Publications

Once again, a critical date in the U.S. fiscal calendar is approaching. If Congress does not approve an increase in the federal government's budget by September 30, the executive branch will be forced to enact a shutdown on October 1.

2023 is a year with a heavy electoral calendar, in a context of growing social concern regarding macroeconomic imbalances and a historic drought. We expect sustained pressures in the FX market throughout the year, with consequences on the GDP and financial volatility.

Although the capacity to pay, as expressed by the debt-to-GDP ratios, does not seem unsustainable, the government should promote fiscal consolidation in order to prevent the debt from continuing to increase after 2022, ensuring sustainability in the medium term and the preservation of the Investor Grade.

Twenty years ago, the Spanish economy started its journey into the 21st century after joining the eurozone in 1999. Since then, Spain has faced two economic expansions and two intense crises of a very different nature, with important consequences for economic policy.

In recent months we have witnessed a notable compression in sovereign CDS at the global level, in an economic scenario that is full of uncertainty and in which public debt is at an all-time high.

European banks hold sovereign debt on their balance sheet for multiple reasons. Firstly, sovereigns are eligible in order to comply with liquidity requirements. In addition, they can be used as collateral in the private repurchase markets ("repo") and to obtain funds from the central bank.