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At its May meeting, the Board of the Central Bank lowered the reference interest rate to 4.50%. The monetary policy stance, understood as the ex-ante real reference rate, thus stands close to the level estimated to be neutral.

The BBVA Forum is a quarterly event aimed at the bank's clients. In each edition, we present a summary of our global and national economic outlook as a contribution to their short- and medium-term financial decisions.

In the global scenario, restrictive monetary policy will contribute to the gradual slowdown. The Colombian economy navigates the waters of an orderly deceleration in the coming quarters and with the capacity to continue growing 1.2% in 2023 and 1.5% in 2024, decelerating from high levels.

The Central Bank of Turkey (CBRT) maintained the policy rate (one-week repo) at 19% in line with the expectations. Given the rising upside risks on inflation outlook and potentially increasing global yields, we expect the CBRT to start an easing cycle only very gradually in October and end the year with 17.5% policy rate.

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la evolución de la tasa de interés real en México, y estimar una tasa natural real teórica.