Publications

Presented at the 13th BBVA Seminar for Public Sector Investors and Issuers (Lisbon, June 2026), this presentation explores how AI helps monitor geopolitical risks and their economic and financial impact.

The world faces climatic, geopolitical, demographic, and technological uncertainties. Distinguishing between probabilistic, rare-event, and epistemic uncertainty helps turn fog into useful knowledge and enables more lucid, resilient decision-making.

On the 70th anniversary of China, violent protests took place in Hong Kong. Meanwhile hope has increased for US-China trade talks. US House announced that would officially launch an impeachment inquiry against Trump. In UK, the Brexit agenda has intensified. Drone attacks against Saudi oil facilities have increased risks.

Protests in Hong Kong escalated further in August. Possible Chinese attempts to interfere in the political crisis in Hong Kong could trigger more risks. Meanwhile, China and the United States retaliated against each other with new tariffs signaling that the trade rift will continue for a while.

In June, the dispute between Iran and the United States faced with risky attempts including downing a U.S. drone. European political agenda will be worth monitoring even in the next month due to busy political calendar especially in the U.K. and in Italy. U.S. and China are seeking ways to reinstate trade talks.

BBVA Research presentation in one of the most important analytics conferences in Europe in Big Data, Artificial Intelligence, Cloud Technologies, IoT, Machine Learning and Digital Transformation.

Tensions continued between North Korea and US over the nuclear test programme and the US increased its missile defence system in the area. China will continue to maintain the statuo quo while the tone of the US escalated but softened thereafter. In the Middle East, the advances of the coalition forces continue against ISIS. The US supported the YPG's advance in Raqqa.