Publications

Spain began 2026 with persistent storms, making it one of the wettest Januaries in decades. Unevenly distributed water gains, both geographically and over time, highlight hydroclimatic volatility as increasingly relevant to Spain’s outlook.

The Colombian electricity system stands out for its renewable matrix, high coverage, and regional resilience. Demand is growing steadily and supply is gradually advancing, in a context where diversification of sources and thermal backup will be key to maintaining reliability.

Although renewables such as solar and wind power can pose problems with intermittency, dispatching the most expensive and most polluting electricity first is not the answer.

Industrial production growth was up to 10%, from 2Q’s 4.6%. Adding up to the previous year’s contraction our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY Index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 7.9% yoy (94% info) growth for 3Q. Our models suggest strong growth pattern in for the beginning of 4Q as well, in line with our 6% 2017 GDP growth forecast but with risks that could be on the upside.

Industrial production in July grew by 14.5% yoy (cal.adj.). Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% GDP growth for 2Q and hints even higher performance for 3Q. Considering also an acceleration in 3Q with both base impact and enhanced activity, we believe that the risks on our 5% GDP growth expectation for 2017 are clearly on the upside.

Annual growth in industrial production (IP) was 3.4% yoy in June (cal. adj.) confirming our robust economic activity forecast for overall 2Q, as IP growth in 2Q reached up to 4.5% yoy from 1Q’s 2.1% reading. Our monthly GDP indicator (GBTRGDPY index at Bloomberg) nowcasts 5.1% YoY GDP growth in 2Q. We think that risks are on the upside for our 5% growth estimate for 2017.