Publications

The overall total FX position of the economy deteriorated in 4Q24. Public sector’s short FX position continues to decline whereas private sector’s long position deteriorates due to the real sector.

Wealth stagnation may be influencing consumption and investment decisions. The recovery of prices in the real estate sector will help to improve the trend. However, the concentration of wealth in housing has negative externalities.

Several institutions, including BBVA Research, have upgraded their GDP expectations for Spain. However, different factors are limiting the growth of private consumption.

The indebtedness of different agents remains below that of peers. The composition of external debt has been shifting among the borrowers since 2018. There is the increasing trend led by public, compared to the ongoing decline in the private sector.

At the dawn of a possible new crisis derived from inflationary pressures, it is worth asking how Spanish households are doing in terms of their balance sheet of financial assets and liabilities, and whether we should be concerned about rising interest rates.

Household savings increased significantly during the second quarter of 2020, reaching 24.4% of gross disposable income. That is more than double the previous high seen in 2009. There are several reasons for this.

A recent BBVA Research study shows that the likelihood of buying a car declined during the crisis, and has barely gained momentum in recovery.

Modern retail sales will show a good performance in the remainder of this year and next. Later, with the demographic bonus, the increase in the purchasing power of households, and the growing access to digital media that will boost online sales, the sector has room to continue expanding.