Publications

Here are all of our publications listed chronologically. You can also find the publications relating to single geography under “Publications by geography” or narrow down your search using the “Advanced filter”.

Latest publications on Uncertainty

Spain | Basque Country Economic Outlook 2025

25 June 2025

In 2024, the GDP of the Basque Country could have grown by 2.4%, and is expected to increase by 2.3% in 2025 and 1.4% in 2026. Going forward, the evolution of activity will be marked by high economic and tariff policy uncertainty and the slow recovery in Europe.

Global | Geopolitics and economic traps

26 August 2024

Geopolitical uncertainty threatens to exacerbate the growth traps that plague many countries at different levels of development.

Global | Transition towards decarbonization. Challenges, levers and investment needs

12 July 2024

In the face of increasing evidence of the consequences of human-caused climate change, inaction is not an option. Climate mitigation and adaptation policies must be further promoted, including appropriate incentives to finance investment needs of uncertain estimation.

Spain | The effect of uncertainty in Catalonia: a synthetic control analysis

23 October 2018

Private sector Social Security registrations in Catalonia have slowed down markedly since mid-2017. The analysis presented suggests that the increased uncertainty in the region had a negative effect on employment, reducing job creation by about 30,000 jobs.

Are we wrong about Catalonia?

22 January 2018

The fact that we are not seeing any significant deterioration in activity, in view of the uncertainty arising from the political environment in Catalonia, has cast doubt on estimates of the negative impact that these events could be having. It is very likely that the increased uncertainty is reducing the Spanish economy’s capacity for growth.

A good year, with lots of doubts

2 January 2018

The year 2017 started with plenty of uncertainty for the global economy. President Trump had just been elected, the emerging economies were not doing particularly well and Europe was facing a difficult electoral cycle, with the memory of the Brexit referendum still fresh.

U.S. | Economic uncertainty: no relief for faint-hearted

29 July 2016

Two year highs in uncertainty inauspicious sign for growth in 2016. Lending activity could suffer if banks grow wary of economic outlook. Likelihood of Fed raising rates low amidst geopolitical or policy tumult

Consumo en tiempos de incertidumbre

14 July 2016

Decía Kant que la inteligencia de un individuo se mide por la cantidad de incertidumbre que es capaz de soportar. A la vista de las cifras de consumo, alguien podría concluir que los españoles destacan por su clarividencia y erudición.

Rational Expectations

15 February 2016

I am part of a cult. At least that is the perception of many economists when I tell them that I studied for my Ph.D. in Minnesota. Since 2000, 6 people who studied or pursued the most important part of their research agenda at the Faculty of Economics of the University of Minnesota have won the Nobel Prize.

Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty,Communication and Transparency

1 June 2009

In this paper we suggest a set of indicators about the future performance of the Spanish public pension system

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