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In the third week of February, the recovery in spending across the affected Andalusian provinces consolidated following improved weather conditions and the reopening of the Madrid–Andalusia railway line. Consumption accelerated and, in many cases, outpaced growth in the rest of Spain.

In the second week of February, in-person spending in the affected Andalusian provinces almost fully reversed the negative impact of heavy rainfall and flooding. However, tourism-related spending, both foreign and interprovincial, continues to show weakness due to the ongoing railway disruption with Madrid.

After two weeks of railway disruption, consumption in the affected provinces shows a more generalized slowdown. Growth in domestic card spending moderates, while foreign card spending has already turned negative. The largest impact continues to be concentrated in bilateral flows between Madrid and the affected provinces.

Following the disruption of rail traffic between Madrid and Andalusia, no significant aggregate impacts on total consumption in the affected provinces have been observed so far. However, there are emerging signs of a slowdown in bilateral trade between Madrid and these regions.

In 2026, the World Cup, the USMCA review, and ties with the U.S. will place Mexico under global scrutiny. Tourism will be the first test: the visitor experience will determine whether the impact is fleeting or structurally transformative.

The GDP growth forecast is revised upwards to 3.0% (+0.5 pp) in 2025 and 2.3% (+0.6 pp) in 2026. The improvement reflects resilience to rising tariffs, reduced tariff policy uncertainty, and a greater impact of NGEU funds.

In 2024, The GPD of the Canary Islands could have grown by 3.7%, and is expected to increase by 3.4% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. This strength is due to the robust performance of the services sector, particularly in tourism, as well as the domestic demand, where consumer spending has been increasing its weight.