily leading to the same outcome—is that this model could generate imbalances if it is not accompanied by structural reforms.

The Turkish economy grew by 1.0% q/q in 1Q25, leading to an annual growth rate of 2.0%. Our monthly GDP indicator nowcasts a deceleration to a quarterly growth nearing 0% in 2Q25, which would start improving in 3Q25 with more supportive conditions.

Colombia’s economy grew 2.7% y/y in Q1 2025, led by household consumption. Investment weakened and sectors showed mixed results. Growth is projected at around 2.5% in 2025, with resilient domestic demand but ongoing challenges in investment and the external environment.

High frequency data for 1Q25 point that the q/q growth will likely remain steady as in 4Q24, supported by the domestic demand. Despite the uncertainty on trade wars and recent tightening in financial conditions, we evaluate risks as balanced on our 2025 GDP growth forecast of 3.5%, given the strong buffer of 1Q25 growth.

GDP grew 1.7% in 2024, led by domestic demand (+2.2%). Private consumption (1.6%) was driven by a rebound in durable goods and services, while fixed investment (3.0%) grew due to machinery, equipment, and civil works. In 2025, growth is expected at 2.5%, with better financial conditions but fiscal and global risks.

Incoming hard data points to a faster recovery in 4Q24 than our previous stagnant growth expectation on quarterly basis. We expect the GDP growth to reach around 3% in 2024 but acknowledge some upside risks recently emerge on our 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%.

This study provides an overview of consumption patterns in Colombia, analyzing how purchasing power and demographic shifts influence household decisions. It also explores changes in the consumer basket and the impact of digital trends on Colombians' preferences.