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Inflation is falling and over the coming months various factors are expected to place it around, or below, 2%. Nonetheless, pressure from higher labor costs and geopolitical uncertainty could make for a bumpy ride.

At the height of the storm, we are seeing the world slowing down as inflation remains high, partly due to high commodity prices... a relentless bidding war between supply and demand from which neither will benefit.

La inflación anual al consumidor ha alcanzado su nivel más alto en los últimos 22 años. Esperamos cerrar este año en 9,2 % con una moderación para 2023 y que se consolidará en 2024, explicada por dos factores principales: el efecto base y la moderación de la demanda y de las presiones de costos.

April's inflation was the highest figure for the year but we believe it is a transitory increase and that at the end of the year it will return to the Bank of the Republic's target of 3% per year. Inflation recently published for April surprised the rise and stood at 0.5% per month above expectations.

Consumer prices increased 0.55% (mom) in July below our estimate and market consensus (0.9% vs. 1%), leading the annual figure to rise to 15.85% from 15.39% in June. The downside surprise came from the lower food inflation than our expectation, while the worsening in core inflation continued as annual core inflation reached 15.1%.

The Central Bank (CBRT) kept the entire set of its interest rate corridor unchanged. The Bank also preserved the hawkish tone by over looking the expected disinflationary impacts of the fall in energy prices and partial correction in food prices. We expect the Bank to keep the average funding rate close to 12% until the next monetary policy meeting in July.